3 ms·
An actual hot war is just the extreme case of conflict. Things need not rise to that level for these concerns to matter. And yes, these concerns are not new bu
by marcoperaza 9y ago
An actual hot war is just the extreme case of conflict. Things need not rise to that level for these concerns to matter.
And yes, these concerns are not new but they are becoming more salient.
As for the effect of this particular action, it is not so simple. You are assuming that the US’s only interest is having chips to hang over China’s head in a moment of crisis.[1]
But we also have more strategic interests, like undermining the global market for potentially backdoored phones ultimately controlled by China’s security apparatus.
A full analysis would have to answer questions such as: What are ZTE’s prospects for finding equivalent components from other sources? Will they need to redesign their devices? How will that affect ZTE’s prices? And how will this all translate to changes in marketshare in various countries? In one year? Two? Ten?
[1] And this isn’t even a great chip to use in such a crisis. Damage to China’s interests here will be gradual and over a longer period. In real crises, more immediate interests would overwhelm this kind of thing.
- jacquesm 9y ago> But we also have an interest in undermining the global market for potentially backdoored phones ultimately controlled by China’s security apparatus. And again: this will achieve the exact opposite. Without US chips at the heart of those phones the chances of backdoored phones increase tremendously.