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...AND IT WON'T for a VERY LONG TIME. Those of us who know the origins of Ray Kurzweil, knew back then he was nothing special, and his ideas were derived from m

...AND IT WON'T for a VERY LONG TIME. Those of us who know the origins of Ray Kurzweil, knew back then he was nothing special, and his ideas were derived from much smarter people around him. As I recall, the article in WIRED from like 20 years ago, talked about how he missed his dad, and how in the future you would be able to take a room full of all his dad's old crap, and AI would be able to recompile his dad into dad 2.0 in the cloud! (he didn't use these terms but that was the gist of the ridiculous and absurd WIRED article interview with him.) Why do I bring up Ray? It's because circus acts like Ray and the Singularity University, sold a bunch of people certain goods, which were VASTLY overestimated in terms of delivery times, and in terms of the good themselves. First of all, many folks don't want to admit this, but WE MAY NEVER BE ABLE TO CREATE A SYNTHETIC CONSCIOUSNESS! I think we will eventually, but it's definitely not a certainty. It just may not be possible for a completely synthetic 'consciousness' to exist. This type of hype has become almost religious in nature, just like the folks who really think Moore's Law is an actual scientific law and not just an observation and prediction based on very limited data. In conclusion, you'll get your AI just like those folks in the 50's, or was it 60's? ...well anyway, back when they had those world's fairs and predicted flying cars. We're just not there yet. We don't even have basic foundations to build this yet. There is always a possibility of a brilliant individual, who may leapfrog humanity, but for right now, it's just vaporware. AND YES. Even IBM's Watson and Google's GO winning "AI" are just vaporware machine learning and big data sets, it's not AI even a little bit. Sorry folks, I love futurizing, and inventing words ;) , just like everyone else, but... if AI is in the stadium, we aren't even in the parking lot. --- And now, after my rant, I shall read this article since it looks really interesting. I'm surprised it's on Medium.

crististm 8y ago
I've discovered recently the lectures of Prof. Jordan Peterson. You can infer a lot of links between human behavior and shortcomings of AI. In some lectures he even touches the actual problems although on a tangent (e.g. what is relevant in the infinite complexity of the world and on the infinite levels on which you can analyze the world). Long story short, my claim is that the AI revolution will happen when the AI agent will be able to abstract on a task experience and transfer that to a different task AND abstract away that and transfer that to the set of tasks and so on. Sort of like the Alpha Zero would next be able to fly helicopters or wash dishes or cook a meal or whatever. Not anytime soon.
- Bye_Felicia 8y ago
  Thanks for the support. Being the voice of reality is a lonely road, like introducing antibiotics in a petri dish of wildly speculating bacteria, the revulsion is instantaneous. "How dare you claim IBM's Watson isn't BREAKTHROUGH?!" "How dare you not want the same buggy useless software which powers siri and cortana to now be used to drive cars?!" What are you cynical reality based folks talking about! Saudia Arabia granted citizenship to it's first robot. Clearly you hate science! If AI wasn't real yet, why would they do that!? Lifelike 'Sophia' Robot Granted Citizenship to Saudi Arabia https://www.livescience.com/60815-saudi-arabia-citizen-robot.html https://www.livescience.com/60815-saudi-arabia-citizen-robot...
  - MattRix 8y ago
    Saying you don't want self-driving cars really IS insane. They are already way better at driving than humans in many situations, and they are only going to improve with time. Even if you don't believe they are good enough now, to say that they are NEVER going to be good enough is ridiculous.
MattRix 8y ago
Not sure how you can claim things like Deepmind are "vaporware" since it achieved exactly what it was intended to do. If you disagree that it should be called "AI", well that just comes down to semantics, but I think "Artificial Intelligence" is exactly what it is. Of course it will be possible to create synthetic consciousness eventually, why wouldn't it be? It may take 10 years or 10,000 years, but if you think it will never happen for the rest of human existence, that is nonsense. If it already exists in nature, then there is absolutely no reason why it can't be done synthetically.
- Bye_Felicia 8y ago
  This came as no surprise to me, and hence, I was spared the pangs of disillusionment, but there are countless people who have actually dealt with IBM's marketing gimmick, Watson, and have come away with a serious hangover: --- “Watson is a joke,” Chamath Palihapitiya, an influential tech investor who founded the VC firm Social Capital, said on CNBC in May. A Reality Check for IBM’s AI Ambitions - MIT Technology Review https://www.technologyreview.com/s/607965/a-reality-check-for-ibms-ai-ambitions/ https://www.technologyreview.com/s/607965/a-reality-check-fo... Why Everyone Is Hating on IBM Watson—Including the People Who Helped Make It https://gizmodo.com/why-everyone-is-hating-on-watson-including-the-people-w-1797510888 https://gizmodo.com/why-everyone-is-hating-on-watson-includi... Is IBM Watson A 'Joke'? https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbloomberg/2017/07/02/is-ibm-watson-a-joke/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbloomberg/2017/07/02/is-ib... --- The final article, is the most telling, in its revelations. Of course, you must speak the language to understand IBM's gartner magic quadrant-esqe based reasoning: Their argument is because a bunch of businesses they convinced to sign up have 'Watson' stamped on their engagement contracts, it's PROOF that Watson is breakthrough technology, catapulting research into a new era of big data and machine learning....lol I'm not saying some of the things that IBM claims it does, cannot be currently done, but I no doubt at all the IBM is not doing it, and Watson is most certainly behind closed doors a complete joke.
  - MattRix 8y ago
    I didn't even mention Watson, since I know nothing about it. Even if Watson is a complete sham, it doesn't mean ALL AI projects are shams! For example, you can't say that DeepMind is vaporware. AlphaGo is real, and it works. Self-driving cars are real, and they work, etc.

crististm 8y ago

I've discovered recently the lectures of Prof. Jordan Peterson. You can infer a lot of links between human behavior and shortcomings of AI. In some lectures he even touches the actual problems although on a tangent (e.g. what is relevant in the infinite complexity of the world and on the infinite levels on which you can analyze the world). Long story short, my claim is that the AI revolution will happen when the AI agent will be able to abstract on a task experience and transfer that to a different task AND abstract away that and transfer that to the set of tasks and so on. Sort of like the Alpha Zero would next be able to fly helicopters or wash dishes or cook a meal or whatever. Not anytime soon.

Bye_Felicia 8y ago
Thanks for the support. Being the voice of reality is a lonely road, like introducing antibiotics in a petri dish of wildly speculating bacteria, the revulsion is instantaneous. "How dare you claim IBM's Watson isn't BREAKTHROUGH?!" "How dare you not want the same buggy useless software which powers siri and cortana to now be used to drive cars?!" What are you cynical reality based folks talking about! Saudia Arabia granted citizenship to it's first robot. Clearly you hate science! If AI wasn't real yet, why would they do that!? Lifelike 'Sophia' Robot Granted Citizenship to Saudi Arabia https://www.livescience.com/60815-saudi-arabia-citizen-robot.html https://www.livescience.com/60815-saudi-arabia-citizen-robot...
- MattRix 8y ago
  Saying you don't want self-driving cars really IS insane. They are already way better at driving than humans in many situations, and they are only going to improve with time. Even if you don't believe they are good enough now, to say that they are NEVER going to be good enough is ridiculous.

MattRix 8y ago

Not sure how you can claim things like Deepmind are "vaporware" since it achieved exactly what it was intended to do. If you disagree that it should be called "AI", well that just comes down to semantics, but I think "Artificial Intelligence" is exactly what it is. Of course it will be possible to create synthetic consciousness eventually, why wouldn't it be? It may take 10 years or 10,000 years, but if you think it will never happen for the rest of human existence, that is nonsense. If it already exists in nature, then there is absolutely no reason why it can't be done synthetically.

Bye_Felicia 8y ago
This came as no surprise to me, and hence, I was spared the pangs of disillusionment, but there are countless people who have actually dealt with IBM's marketing gimmick, Watson, and have come away with a serious hangover: --- “Watson is a joke,” Chamath Palihapitiya, an influential tech investor who founded the VC firm Social Capital, said on CNBC in May. A Reality Check for IBM’s AI Ambitions - MIT Technology Review https://www.technologyreview.com/s/607965/a-reality-check-for-ibms-ai-ambitions/ https://www.technologyreview.com/s/607965/a-reality-check-fo... Why Everyone Is Hating on IBM Watson—Including the People Who Helped Make It https://gizmodo.com/why-everyone-is-hating-on-watson-including-the-people-w-1797510888 https://gizmodo.com/why-everyone-is-hating-on-watson-includi... Is IBM Watson A 'Joke'? https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbloomberg/2017/07/02/is-ibm-watson-a-joke/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbloomberg/2017/07/02/is-ib... --- The final article, is the most telling, in its revelations. Of course, you must speak the language to understand IBM's gartner magic quadrant-esqe based reasoning: Their argument is because a bunch of businesses they convinced to sign up have 'Watson' stamped on their engagement contracts, it's PROOF that Watson is breakthrough technology, catapulting research into a new era of big data and machine learning....lol I'm not saying some of the things that IBM claims it does, cannot be currently done, but I no doubt at all the IBM is not doing it, and Watson is most certainly behind closed doors a complete joke.
- MattRix 8y ago
  I didn't even mention Watson, since I know nothing about it. Even if Watson is a complete sham, it doesn't mean ALL AI projects are shams! For example, you can't say that DeepMind is vaporware. AlphaGo is real, and it works. Self-driving cars are real, and they work, etc.