4 ms·

If Kryder's Law holds, then by 2030 local hard drives will store petabytes (4x library of congress or 500 mp4 years). 32 terabyte thumb drives will cost $10. Ro

by th-ai 8y ago

If Kryder's Law holds, then by 2030 local hard drives will store petabytes (4x library of congress or 500 mp4 years). 32 terabyte thumb drives will cost $10. Routes around ISP's will be plentiful. How can copyright survive?

dbasedweeb 8y ago
Because it’s a huge “if” and assumes that by 2030 the A/V standard won’t grow as well? I hope you’re right, but past performed is not a guarantee of future gains.
- xoa 8y ago
  >but past performed is not a guarantee of future gains Yes, but to your question regarding A/V standards, that works both ways. While past performance often isn't a great predictor, human biological specs are a decent predictor for the near future. If we take 8k as the current bleeding edge (given actual beyond-the-lab 8k screens exist, albeit at horrendous bleeding edge pricing), we're somewhere around one more doubling (quadrupling of pixels) away from the point where the number of image elements will literally exceed the number of retina in a human eye. Now yeah, the human eye jitters around a fair amount, and maybe there'd be some value in peripheral vision coverage too in theory, but even taking all of that into consideration to be very conservative we're still rapidly approaching the point where our display tech can exceed the limits of human visual acuity, at which point it's reasonable to predict that we will in fact be "done" when it comes to A/V standards (post-human seems farther away then 2030). And even that is getting into heavily diminishing returns territory. It really does make for something interesting to think about, similar to that of audio where we've already been "done" for a long time now. We've lived in an era where a significant amount of innovation and money flowing around and such came out of a lot of work to ever more closely match our synthetic light outputs to the input capabilities of our vision systems. But that's not a forever thing, our vision system is such a powerful part of our senses that it's been a very hard target, but there is in fact a hard physical limit there. When it's reached, and there will be no more video format changes ever again, and no more screen changes ever again, no more chances to sell "remastered" and "updated" versions of older visual products, etc., it may make for some real changes in the industry. And to GP's point, the theoretical limits of information storage in matter do seem to be a lot farther beyond the theoretical end of information requirements necessary to match a human's AV. Optimistically for all parties though, the music scene seems to have done alright through that transition so far, on both the production/industry and consumer side (where we enjoy near universal DRM free high quality competition). Granted, that was after a lot of very ugly thrashing...
  - dbasedweeb 8y ago
    You’re thinking in terms of one big screen, but by 2030 maybe it’s VR that rules the day? What does 16K per eyeball look like? How about a movie with a dozen perspectives in the file? There are loads of foreseeable ways to blow up file sizes in a dozen years.
    - incompatible 8y ago
      360 degree video already exists: I believe it works by transmitting the entire output from 2 or more wide angle lenses and letting the viewer select an angle to display. Search for 360 video on youtube for examples.
    - nielsole 8y ago
      Or movies with high resolution LIDAR and tiles of all surfaces allowing free roaming in movies
onion2k 8y ago
Storage costs aren't really stopping people gathering and sharing content right now. A 4 terabyte drive is about $100. Few people have them though, and fewer still have them set up to share content openly. Why would bigger disks or cheaper thumbdrives change that?

by th-ai 8y ago

dbasedweeb 8y ago

Because it’s a huge “if” and assumes that by 2030 the A/V standard won’t grow as well? I hope you’re right, but past performed is not a guarantee of future gains.

xoa 8y ago
>but past performed is not a guarantee of future gains Yes, but to your question regarding A/V standards, that works both ways. While past performance often isn't a great predictor, human biological specs are a decent predictor for the near future. If we take 8k as the current bleeding edge (given actual beyond-the-lab 8k screens exist, albeit at horrendous bleeding edge pricing), we're somewhere around one more doubling (quadrupling of pixels) away from the point where the number of image elements will literally exceed the number of retina in a human eye. Now yeah, the human eye jitters around a fair amount, and maybe there'd be some value in peripheral vision coverage too in theory, but even taking all of that into consideration to be very conservative we're still rapidly approaching the point where our display tech can exceed the limits of human visual acuity, at which point it's reasonable to predict that we will in fact be "done" when it comes to A/V standards (post-human seems farther away then 2030). And even that is getting into heavily diminishing returns territory. It really does make for something interesting to think about, similar to that of audio where we've already been "done" for a long time now. We've lived in an era where a significant amount of innovation and money flowing around and such came out of a lot of work to ever more closely match our synthetic light outputs to the input capabilities of our vision systems. But that's not a forever thing, our vision system is such a powerful part of our senses that it's been a very hard target, but there is in fact a hard physical limit there. When it's reached, and there will be no more video format changes ever again, and no more screen changes ever again, no more chances to sell "remastered" and "updated" versions of older visual products, etc., it may make for some real changes in the industry. And to GP's point, the theoretical limits of information storage in matter do seem to be a lot farther beyond the theoretical end of information requirements necessary to match a human's AV. Optimistically for all parties though, the music scene seems to have done alright through that transition so far, on both the production/industry and consumer side (where we enjoy near universal DRM free high quality competition). Granted, that was after a lot of very ugly thrashing...
- dbasedweeb 8y ago
  You’re thinking in terms of one big screen, but by 2030 maybe it’s VR that rules the day? What does 16K per eyeball look like? How about a movie with a dozen perspectives in the file? There are loads of foreseeable ways to blow up file sizes in a dozen years.
  - incompatible 8y ago
    360 degree video already exists: I believe it works by transmitting the entire output from 2 or more wide angle lenses and letting the viewer select an angle to display. Search for 360 video on youtube for examples.
  - nielsole 8y ago
    Or movies with high resolution LIDAR and tiles of all surfaces allowing free roaming in movies

onion2k 8y ago

Storage costs aren't really stopping people gathering and sharing content right now. A 4 terabyte drive is about $100. Few people have them though, and fewer still have them set up to share content openly. Why would bigger disks or cheaper thumbdrives change that?