5 ms·

Why are they assuming that the census data is accurate? I don't see how it would be any harder to falsify. It's relatively easy to check for individuals who don

by natrius 16y ago

Why are they assuming that the census data is accurate? I don't see how it would be any harder to falsify. It's relatively easy to check for individuals who don't show up in any other government data or are known to be dead, but if the government thinks they're alive, why would a household not include the dead person? Then again, I don't know how Japan's census actually works.

patio11 16y ago
A census official comes to your house, gives you a piece of paper to fill out about your household, asks you a few questions, and then departs. Here's the miscalculation: pension benefits are administered by the pension office of the city you live in. Unlike America, everyone is registered at the local town office. When you move between towns, you're supposed to a notification with the old town and the new town. They don't synch their records, which are still kept mostly on paper. Thus, if I were hypothetically an old man who lived with my family in Nagoya, then moved to an old folk's home in Ogaki (establishing a new household there), the pension system would not necessarily catch me drawing pensions in two places. If I subsequently expire in Ogaki, notification of my death will update Ogaki's records, but nobody will call Nagoya to tell them "Hey, this guy who shouldn't be on your books anymore is dead now." If this strikes you as a mindbogglingly inefficient way to run a national pension system worth trillions, wait until I tell you about the time where they discovered they had just totally lost the records of the existence of several million people.
- natrius 16y ago
  So you're saying the hidden or unnoticed dead person isn't the cause of most of these, it's just that incorrect double pensions turn into incorrect single pensions? Hm... it still seems like the census data could be incorrect. All those people who are receiving pensions for dead people have a pretty big incentive to make it look like that person is still alive, so I don't see why they'd fill out the census form without counting the dead person.
  - patio11 16y ago
    For these and other reasons, the Census makes it quite clear that they treat all information as confidential and do not report it to any government agency. There were ads explaining that for literally months prior to the last census. The census taker who stopped by to speak with me helpfully noted that Japan would be quite grateful if, for statistical purposes, I would mention all of my illegal relatives, too, and that he would absolutely not speak to Immigration about them.
    - yummyfajitas 16y ago
      The census may claim to treat information collected as confidential. But why would people believe them? The US government also claims census data is confidential, but that claim has been proven to be a lie. http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-03-30-census-role_N.htm http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-03-30-census-role_N...
      - martey 16y ago
        I am not sure how a disclosure of information during World War II that was legal under the laws of the time has any relevance on how information is treated now. See http://www.census.gov/privacy/data_protection/title_13_-_protection_of_confidential_information.html http://www.census.gov/privacy/data_protection/title_13_-_pro...
        deleted 16y ago
        [deleted]
        stretchwithme 16y ago
        Was it legal to round people up like that without even probable cause before the war? Current law can be changed and even constitutions ignored when it becomes convenient. Maybe those committing fraud believe that if they NEVER disclose something, its pretty much a sure thing that it can never be used against them.
- cdavid 16y ago
  For anyone living in Japan, the surprising thing is that it works at all. The possibilities for cheating are endless. It should be noted though that people in Japan do not move often. Actually, there are a lot of practices which make moving quite a bear (e.g. you have to pay up to 6 months of rent in advance for a new place, money which is often mostly lost, although the practice varies from area to area).

by natrius 16y ago

patio11 16y ago

A census official comes to your house, gives you a piece of paper to fill out about your household, asks you a few questions, and then departs. Here's the miscalculation: pension benefits are administered by the pension office of the city you live in. Unlike America, everyone is registered at the local town office. When you move between towns, you're supposed to a notification with the old town and the new town. They don't synch their records, which are still kept mostly on paper. Thus, if I were hypothetically an old man who lived with my family in Nagoya, then moved to an old folk's home in Ogaki (establishing a new household there), the pension system would not necessarily catch me drawing pensions in two places. If I subsequently expire in Ogaki, notification of my death will update Ogaki's records, but nobody will call Nagoya to tell them "Hey, this guy who shouldn't be on your books anymore is dead now." If this strikes you as a mindbogglingly inefficient way to run a national pension system worth trillions, wait until I tell you about the time where they discovered they had just totally lost the records of the existence of several million people.

natrius 16y ago
So you're saying the hidden or unnoticed dead person isn't the cause of most of these, it's just that incorrect double pensions turn into incorrect single pensions? Hm... it still seems like the census data could be incorrect. All those people who are receiving pensions for dead people have a pretty big incentive to make it look like that person is still alive, so I don't see why they'd fill out the census form without counting the dead person.
- patio11 16y ago
  For these and other reasons, the Census makes it quite clear that they treat all information as confidential and do not report it to any government agency. There were ads explaining that for literally months prior to the last census. The census taker who stopped by to speak with me helpfully noted that Japan would be quite grateful if, for statistical purposes, I would mention all of my illegal relatives, too, and that he would absolutely not speak to Immigration about them.
  - yummyfajitas 16y ago
    The census may claim to treat information collected as confidential. But why would people believe them? The US government also claims census data is confidential, but that claim has been proven to be a lie. http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-03-30-census-role_N.htm http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-03-30-census-role_N...
    - martey 16y ago
      I am not sure how a disclosure of information during World War II that was legal under the laws of the time has any relevance on how information is treated now. See http://www.census.gov/privacy/data_protection/title_13_-_protection_of_confidential_information.html http://www.census.gov/privacy/data_protection/title_13_-_pro...
      - deleted 16y ago
        [deleted]
      - stretchwithme 16y ago
        Was it legal to round people up like that without even probable cause before the war? Current law can be changed and even constitutions ignored when it becomes convenient. Maybe those committing fraud believe that if they NEVER disclose something, its pretty much a sure thing that it can never be used against them.
cdavid 16y ago
For anyone living in Japan, the surprising thing is that it works at all. The possibilities for cheating are endless. It should be noted though that people in Japan do not move often. Actually, there are a lot of practices which make moving quite a bear (e.g. you have to pay up to 6 months of rent in advance for a new place, money which is often mostly lost, although the practice varies from area to area).