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3. nope, don't buy it. the real frontier is intellectual in nature not physical. 2. If there is non trivial amounts of manufacturing done in space, it will not

3. nope, don't buy it. the real frontier is intellectual in nature not physical. 2. If there is non trivial amounts of manufacturing done in space, it will not be done by humans. 1. modern human civilization is incapable of the feat you're talking about and even if it could muster the will it would be the greatest misallocation of resources of all time simply due to the scale of it - worse than any communist 5 year plan. Terraforming happens on a similar time scale to the birth and death of human societies. I don't see a future where humans as we know them today are on mars as anything more than a gimmick - and that's even on timescales which are outside the bounds of our lifetimes. 4. this last point is the exact type of vision I'm so cynical about. Basically pure fantasy. Even if it could be done, it wouldn't be what you imagine it to be. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rswYl7RLRNE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rswYl7RLRNE "This scene is Tarkovsky's response to the wormhole sequence in "2001". You get the shapes and the lights flying towards you but all of the artificial color has been taken out. By showing driving as this abstract sequence of lights and tunnels, we're reminded how a mundane thing like driving really involves a huge amount of technology and engineering, and that maybe this advanced technology this isn't liberating and exciting, but alienating and oppressive. " optimism and cynicism have to be balanced against each other and your vision is sorely missing one of them.

nickparker 9y ago
1. I didn't write a word about terraforming. There are a thousand options for sealed habitats on Mars. Sad little caves at first, enormous indoor cities later. Once the economic incentives line up it'll happen. 2. Of course it'll be highly automated, my company's building automated manufacturing with this in mind. We haven't got robots as flexible and capable as humans yet though, and I'm skeptical that we'll get them before giant economic opportunities appear in space. I think there'll be humans up there to tend the machines, or at least teleoperate them with acceptable latency for everything beyond Earth orbit. 3. Fair difference of opinion. 4. Orbit is ~400 km and ~8,000 km/h away. It's fairly likely at this point that reusable ultra-heavy lift vehicles are going to be reality. Think about what comes 2 generations after BFR/New Glenn, and the idea of putting grandma in orbit shouldn't seem so far fetched.

nickparker 9y ago

1. I didn't write a word about terraforming. There are a thousand options for sealed habitats on Mars. Sad little caves at first, enormous indoor cities later. Once the economic incentives line up it'll happen. 2. Of course it'll be highly automated, my company's building automated manufacturing with this in mind. We haven't got robots as flexible and capable as humans yet though, and I'm skeptical that we'll get them before giant economic opportunities appear in space. I think there'll be humans up there to tend the machines, or at least teleoperate them with acceptable latency for everything beyond Earth orbit. 3. Fair difference of opinion. 4. Orbit is ~400 km and ~8,000 km/h away. It's fairly likely at this point that reusable ultra-heavy lift vehicles are going to be reality. Think about what comes 2 generations after BFR/New Glenn, and the idea of putting grandma in orbit shouldn't seem so far fetched.