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There's a much simpler solution to the overbooking problem: eliminate the fraud exemption that airlines currently enjoy, allowing them to sell the same seat twi

There's a much simpler solution to the overbooking problem: eliminate the fraud exemption that airlines currently enjoy, allowing them to sell the same seat twice. The downside is that, if airlines are unable to resell unused seats, more flights will fly partially empty, reducing overall efficiency of the industry. But if they offer standby "tickets" at steep discounts (instead of making every ticket a probabilistic standby seat), that problem would solve itself.

cybrjoe 9y ago
Don't all airlines already sell standby tickets? I'm guessing the demand on the average flight isn't enough to cover the chance someone won't show.
- vannevar 9y ago
  If demand were too low for standby tickets, the flight wouldn't be in danger of overbooking in the first place.
- mseebach 9y ago
  I've never seen standby tickets on sale in a first order way. Usually, it's when you're on a rebooked or connecting flight, they'll offer you standby on a better (but sold out) option.
intopieces 9y ago
Your solution means higher ticket prices overall, which consumers have repeatedly indicated they do not want. Most people don’t get bumped from flights. Most people don’t want to pay x% more to see their family once a year.
- vannevar 9y ago
  The percentage increase in price shouldn't be any greater than the percentage probability of getting bumped from a flight, which as you point out, is relatively low. If every hundredth seat is overbooked on average, then you've got 101 passengers for 100 seats. If they all paid $100, then you could offset the lost revenue from the 101st passenger by charging the remaining passengers $101 each. Not exactly a game changing cost increase.
  - mseebach 9y ago
    Overbooking != Bumped passengers Most of the time, by a large margin, all of the passengers who show up for a flight get on it. That's the premise for overbooking, for any given flight, some number of passengers don't show up (including for reasons like missed connections, which the airline still have to fix). Sometimes, though rarely in the grand scheme of things, too many passengers do show up, and bumping is necessary. In the vast majority of those cases, someone volunteers for compensation. It's also important to keep in mind that the Dr Dao incident wasn't caused by overbooking, at least not as commonly understood. The airline urgently needed to reposition a crew to allow another flight to operate, and decided that this need trumped the passengers.
    - vannevar 9y ago
      Indeed. See my reply to @tetrazine below: it appears that 90% of bumps are voluntary. But per my original comment, the rate of overbooking is quite low, and legally eliminating it should not have a big impact on fares.
  - tetrazine 9y ago
    This is absolutely wrong, as many passengers do not make it to a flight, without being bumped. This rate is very high and makes overbooking valuable. The difference in cost includes both the relatively low bumping rate and the relatively high missed/cancelled flight rate. Many routes make very little revenue per flight (not per passenger) after overhead - at times in the hundreds of dollars, if I recall correctly - and would be completely unviable without overbooking.
    - vannevar 9y ago
      This is absolutely wrong, as many passengers do not make it to a flight, without being bumped. Based on personal experience, I doubt this is true. Ask yourself how many times have you done this? I've flown hundreds of times, but have only missed a handful of flights. So the collision rate should be very close to the actual overbooking rate. I haven't been able to find any figures on the actual rate of overbooking. But I did see a statement that 11% of bumps are involuntary. And the overall rate for involuntary denial is 0.09% according to this article, for instance: https://www.ft.com/content/e4cb5744-1e9d-11e7-a454-ab04428977f9 https://www.ft.com/content/e4cb5744-1e9d-11e7-a454-ab0442897.... That suggests that the overall rate of overbooking collisions is around 0.9%, which is close to my overbooking estimate of 1%. Even if I'm off by an order of magnitude, the impact on fares would be no more than 10%.
bogomipz 9y ago
>"The downside is that, if airlines are unable to resell unused seats, more flights will fly partially empty, reducing overall efficiency of the industry" You are talking about load factor and its not so much an issue any more. See: http://atwonline.com/airline-traffic/top-30-airlines-passenger-load-factor-year-date-july-2017 http://atwonline.com/airline-traffic/top-30-airlines-passeng...
- URSpider94 9y ago
  Part of the reason those load factors are so high is that airlines are allowed to oversell capacity, to help ensure that as many seats as possible are occupied.
  - bogomipz 9y ago
    Interesting my understanding was that they were influencing load factor simply by scaling back the number of flights per day on a certain routes. Might you have any links? I imagine as someone else also pointed out that this venture being discussed here will ultimately used to oversell even more.
alkonaut 9y ago
They could just ask every passenger how much they would want to potentially take the next plane. Then just bump those that ask the least. If I’m choosing between the 1pm and 3pm place and decide on 1pm I’m obviously not that opposed to changing to the 3pm, so I’d enter a low sum. But if I’m going to an important event or connecting to another flight then my cost of switching might be huge. But I doubt any of this will change, anyone who buys a cheap ticket isn’t buying a “seat” they are buying a chance at a seat. The alternative as you say is lower efficiency and higher prices for everyone. The incident where a passenger was dragged off shouldn’t be possible regardless of system since the bounced passenger should never be boarded.

cybrjoe 9y ago

Don't all airlines already sell standby tickets? I'm guessing the demand on the average flight isn't enough to cover the chance someone won't show.

vannevar 9y ago
If demand were too low for standby tickets, the flight wouldn't be in danger of overbooking in the first place.
mseebach 9y ago
I've never seen standby tickets on sale in a first order way. Usually, it's when you're on a rebooked or connecting flight, they'll offer you standby on a better (but sold out) option.

intopieces 9y ago

Your solution means higher ticket prices overall, which consumers have repeatedly indicated they do not want. Most people don’t get bumped from flights. Most people don’t want to pay x% more to see their family once a year.

vannevar 9y ago
The percentage increase in price shouldn't be any greater than the percentage probability of getting bumped from a flight, which as you point out, is relatively low. If every hundredth seat is overbooked on average, then you've got 101 passengers for 100 seats. If they all paid $100, then you could offset the lost revenue from the 101st passenger by charging the remaining passengers $101 each. Not exactly a game changing cost increase.
- mseebach 9y ago
  Overbooking != Bumped passengers Most of the time, by a large margin, all of the passengers who show up for a flight get on it. That's the premise for overbooking, for any given flight, some number of passengers don't show up (including for reasons like missed connections, which the airline still have to fix). Sometimes, though rarely in the grand scheme of things, too many passengers do show up, and bumping is necessary. In the vast majority of those cases, someone volunteers for compensation. It's also important to keep in mind that the Dr Dao incident wasn't caused by overbooking, at least not as commonly understood. The airline urgently needed to reposition a crew to allow another flight to operate, and decided that this need trumped the passengers.
  - vannevar 9y ago
    Indeed. See my reply to @tetrazine below: it appears that 90% of bumps are voluntary. But per my original comment, the rate of overbooking is quite low, and legally eliminating it should not have a big impact on fares.
- tetrazine 9y ago
  This is absolutely wrong, as many passengers do not make it to a flight, without being bumped. This rate is very high and makes overbooking valuable. The difference in cost includes both the relatively low bumping rate and the relatively high missed/cancelled flight rate. Many routes make very little revenue per flight (not per passenger) after overhead - at times in the hundreds of dollars, if I recall correctly - and would be completely unviable without overbooking.
  - vannevar 9y ago
    This is absolutely wrong, as many passengers do not make it to a flight, without being bumped. Based on personal experience, I doubt this is true. Ask yourself how many times have you done this? I've flown hundreds of times, but have only missed a handful of flights. So the collision rate should be very close to the actual overbooking rate. I haven't been able to find any figures on the actual rate of overbooking. But I did see a statement that 11% of bumps are involuntary. And the overall rate for involuntary denial is 0.09% according to this article, for instance: https://www.ft.com/content/e4cb5744-1e9d-11e7-a454-ab04428977f9 https://www.ft.com/content/e4cb5744-1e9d-11e7-a454-ab0442897.... That suggests that the overall rate of overbooking collisions is around 0.9%, which is close to my overbooking estimate of 1%. Even if I'm off by an order of magnitude, the impact on fares would be no more than 10%.

bogomipz 9y ago

>"The downside is that, if airlines are unable to resell unused seats, more flights will fly partially empty, reducing overall efficiency of the industry" You are talking about load factor and its not so much an issue any more. See: http://atwonline.com/airline-traffic/top-30-airlines-passenger-load-factor-year-date-july-2017 http://atwonline.com/airline-traffic/top-30-airlines-passeng...

URSpider94 9y ago
Part of the reason those load factors are so high is that airlines are allowed to oversell capacity, to help ensure that as many seats as possible are occupied.
- bogomipz 9y ago
  Interesting my understanding was that they were influencing load factor simply by scaling back the number of flights per day on a certain routes. Might you have any links? I imagine as someone else also pointed out that this venture being discussed here will ultimately used to oversell even more.

alkonaut 9y ago

They could just ask every passenger how much they would want to potentially take the next plane. Then just bump those that ask the least. If I’m choosing between the 1pm and 3pm place and decide on 1pm I’m obviously not that opposed to changing to the 3pm, so I’d enter a low sum. But if I’m going to an important event or connecting to another flight then my cost of switching might be huge. But I doubt any of this will change, anyone who buys a cheap ticket isn’t buying a “seat” they are buying a chance at a seat. The alternative as you say is lower efficiency and higher prices for everyone. The incident where a passenger was dragged off shouldn’t be possible regardless of system since the bounced passenger should never be boarded.