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Three main points here: 1. Building a second society on Mars isn't meant to preserve the human species, it's meant to preserve modern human civilization. That'

Three main points here: 1. Building a second society on Mars isn't meant to preserve the human species, it's meant to preserve modern human civilization. That's a higher order thing which is much more vulnerable to the climate catastrophe and other threats. 2. Industry in space and on Mars is going to be ludicrously profitable. Made in Space is manufacturing best-in-class optical fibers in orbit because gravity introduces crystalline defects [0]. As launch costs decrease we're going to find there are enormous numbers of low mass high value goods which can be improved by manufacturing in an ambient acceleration less than 1g. Mars will be profitable because its gravity well is tiny compared to Earth's - if you want 2 kt of steel in high Earth orbit for your new habitat, launching it from Mars and flying it over will be cheaper than lifting it from Earth. 3. If you buy into Hirschman's ideas of Voice and Exit, a frontier is arguably a necessary component of a healthy civilization. A new world for the misfits and revolutionaries to test their ideas on stabilizes the old world, and the ideas that turn out to be good feed back into the old world improving life for everyone. Lastly, if humans fare well in lower gravity, I think we'll see tons of people choosing to live in orbit. The radiation problem is really a mass budget problem, it goes away on larger habitats. Consider the ultra-rich first, who could build perfectly climate controlled terrariums with a billion dollar view of Earth, where their very bones feel lighter, they can jump 10 feet, and breach out of their swimming pool like a shark. The leisure class could happily live up there full time, and even those with work down below could vacation for a couple months a year. Later on, I think retirement homes on orbit will be the default. It's much harder to break a hip when you only weigh 20 lbs, and retirees tend to move to a facility and then stay there so the commute to the surface is less of an issue. [0]: http://madeinspace.us/mis-fiber/ http://madeinspace.us/mis-fiber/

zzzzzzzza 9y ago
3. nope, don't buy it. the real frontier is intellectual in nature not physical. 2. If there is non trivial amounts of manufacturing done in space, it will not be done by humans. 1. modern human civilization is incapable of the feat you're talking about and even if it could muster the will it would be the greatest misallocation of resources of all time simply due to the scale of it - worse than any communist 5 year plan. Terraforming happens on a similar time scale to the birth and death of human societies. I don't see a future where humans as we know them today are on mars as anything more than a gimmick - and that's even on timescales which are outside the bounds of our lifetimes. 4. this last point is the exact type of vision I'm so cynical about. Basically pure fantasy. Even if it could be done, it wouldn't be what you imagine it to be. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rswYl7RLRNE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rswYl7RLRNE "This scene is Tarkovsky's response to the wormhole sequence in "2001". You get the shapes and the lights flying towards you but all of the artificial color has been taken out. By showing driving as this abstract sequence of lights and tunnels, we're reminded how a mundane thing like driving really involves a huge amount of technology and engineering, and that maybe this advanced technology this isn't liberating and exciting, but alienating and oppressive. " optimism and cynicism have to be balanced against each other and your vision is sorely missing one of them.
- nickparker 9y ago
  1. I didn't write a word about terraforming. There are a thousand options for sealed habitats on Mars. Sad little caves at first, enormous indoor cities later. Once the economic incentives line up it'll happen. 2. Of course it'll be highly automated, my company's building automated manufacturing with this in mind. We haven't got robots as flexible and capable as humans yet though, and I'm skeptical that we'll get them before giant economic opportunities appear in space. I think there'll be humans up there to tend the machines, or at least teleoperate them with acceptable latency for everything beyond Earth orbit. 3. Fair difference of opinion. 4. Orbit is ~400 km and ~8,000 km/h away. It's fairly likely at this point that reusable ultra-heavy lift vehicles are going to be reality. Think about what comes 2 generations after BFR/New Glenn, and the idea of putting grandma in orbit shouldn't seem so far fetched.

zzzzzzzza 9y ago

3. nope, don't buy it. the real frontier is intellectual in nature not physical. 2. If there is non trivial amounts of manufacturing done in space, it will not be done by humans. 1. modern human civilization is incapable of the feat you're talking about and even if it could muster the will it would be the greatest misallocation of resources of all time simply due to the scale of it - worse than any communist 5 year plan. Terraforming happens on a similar time scale to the birth and death of human societies. I don't see a future where humans as we know them today are on mars as anything more than a gimmick - and that's even on timescales which are outside the bounds of our lifetimes. 4. this last point is the exact type of vision I'm so cynical about. Basically pure fantasy. Even if it could be done, it wouldn't be what you imagine it to be. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rswYl7RLRNE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rswYl7RLRNE "This scene is Tarkovsky's response to the wormhole sequence in "2001". You get the shapes and the lights flying towards you but all of the artificial color has been taken out. By showing driving as this abstract sequence of lights and tunnels, we're reminded how a mundane thing like driving really involves a huge amount of technology and engineering, and that maybe this advanced technology this isn't liberating and exciting, but alienating and oppressive. " optimism and cynicism have to be balanced against each other and your vision is sorely missing one of them.

nickparker 9y ago
1. I didn't write a word about terraforming. There are a thousand options for sealed habitats on Mars. Sad little caves at first, enormous indoor cities later. Once the economic incentives line up it'll happen. 2. Of course it'll be highly automated, my company's building automated manufacturing with this in mind. We haven't got robots as flexible and capable as humans yet though, and I'm skeptical that we'll get them before giant economic opportunities appear in space. I think there'll be humans up there to tend the machines, or at least teleoperate them with acceptable latency for everything beyond Earth orbit. 3. Fair difference of opinion. 4. Orbit is ~400 km and ~8,000 km/h away. It's fairly likely at this point that reusable ultra-heavy lift vehicles are going to be reality. Think about what comes 2 generations after BFR/New Glenn, and the idea of putting grandma in orbit shouldn't seem so far fetched.