5 ms·

60% is unrealistic. It's still very expensive to make anything as reliable as a human being if we're talking about anything other than pick-and-place (and that

60% is unrealistic. It's still very expensive to make anything as reliable as a human being if we're talking about anything other than pick-and-place (and that was really expensive the first time around). For a business to automate, it must invest substantial resources into the automation process and product. It must work in an industry where consistency is the most important quality customers are looking for. Automation already affected most of what it's going to do in manufacturing. Given the capital and talent being deployed, automated driving is on the way. Most other industries are not seeing similar talent and capital being invested into automation. Long-haul trucking is the industry I have the greatest concern for. Most of the others (e.g. short order cooks) will be fine for quite some time.

JoeAltmaier 9y ago
Tell that to the explosion of automation occurring right now. My local McD's just put in the touchscreen kiosk that'll ultimately replace the entire counter crew. The 'cooks' are already just a few folks running from machine to machine pressing buttons. That can also be entirely replaced (see other timely HN posting about MIT students' robo-cooker).
- bluedino 9y ago
  I find it odd that McD's went with something as archaic as self-ordering kiosks when you can just order from your phone. Those kiosks are very slow and a bit cumbersome to use, and they put them smack in the middle of the waiting area in the restaurant. Huge waste of space.
  - JoeAltmaier 9y ago
    Exactly my thought. Who doesn't have a phone? But wait - maybe there's a significant demographic there, after all its McD's.
    - crankylinuxuser 9y ago
      I also look at places like Chili's, Applebees, and the low-midgrade sit downs. Whenever you see a tablet on the table, that's their way of automating staff on various levels at a restaurant's level. They sell it as a way to play games tableside and to request server assistance... In reality, its so they can hire even less servers, have push-demand by customers when they wanted waited on, and sell more stuff quicker. It's also a way for management to ascertain actual engagement levels along with sales data. It's another case of short-sighted automation segmenting out under management in low end sit down restaurants. You certainly don't see high end restaurants engaging in these shenanigans... yet. Our (wife and I) decision is we place them face-down off the table. We prefer to engage with humans, not a idiot-box upper management dictates.
      - ghaff 9y ago
        >It's another case of short-sighted automation segmenting out under management in low end sit down restaurants. You certainly don't see high end restaurants engaging in these shenanigans... yet. It's already happening in some cases. A former colleague who is working in China (and I'm sure doesn't regularly eat at low-end restaurants) was telling me how in a lot of places you order from your table by scanning the QR code at your individual seat and pulling up the menu.
  - dx034 9y ago
    But otherwise you'd have to download the McDonalds app and store your details in there. With the kiosks, you don't have to leave your personal details and don't have to sign up before you first use it. I guess this makes a big difference. I prefer the kiosks over ordering at counter staff but probably wouldn't want yet another app on my phone (I'm only at McDonald's every other month or so).
    - bluedino 9y ago
      You can't just order as a guest like you can with the pizza chain apps?
      - dx034 9y ago
        I don't have any of those apps for the same reason (barely use them, don't want to have even more apps). But I guess you still need to scan your card? The kiosks have proper card terminals, they work faster than adding card details to an app (with the exception of Apple Pay).
jclardy 9y ago
But even driving is going to have a massive impact, beyond just trucking. That will be the first to get hit, but then you hit the taxi services. And then the big hit - the entire auto industry. How many people are going to decide they don't need to buy a new car, they can just sell their old one and have a fleet pick them up and drive them to work. Driving as a subscription. Then you lose car dealerships, and car manufacturing jobs, because we'll need fewer cars. Parking lots will become less necessary as the cars can just continuously drive around anticipating the next customer. Of course, that is all assuming full autonomy, which I think we are still pretty far away from.
- mxuribe 9y ago
  To add a small tangent to your comments... Car dealerships should have been disinter-mediated long ago. In my opinion, they add no value to the process of purchasing a car/truck; except for unnecessarily driving up the price. If i want expertise on which to buy, i wouldn't want the person whose incentive it is to get me into their most expensive car...i want advice from a neutral third-party who knows cars/trucks. I'm not an expert on capitalism, but it seems to me, that car dealerships - at least in this modern era - have been held up to exist in such an artificial way, which distorts pricing for me as a consumer. If car dealers failed to exist, yes, i would feel bad for the low-level car salespeople who now have to find another, different livelihood...but honestly, isn't this like trying to keep the jobs of the telegraph operators in our information age? Car dealerships should be left to go extinct.
  - ghaff 9y ago
    Tesla has showrooms. Tesla has service centers. They offer financing. I'm not a fan of car dealerships and spend as little time as possible in one when I buy a car. But there isn't a whole lot of evidence that if I started buying cars directly from the manufacturer, that car costs would be drastically reduced.
  - pc86 9y ago
    I used to agree with you but there are several points where you're flat-out wrong. > they add no value to the process of purchasing a car/truck Unless you get a new salesman they typically are experts on the cars themselves. Yes there are exceptions but especially if you're shopping at higher end dealerships (think Audi and higher, basically) they're going to know everything about the car and be able to tell you exactly what model fits your needs. > the person whose incentive it is to get me into their most expensive car Car salesmen are paid on gross, and the dealership's profit on a $120,000 7-series is not going to be twice the profit as a $60,000 M2. In fact, highest gross is on used vehicles, and those are the hardest to price shop since every one is different. > car dealerships have been held up to exist in such an artificial way That depends on your definition of artificial. Audi isn't allowed to sell me a new Q3, by law. If you change the law and get rid of dealerships, guess what happens? Audis are now available at MSRP only. No haggling, no getting a good deal because something's been on the lot and is a prior year model. The part you don't mention is the used car market. What happens to that when dealerships disappear? You can buy one from a private owner but then you get no warranty at all and you have to trust that they're not trying to screw you. I hesitate to draw a finance comparison, but don't dealerships offer some form of liquidity to the used car market? Audi corporate does not want to manage the trade in inventory. Won't the value of trade ins (and therefore used cars) drop like a rock at that point?
phil21 9y ago
I have to admit I disagree strongly. How could you have this opinion and be in the workforce over the past 20 years? Automation isn't one day a human-looking robot shows up and does 100% of your job better than you did it and now you're unemployed. Automation is we got a new machine in the shop that increased throughput, and we never replaced Betsy and George when they quit. It's getting that new cashier system that is idiot-proof and has pictures to tap of dollar bills vs. a keyboard or requiring any sort of math skills. It's redesigning the bathrooms to make cleaning take 30% of the previous time using basic automation and techniques. It's a long slow reduction and dumbing down of the workforce that won't happen overnight, but has already been happening and on an accelerating pace for 20-30 years or so now. Compare the skills needed to run a short-order cooking station 30 years ago to today - it's not even comparable. We would call such a position skilled or semi-skilled this day in age, as the average kid off the street couldn't be up and running in 6 hours of training. It would take months to replace that worker with someone in-kind, where now your labor pool for such jobs is basically "anyone who can show up on-time and sober" which of course pays considerably less. I see automation as the long slow destruction of semi-skilled labor. You either are effectively a cheap very flexible human robot, or you get paid well in a highly skilled position. The middle is being hallowed out rapidly.
- chrisweekly 9y ago
  hollowed (emptied) not hallowed (sacred)

JoeAltmaier 9y ago

Tell that to the explosion of automation occurring right now. My local McD's just put in the touchscreen kiosk that'll ultimately replace the entire counter crew. The 'cooks' are already just a few folks running from machine to machine pressing buttons. That can also be entirely replaced (see other timely HN posting about MIT students' robo-cooker).

bluedino 9y ago
I find it odd that McD's went with something as archaic as self-ordering kiosks when you can just order from your phone. Those kiosks are very slow and a bit cumbersome to use, and they put them smack in the middle of the waiting area in the restaurant. Huge waste of space.
- JoeAltmaier 9y ago
  Exactly my thought. Who doesn't have a phone? But wait - maybe there's a significant demographic there, after all its McD's.
  - crankylinuxuser 9y ago
    I also look at places like Chili's, Applebees, and the low-midgrade sit downs. Whenever you see a tablet on the table, that's their way of automating staff on various levels at a restaurant's level. They sell it as a way to play games tableside and to request server assistance... In reality, its so they can hire even less servers, have push-demand by customers when they wanted waited on, and sell more stuff quicker. It's also a way for management to ascertain actual engagement levels along with sales data. It's another case of short-sighted automation segmenting out under management in low end sit down restaurants. You certainly don't see high end restaurants engaging in these shenanigans... yet. Our (wife and I) decision is we place them face-down off the table. We prefer to engage with humans, not a idiot-box upper management dictates.
    - ghaff 9y ago
      >It's another case of short-sighted automation segmenting out under management in low end sit down restaurants. You certainly don't see high end restaurants engaging in these shenanigans... yet. It's already happening in some cases. A former colleague who is working in China (and I'm sure doesn't regularly eat at low-end restaurants) was telling me how in a lot of places you order from your table by scanning the QR code at your individual seat and pulling up the menu.
- dx034 9y ago
  But otherwise you'd have to download the McDonalds app and store your details in there. With the kiosks, you don't have to leave your personal details and don't have to sign up before you first use it. I guess this makes a big difference. I prefer the kiosks over ordering at counter staff but probably wouldn't want yet another app on my phone (I'm only at McDonald's every other month or so).
  - bluedino 9y ago
    You can't just order as a guest like you can with the pizza chain apps?
    - dx034 9y ago
      I don't have any of those apps for the same reason (barely use them, don't want to have even more apps). But I guess you still need to scan your card? The kiosks have proper card terminals, they work faster than adding card details to an app (with the exception of Apple Pay).

jclardy 9y ago

But even driving is going to have a massive impact, beyond just trucking. That will be the first to get hit, but then you hit the taxi services. And then the big hit - the entire auto industry. How many people are going to decide they don't need to buy a new car, they can just sell their old one and have a fleet pick them up and drive them to work. Driving as a subscription. Then you lose car dealerships, and car manufacturing jobs, because we'll need fewer cars. Parking lots will become less necessary as the cars can just continuously drive around anticipating the next customer. Of course, that is all assuming full autonomy, which I think we are still pretty far away from.

mxuribe 9y ago
To add a small tangent to your comments... Car dealerships should have been disinter-mediated long ago. In my opinion, they add no value to the process of purchasing a car/truck; except for unnecessarily driving up the price. If i want expertise on which to buy, i wouldn't want the person whose incentive it is to get me into their most expensive car...i want advice from a neutral third-party who knows cars/trucks. I'm not an expert on capitalism, but it seems to me, that car dealerships - at least in this modern era - have been held up to exist in such an artificial way, which distorts pricing for me as a consumer. If car dealers failed to exist, yes, i would feel bad for the low-level car salespeople who now have to find another, different livelihood...but honestly, isn't this like trying to keep the jobs of the telegraph operators in our information age? Car dealerships should be left to go extinct.
- ghaff 9y ago
  Tesla has showrooms. Tesla has service centers. They offer financing. I'm not a fan of car dealerships and spend as little time as possible in one when I buy a car. But there isn't a whole lot of evidence that if I started buying cars directly from the manufacturer, that car costs would be drastically reduced.
- pc86 9y ago
  I used to agree with you but there are several points where you're flat-out wrong. > they add no value to the process of purchasing a car/truck Unless you get a new salesman they typically are experts on the cars themselves. Yes there are exceptions but especially if you're shopping at higher end dealerships (think Audi and higher, basically) they're going to know everything about the car and be able to tell you exactly what model fits your needs. > the person whose incentive it is to get me into their most expensive car Car salesmen are paid on gross, and the dealership's profit on a $120,000 7-series is not going to be twice the profit as a $60,000 M2. In fact, highest gross is on used vehicles, and those are the hardest to price shop since every one is different. > car dealerships have been held up to exist in such an artificial way That depends on your definition of artificial. Audi isn't allowed to sell me a new Q3, by law. If you change the law and get rid of dealerships, guess what happens? Audis are now available at MSRP only. No haggling, no getting a good deal because something's been on the lot and is a prior year model. The part you don't mention is the used car market. What happens to that when dealerships disappear? You can buy one from a private owner but then you get no warranty at all and you have to trust that they're not trying to screw you. I hesitate to draw a finance comparison, but don't dealerships offer some form of liquidity to the used car market? Audi corporate does not want to manage the trade in inventory. Won't the value of trade ins (and therefore used cars) drop like a rock at that point?

phil21 9y ago

I have to admit I disagree strongly. How could you have this opinion and be in the workforce over the past 20 years? Automation isn't one day a human-looking robot shows up and does 100% of your job better than you did it and now you're unemployed. Automation is we got a new machine in the shop that increased throughput, and we never replaced Betsy and George when they quit. It's getting that new cashier system that is idiot-proof and has pictures to tap of dollar bills vs. a keyboard or requiring any sort of math skills. It's redesigning the bathrooms to make cleaning take 30% of the previous time using basic automation and techniques. It's a long slow reduction and dumbing down of the workforce that won't happen overnight, but has already been happening and on an accelerating pace for 20-30 years or so now. Compare the skills needed to run a short-order cooking station 30 years ago to today - it's not even comparable. We would call such a position skilled or semi-skilled this day in age, as the average kid off the street couldn't be up and running in 6 hours of training. It would take months to replace that worker with someone in-kind, where now your labor pool for such jobs is basically "anyone who can show up on-time and sober" which of course pays considerably less. I see automation as the long slow destruction of semi-skilled labor. You either are effectively a cheap very flexible human robot, or you get paid well in a highly skilled position. The middle is being hallowed out rapidly.

chrisweekly 9y ago
hollowed (emptied) not hallowed (sacred)