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I'm just the messenger. Apparently there is some sort of criteria for what a "dense integrated circuit" is for the chart previously pasted, and apparently all o

I'm just the messenger. Apparently there is some sort of criteria for what a "dense integrated circuit" is for the chart previously pasted, and apparently all of the listed processors passed the required criteria for charting the law through time. What that criteria is, I couldn't tell you. Couldn't find it on the Wikipedia page. "Moore's law is the observation that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years." (Wikipedia)

opencl 8y ago
Yes. I read the wikipedia quote the first time you posted it. No need to say the exact same thing 5 times. The chart is clearly restricted to CPUs and ends in 2016. It's 2018 and the top chip on that chart still has the highest transistor count of any CPU on the market. Absolutely zero increase in transistor count for the type of chip that would go on that chart. Every category is seeing the exact same stagnation, Moore's law has been nowhere close to being matched in the past few years. Every chipmaker is struggling with their new nodes and falling way behind schedule on improvements. High-volume chips that normal people buy are really a far more realistic and useful barometer for Moore's law, and again you see the stagnation. Skylake and Kaby Lake are near-identical chips. Coffee Lake is ~25% bigger. There is no doubling of transistor counts going on in anything resembling an 18 month time frame.
- SlowBro 8y ago
  Okay, so the comment is then that you believe Moore's law no longer holds because for the past two years transistor counts on CPUs have not increased. On that basis, I might agree. Not (as you were stating earlier) about the sizes of the transistors themselves, or about GPUs from 2011 to 2015, or about 512Gb flash chips. None of that applied to this conversation, hence the desire to repeat myself. Thank you for finally clearing that up. Now that we're finally on the same page, I might agree. Are there no CPUs with higher transistor counts out there? Maybe ones you are not aware of yet?
  - opencl 8y ago
    Please show me this CPU with a higher transistor count. There is a maximum die size that each fab is able to make, mostly related to the optics used for their photolithography process. Most designs are nowhere near the limit because larger sizes are uneconomical to produce, though NVIDIA for example is on the record stating that TSMC is physically incapable of producing anything larger than their current GPUs.
    - SlowBro 8y ago
      > Please show me this CPU with a higher transistor count. That was my question to you. You claimed, "It's 2018 and the top chip on that chart still has the highest transistor count of any CPU on the market." Which I take to mean that you don't know of any CPU with any higher transistor counts, which is an argument from silence. There could be a CPU outside of your knowledge. So, we wait to see. Moore may be dead but "moore" time may be needed to hold the funeral.
      - qznc 8y ago
        I agree with both of you that transistor count per mm² is stagnating in the last years. However that has happened before. For example, 1982-1987 and 2007-2010 according to Wikipedia data. It is too early to declare Moore's Law dead.

opencl 8y ago

Yes. I read the wikipedia quote the first time you posted it. No need to say the exact same thing 5 times. The chart is clearly restricted to CPUs and ends in 2016. It's 2018 and the top chip on that chart still has the highest transistor count of any CPU on the market. Absolutely zero increase in transistor count for the type of chip that would go on that chart. Every category is seeing the exact same stagnation, Moore's law has been nowhere close to being matched in the past few years. Every chipmaker is struggling with their new nodes and falling way behind schedule on improvements. High-volume chips that normal people buy are really a far more realistic and useful barometer for Moore's law, and again you see the stagnation. Skylake and Kaby Lake are near-identical chips. Coffee Lake is ~25% bigger. There is no doubling of transistor counts going on in anything resembling an 18 month time frame.

SlowBro 8y ago
Okay, so the comment is then that you believe Moore's law no longer holds because for the past two years transistor counts on CPUs have not increased. On that basis, I might agree. Not (as you were stating earlier) about the sizes of the transistors themselves, or about GPUs from 2011 to 2015, or about 512Gb flash chips. None of that applied to this conversation, hence the desire to repeat myself. Thank you for finally clearing that up. Now that we're finally on the same page, I might agree. Are there no CPUs with higher transistor counts out there? Maybe ones you are not aware of yet?
- opencl 8y ago
  Please show me this CPU with a higher transistor count. There is a maximum die size that each fab is able to make, mostly related to the optics used for their photolithography process. Most designs are nowhere near the limit because larger sizes are uneconomical to produce, though NVIDIA for example is on the record stating that TSMC is physically incapable of producing anything larger than their current GPUs.
  - SlowBro 8y ago
    > Please show me this CPU with a higher transistor count. That was my question to you. You claimed, "It's 2018 and the top chip on that chart still has the highest transistor count of any CPU on the market." Which I take to mean that you don't know of any CPU with any higher transistor counts, which is an argument from silence. There could be a CPU outside of your knowledge. So, we wait to see. Moore may be dead but "moore" time may be needed to hold the funeral.
    - qznc 8y ago
      I agree with both of you that transistor count per mm² is stagnating in the last years. However that has happened before. For example, 1982-1987 and 2007-2010 according to Wikipedia data. It is too early to declare Moore's Law dead.