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> Let's be real I think what you mean is "let's speculate on what's going to happen over the next 100 years" From Musk's various interviews it's a race betwee
by icc97 9y ago
> Let's be real
I think what you mean is "let's speculate on what's going to happen over the next 100 years"
From Musk's various interviews it's a race between getting ~1M people living on Mars vs WWIII
There is the common knowledge amongst major powers that the next World War will probably be an extinction level event, so where as it's probably inevitable there's a reasonable chance that it won't happen for 100 years.
Musk estimates that it would take ~50 years (2070) to get a self-sustaining Mars base. Where as lots of his Tesla predictions have been off, his Space X predictions have been pretty good (e.g. re-usable rockets, expected launches per year).
- ben_w 9y agoI don’t trust to common knowledge. Consider how many people thought “nobody could possibly vote for Trump”? Or pretty much any opinion on Brexit, for or against. Then there’s the question of dead man switches starting, instead of responding to, a nuclear war. Only the people in charge of them even know for sure they exist, so how can we even estimate the chances they’ll be triggered by something short of an attack on their host nations?
- icc97 9y agoFair enough. The world has managed to not blow itself up for 60 years, we can speculate on whether that will hold long enough to build a self-sustaining base on Mars.