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Author here. Maybe Java fans, or Sun/Oracle employees and fanboys said that. That doesn't really mean much. I did predict years ago that open web technologies

by judah 9y ago

Author here. Maybe Java fans, or Sun/Oracle employees and fanboys said that. That doesn't really mean much. I did predict years ago that open web technologies will destroy native (desktop) apps, Flash, and Silverlight. In hindsight, I was correct. I am predicting the same thing with regards to native mobile apps: they will largely disappear, and web apps will again win.

scarface74 9y ago
Well actually no. Mobile destroyed Flash and Silverlight and all of the complex apps that were moved to mobile went native - like Netflix.
- judah 9y ago
  You're right that mobile did help kill plugins. But that was the final blow; HTML5 had already disrupted native apps on desktop OS for a few years, and as browsers picked up HTML5 support, there was almost no need for plugins. (I say this with first-hand knowledge: several years ago when plugins were still common, I gave the final talk to a Silverlight user group in Minneapolis, in which I told the crowd there was simply no reason to continue using plugins. HTML5 won, and mobile only finalized its success.) Just as open web technologies ate Microsoft's lunch, undermining the domination of Windows, I predict the same will be true of the Apple (and Google) app ecoysystems. More and more, operating systems are simply environments in which to run web browser. I believe this trend will continue.
  - scarface74 9y ago
    The original iPhone cams out in 2007. Flash and Silverlight was still big. As late as 2010, Apple was still getting beat up about the iPad not supporting Flash. HTML 5 was not popular a "few years before 2007". Android users were still touting being able to (barely) use Flash as late as 2010. It also wasn't "open jtechnologies" that caused Windows to be less relevant. Windows still commands 85-90% plus of the desktop. Mobile caused the desktop to be less relevant.
HillaryBriss 9y ago
> I am predicting the same thing with regards to native mobile apps: they will largely disappear, and web apps will again win. But, how do you reconcile this belief with the ample evidence you offer that Apple/iOS are dragging their feet and are resistant (for whatever internal reasons) to letting PWAs offer a first class experience? In other words, what forces, in your view, will eventually bring Apple over to full support for PWAs?

by judah 9y ago

scarface74 9y ago

Well actually no. Mobile destroyed Flash and Silverlight and all of the complex apps that were moved to mobile went native - like Netflix.

judah 9y ago
You're right that mobile did help kill plugins. But that was the final blow; HTML5 had already disrupted native apps on desktop OS for a few years, and as browsers picked up HTML5 support, there was almost no need for plugins. (I say this with first-hand knowledge: several years ago when plugins were still common, I gave the final talk to a Silverlight user group in Minneapolis, in which I told the crowd there was simply no reason to continue using plugins. HTML5 won, and mobile only finalized its success.) Just as open web technologies ate Microsoft's lunch, undermining the domination of Windows, I predict the same will be true of the Apple (and Google) app ecoysystems. More and more, operating systems are simply environments in which to run web browser. I believe this trend will continue.
- scarface74 9y ago
  The original iPhone cams out in 2007. Flash and Silverlight was still big. As late as 2010, Apple was still getting beat up about the iPad not supporting Flash. HTML 5 was not popular a "few years before 2007". Android users were still touting being able to (barely) use Flash as late as 2010. It also wasn't "open jtechnologies" that caused Windows to be less relevant. Windows still commands 85-90% plus of the desktop. Mobile caused the desktop to be less relevant.

HillaryBriss 9y ago

> I am predicting the same thing with regards to native mobile apps: they will largely disappear, and web apps will again win. But, how do you reconcile this belief with the ample evidence you offer that Apple/iOS are dragging their feet and are resistant (for whatever internal reasons) to letting PWAs offer a first class experience? In other words, what forces, in your view, will eventually bring Apple over to full support for PWAs?