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> Was this a coincidence? Maybe. Most likely. Here's Arthur Hayes, CEO of Bitmex, explaining it: > "The short pressure at its logical maximum emanating from t
by factsaresacred 9y ago
> Was this a coincidence? Maybe.
Most likely. Here's Arthur Hayes, CEO of Bitmex, explaining it:
> "The short pressure at its logical maximum emanating from the CME and CBOE contract holders is meaningless. Therefore, the effect on the broader market in actual flows is negligible. The contracts mainly bolster traders’ bullish sentiment....In terms of trading volume, BitMEX continues to blow both of these contracts out of the water. In the year to date, the BitMEX XBTUSD, XBTH18, and XBTM18 products traded a combined $53.14 billion versus CME and CBOE combined Bitcoin futures volume of $4.48 billion. BitMEX is 12x more liquid."
And:
> "The large financial institutions do not own Bitcoin in large quantities, if at all. They are hamstrung by KYC/AML concerns surrounding Bitcoin. That means that if they wanted to sell Bitcoin, they would need to borrow it from a credible counterparty. Hey, Cumberland Mining, can we borrow $100 million of Bitcoin?......Assuming banks borrowed Bitcoin with the intention of shorting it, they would need to sell it on an exchange. Given the skittishness that inhibits counterparties globally from placing large amounts of capital on an exchange, I highly doubt any compliance department at a bulge-bracket bank would approve opening an account.
> Let’s suspend reality and assume they allowed trading desks to open accounts on the largest Bitcoin spot exchanges. The maximum the desk could make is 100% if Bitcoin went to zero. But, if the market instead face-ripped them by 50% on a $100-million position, that loss would reach the global head of trading and of the investment bank.
> If you were the line executive that green-lit that trade, you would lose your job. You shorted Bitcoin, and lost a huge sum of money. That would make it into the financial press; you and your bank would be ridiculed."
- csomar 9y ago> The maximum the desk could make is 100% if Bitcoin went to zero. That's an interesting statement coming from someone whose exchange allows x100 leverage. You can make more than 100% of your initial investment if you leverage more.
- lifty 9y agoYou can do that fairly easy when you are trading on a 10k account. It is more difficult with a 100 million account when you are a bank.
- csomar 9y agoThe total open interest of Bitmex + okex is around $1bn of futures. That's $1bn of shorts open on bitcoin. Bitfinex has around half a billion of Bitcoins borrowed. I'm not saying $100m is easy, but it is definitively doable in todays crypto space.
- lowracle 9y agoHe is talking about short selling bitcoin, not selling swap contracts. You don't have to borrow bitcoin to sell swap contracts 100x leveraged. However, to short sell bitcoin 100x leveraged, you would need to borrow 100 times more bitcoins