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I heard through a New York Times article that the data they use to calculate life expectancy is from the census (which is accurate), while the missing elderly a

I heard through a New York Times article that the data they use to calculate life expectancy is from the census (which is accurate), while the missing elderly are in other records. So it doesn't appear the life expectancy figure is in question. NYTimes: Japan’s Elderly Count Was Off by 234,000 http://nyti.ms/cim254 http://nyti.ms/cim254 I apologize for the shortened url, I'm on a mobile device.

natrius 16y ago
Why are they assuming that the census data is accurate? I don't see how it would be any harder to falsify. It's relatively easy to check for individuals who don't show up in any other government data or are known to be dead, but if the government thinks they're alive, why would a household not include the dead person? Then again, I don't know how Japan's census actually works.
- patio11 16y ago
  A census official comes to your house, gives you a piece of paper to fill out about your household, asks you a few questions, and then departs. Here's the miscalculation: pension benefits are administered by the pension office of the city you live in. Unlike America, everyone is registered at the local town office. When you move between towns, you're supposed to a notification with the old town and the new town. They don't synch their records, which are still kept mostly on paper. Thus, if I were hypothetically an old man who lived with my family in Nagoya, then moved to an old folk's home in Ogaki (establishing a new household there), the pension system would not necessarily catch me drawing pensions in two places. If I subsequently expire in Ogaki, notification of my death will update Ogaki's records, but nobody will call Nagoya to tell them "Hey, this guy who shouldn't be on your books anymore is dead now." If this strikes you as a mindbogglingly inefficient way to run a national pension system worth trillions, wait until I tell you about the time where they discovered they had just totally lost the records of the existence of several million people.
  - natrius 16y ago
    So you're saying the hidden or unnoticed dead person isn't the cause of most of these, it's just that incorrect double pensions turn into incorrect single pensions? Hm... it still seems like the census data could be incorrect. All those people who are receiving pensions for dead people have a pretty big incentive to make it look like that person is still alive, so I don't see why they'd fill out the census form without counting the dead person.
    - patio11 16y ago
      For these and other reasons, the Census makes it quite clear that they treat all information as confidential and do not report it to any government agency. There were ads explaining that for literally months prior to the last census. The census taker who stopped by to speak with me helpfully noted that Japan would be quite grateful if, for statistical purposes, I would mention all of my illegal relatives, too, and that he would absolutely not speak to Immigration about them.
      - yummyfajitas 16y ago
        The census may claim to treat information collected as confidential. But why would people believe them? The US government also claims census data is confidential, but that claim has been proven to be a lie. http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-03-30-census-role_N.htm http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-03-30-census-role_N...
        martey 16y ago
        I am not sure how a disclosure of information during World War II that was legal under the laws of the time has any relevance on how information is treated now. See http://www.census.gov/privacy/data_protection/title_13_-_protection_of_confidential_information.html http://www.census.gov/privacy/data_protection/title_13_-_pro...
        deleted 16y ago
        [deleted]

natrius 16y ago

Why are they assuming that the census data is accurate? I don't see how it would be any harder to falsify. It's relatively easy to check for individuals who don't show up in any other government data or are known to be dead, but if the government thinks they're alive, why would a household not include the dead person? Then again, I don't know how Japan's census actually works.

patio11 16y ago
A census official comes to your house, gives you a piece of paper to fill out about your household, asks you a few questions, and then departs. Here's the miscalculation: pension benefits are administered by the pension office of the city you live in. Unlike America, everyone is registered at the local town office. When you move between towns, you're supposed to a notification with the old town and the new town. They don't synch their records, which are still kept mostly on paper. Thus, if I were hypothetically an old man who lived with my family in Nagoya, then moved to an old folk's home in Ogaki (establishing a new household there), the pension system would not necessarily catch me drawing pensions in two places. If I subsequently expire in Ogaki, notification of my death will update Ogaki's records, but nobody will call Nagoya to tell them "Hey, this guy who shouldn't be on your books anymore is dead now." If this strikes you as a mindbogglingly inefficient way to run a national pension system worth trillions, wait until I tell you about the time where they discovered they had just totally lost the records of the existence of several million people.
- natrius 16y ago
  So you're saying the hidden or unnoticed dead person isn't the cause of most of these, it's just that incorrect double pensions turn into incorrect single pensions? Hm... it still seems like the census data could be incorrect. All those people who are receiving pensions for dead people have a pretty big incentive to make it look like that person is still alive, so I don't see why they'd fill out the census form without counting the dead person.
  - patio11 16y ago
    For these and other reasons, the Census makes it quite clear that they treat all information as confidential and do not report it to any government agency. There were ads explaining that for literally months prior to the last census. The census taker who stopped by to speak with me helpfully noted that Japan would be quite grateful if, for statistical purposes, I would mention all of my illegal relatives, too, and that he would absolutely not speak to Immigration about them.
    - yummyfajitas 16y ago
      The census may claim to treat information collected as confidential. But why would people believe them? The US government also claims census data is confidential, but that claim has been proven to be a lie. http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-03-30-census-role_N.htm http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-03-30-census-role_N...
      - martey 16y ago
        I am not sure how a disclosure of information during World War II that was legal under the laws of the time has any relevance on how information is treated now. See http://www.census.gov/privacy/data_protection/title_13_-_protection_of_confidential_information.html http://www.census.gov/privacy/data_protection/title_13_-_pro...
        deleted 16y ago
        [deleted]