You’re giving the range for a 50% to 100% chance of non-transmission. But in the spirit of the original question, I’d suppose we want to find n such that the p

You’re giving the range for a 50% to 100% chance of non-transmission. But in the spirit of the original question, I’d suppose we want to find n such that the probability of non-transmission is 2^-n, and the expected number of such transmissions is 1? Is that number similarly close?