This is a variant of survivership bias and says effectively nothing. Just because things have gotten more complicated and people have used them doesn't mean th

This is a variant of survivership bias and says effectively nothing. Just because things have gotten more complicated and people have used them doesn't mean that people will start to use any complicated thing. For example: Google+ / Google Wave isn't an alternative to email if my grandma can't use it. GPG isn't an alternative to talking in-person communication if my grandma can't use it. ... etc Yes, you have valid examples where things that are relatively complex did become popular, but there are many many more examples of things that were more complicated and failed. Just because scuttlebutt is complicated is not a reason it will succeed, but is indeed a valid reason it might fail.