3 ms·

Moore's law is alive and well. If it is slowing at all it is evidently due to monopoly/lack of competition more than anything else. It feels like Moore's law

by vokep 9y ago

Moore's law is alive and well. If it is slowing at all it is evidently due to monopoly/lack of competition more than anything else. It feels like Moore's law is dead because there actually were a few more laws at play which have died. We went from exponential-exponential to just exponential, which feels like going from exponential to linear from our perspective, but is not the death of Moore's law. Can't make transistors smaller? just add more! Speed of light becoming a problem? Stack em! Speed of light and heat becoming a problem again? Stack cores, improve multi-core architecture in both hardware/software and enjoy another many decades of Moore's law. It won't be dieing any time soon

Terretta 9y ago
If it’s slowing? Intel says it is. And Moore said dying in next decade. Wikipedia: Moore's law is an observation and projection of an historical trend and not a physical or natural law. Although the rate held steady from 1975 until around 2012, the rate was faster during the first decade. In general, it is not logically sound to extrapolate from the historical growth rate into the indefinite future. For example, the 2010 update to the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors, predicted that growth would slow around 2013, and in 2015 Gordon Moore foresaw that the rate of progress would reach saturation: "I see Moore's law dying here in the next decade or so." Intel stated in 2015 that the pace of advancement has slowed, starting at the 22 nm feature width around 2012, and continuing at 14 nm. Brian Krzanich, CEO of Intel, announced, "Our cadence today is closer to two and a half years than two." Intel is expected to reach the 10 nm node in 2018, a three-year cadence. He cited Moore's 1975 revision as a precedent for the current deceleration, which results from technical challenges and is "a natural part of the history of Moore's law." More background in recent article here on 40 years of processor performance: https://www.eejournal.com/article/fifty-or-sixty-years-of-processor-developmentfor-this/ https://www.eejournal.com/article/fifty-or-sixty-years-of-pr... HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16750733 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16750733

by vokep 9y ago

Terretta 9y ago

If it’s slowing? Intel says it is. And Moore said dying in next decade. Wikipedia: Moore's law is an observation and projection of an historical trend and not a physical or natural law. Although the rate held steady from 1975 until around 2012, the rate was faster during the first decade. In general, it is not logically sound to extrapolate from the historical growth rate into the indefinite future. For example, the 2010 update to the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors, predicted that growth would slow around 2013, and in 2015 Gordon Moore foresaw that the rate of progress would reach saturation: "I see Moore's law dying here in the next decade or so." Intel stated in 2015 that the pace of advancement has slowed, starting at the 22 nm feature width around 2012, and continuing at 14 nm. Brian Krzanich, CEO of Intel, announced, "Our cadence today is closer to two and a half years than two." Intel is expected to reach the 10 nm node in 2018, a three-year cadence. He cited Moore's 1975 revision as a precedent for the current deceleration, which results from technical challenges and is "a natural part of the history of Moore's law." More background in recent article here on 40 years of processor performance: https://www.eejournal.com/article/fifty-or-sixty-years-of-processor-developmentfor-this/ https://www.eejournal.com/article/fifty-or-sixty-years-of-pr... HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16750733 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16750733