6 ms·

I believe tech salaries will decline starting in about 5 years, and accelerating in 10 years. Why? HUGE influx of people into the field, fueled by government

I believe tech salaries will decline starting in about 5 years, and accelerating in 10 years. Why? HUGE influx of people into the field, fueled by government programs, people in tech pushing for more people to join (why they would ever do this is beyond me, say goodbye to your salary), education in high school and younger, wide availability to learn online, outsourcing, etc... The influx of workers will simply outstrip demand once worker influx hits it's powerband in 5-10 years. Programming is on the same path that many craft careers have been on in years past. Mark my words - it's a blue collar job in the making. If you aren't specializing in some niche field of programming right now, you will be kicking yourself in 10 years.

MrL567 9y ago
https://blog.codinghorror.com/why-cant-programmers-program/ https://blog.codinghorror.com/why-cant-programmers-program/ Considering articles like this and the fact FizzBuzz tests are even a thing I wouldn't be so sure. I get your point, but the problem is while with enough time one can get it, quite a few people are going to hit a wall and not be able to pass it.
- umanwizard 9y ago
  That article was written over 10 years ago
  - megaman22 9y ago
    Has anything significant changed? We see the same phenomenon every time we try to hire developers.
PretzelFisch 9y ago
I felt this way 20 years ago before the dot net bubble popped. But I greatly miss judged the size of the demand. I am not sure the ten year outlook is that bad.
htormey 9y ago
I’m not so sure. Many tech related jobs are fundamentally hard things for the majority of people to do. Even those with college degrees. The problem with a bad hire in tech is that they can be worse than useless. Mentoring a junior software engineer can be very expensive and not many companies want to do that in an environment like the Bay Area where people hop between jobs frequently. Personally I think this is very short sighted and sad as I love mentoring junior engineers. Thinking logically and being able to clearly articulate your thought process is a rarer skill than you would think. I do a lot of teaching/consulting in the Bay Area. I see a lot of people coming out of bootcamps trying to get entry level positions. Some of the candidates graduating from these bootcamps are awesome and have lots of potential but those are few and far between. Also, their is a shortage of entry level positions. The best bootcamps filter heavily and generally only take people with a vaguely related college degree (Economics, law, physics, biology) or who have shown an aptitude (portfolio). I’m summary, I wouldn’t be surprised if the growth in tech jobs outstrips the supply of quality candidates. If anything having years of relevant experience is going to become even more valuable as time progresses. It’s the entry level candidates that are going to have a harder time landing a job and paying rent in the Bay.
- hiram112 9y ago
  Tend to agree. Law went through a huge spike in graduates and private law schools last decade, and when the economy hit bottom, many lawyers felt the worst of it, especially recent grads who've still never really been able to get a foot in the door, while still paying off six figures of law school debt. The difference between law and software engineering is that you can't really BS your way in software for too long without being caught. I knew a few friends who would never have been able to pass the math and engineering courses a decent CS program requires, but they were admitted and essentially paid a huge bribe (with loans) to get a law degree from a low-tier school, cram for months for the bar, and get certified. But they never made much money in law, and probably would have been better off choosing another path.
  - htormey 9y ago
    I agree, the situation with law school a few years ago is a good analogy. Just because you got a degree from a random law school school doesn’t mean you are going to cut it in the real world. My girlfriend is a lawyer who is transitioning to become a UX researcher via a bootcamp. The general standard of people in her bootcamp clas is quite high. On the young end you got recent grads from top tier schools (UC Berkeley English) on the older end of the spectrum you got a VP of marketing who’s worked at reasonably high profile consumer brands and who has a pretty good undergrad degree. Some of these bootcamps can be quite selective and aren’t easy to get into. They want highly motivated people who are smart. Those kinds of people are in short supply.

MrL567 9y ago

https://blog.codinghorror.com/why-cant-programmers-program/ https://blog.codinghorror.com/why-cant-programmers-program/ Considering articles like this and the fact FizzBuzz tests are even a thing I wouldn't be so sure. I get your point, but the problem is while with enough time one can get it, quite a few people are going to hit a wall and not be able to pass it.

umanwizard 9y ago
That article was written over 10 years ago
- megaman22 9y ago
  Has anything significant changed? We see the same phenomenon every time we try to hire developers.

PretzelFisch 9y ago

I felt this way 20 years ago before the dot net bubble popped. But I greatly miss judged the size of the demand. I am not sure the ten year outlook is that bad.

htormey 9y ago

I’m not so sure. Many tech related jobs are fundamentally hard things for the majority of people to do. Even those with college degrees. The problem with a bad hire in tech is that they can be worse than useless. Mentoring a junior software engineer can be very expensive and not many companies want to do that in an environment like the Bay Area where people hop between jobs frequently. Personally I think this is very short sighted and sad as I love mentoring junior engineers. Thinking logically and being able to clearly articulate your thought process is a rarer skill than you would think. I do a lot of teaching/consulting in the Bay Area. I see a lot of people coming out of bootcamps trying to get entry level positions. Some of the candidates graduating from these bootcamps are awesome and have lots of potential but those are few and far between. Also, their is a shortage of entry level positions. The best bootcamps filter heavily and generally only take people with a vaguely related college degree (Economics, law, physics, biology) or who have shown an aptitude (portfolio). I’m summary, I wouldn’t be surprised if the growth in tech jobs outstrips the supply of quality candidates. If anything having years of relevant experience is going to become even more valuable as time progresses. It’s the entry level candidates that are going to have a harder time landing a job and paying rent in the Bay.

hiram112 9y ago
Tend to agree. Law went through a huge spike in graduates and private law schools last decade, and when the economy hit bottom, many lawyers felt the worst of it, especially recent grads who've still never really been able to get a foot in the door, while still paying off six figures of law school debt. The difference between law and software engineering is that you can't really BS your way in software for too long without being caught. I knew a few friends who would never have been able to pass the math and engineering courses a decent CS program requires, but they were admitted and essentially paid a huge bribe (with loans) to get a law degree from a low-tier school, cram for months for the bar, and get certified. But they never made much money in law, and probably would have been better off choosing another path.
- htormey 9y ago
  I agree, the situation with law school a few years ago is a good analogy. Just because you got a degree from a random law school school doesn’t mean you are going to cut it in the real world. My girlfriend is a lawyer who is transitioning to become a UX researcher via a bootcamp. The general standard of people in her bootcamp clas is quite high. On the young end you got recent grads from top tier schools (UC Berkeley English) on the older end of the spectrum you got a VP of marketing who’s worked at reasonably high profile consumer brands and who has a pretty good undergrad degree. Some of these bootcamps can be quite selective and aren’t easy to get into. They want highly motivated people who are smart. Those kinds of people are in short supply.