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Part of the mistake here is in interpreting the p value as being a measure of anything really meaningful. P<0.05 doesn't mean 1 in 20 are wrong. It does mean
by hpcjoe 9y ago
Part of the mistake here is in interpreting the p value as being a measure of anything really meaningful. P<0.05 doesn't mean 1 in 20 are wrong. It does mean that in the narrow confines of the definition of the statistical model used, it is possible that 1 in 20 would be explainable by the null hypothesis.
It is not, in any way a measure of reality. It is a guess at how accurately you've modeled the system, how accurate your priors are, and so forth.
- lisper 9y ago> P<0.05 doesn't mean 1 in 20 are wrong > It does mean that ... 1 in 20 would be explainable by the null hypothesis. That seems like splitting a pretty fine hair to me, particularly since I haven't actually committed to any of the many possible interpretations of the word "wrong".