It sounds like they pulled the plug after as little as 2-3 months of supposed ~50% monthly increases. So the chance that the real money stolen is somewhere in t

It sounds like they pulled the plug after as little as 2-3 months of supposed ~50% monthly increases. So the chance that the real money stolen is somewhere in the vicinity of 1/4 the apparent loss seems high. Your figure of 1/10 to be conservative sounds sadly sensible.