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Android Will Be Number 2 Mobile Operating System Worldwide by Year-End

55 points by Garbage 16y ago

cryptoz 16y ago
While the Year of the Linux Desktop may forever be a joke, 2010 is the Year of Linux on the Small Computer you Carry With You Everywhere.
- jonknee 16y ago
  And the Small Computer you Carry With You Everywhere is the new Desktop so in the end Linux will get there.
  - jacquesm 16y ago
    If and when android tablets are going to be sold in numbers the 'small computer' may not even be all that small.
    - martythemaniak 16y ago
      It will be small, medium large and everything in between.
    - cryptoz 16y ago
      I think Chrome OS tablets and netbooks/desktops are more likely to succeed than Android tablets actually. They both run the Linux kernel so for this discussion perhaps the point is moot.
- rauljara 16y ago
  If only... the year of the Linux Desktop was also supposed to be the year of the open operating system. I have nothing but nice things to say about the android that google makes, but the custom versions of android that manufacturers ship tend to be just awful. There are exceptions, of course, but I can't see the proliferation of android on cheap devices reversing this trend. The spirit of openness is truly being perverted by the uninstallable crapware being put on those phones. The year of linux everywhere finally arrives, but the only way it managed to get here was by becoming most of what the open software movement was against.
  - mjgoins 16y ago
    It's particularly bad as a long-time free software desktop user who finally this month broke down and bought an Android phone as his first smart phone. It's like going back to the days of Windows 95. Back to the days when you had no idea what you were downloading installing when you grabbed a free utility off the 'net, and had no legal way of finding out.
- nanairo 16y ago
  Lol... sorry, but that sounds desperation. :D If that were the case then we already got the Year of Unix on the desktop and the Year of Unix on the smartphone. Yep, I am talking of OS X. Funnily enough Linux people (and others) laughed at the idea that OS X is Unix... it was too far from it. I think we can agree that Android is not really Linux, at least not what we mean colloquially for it. So no, it won't be the year of the Linux. But yes it will be the year of FOSS on your mobile. That, I think, is the big novelty. :)
keithwarren 16y ago
I always get a laugh out of people who get excited about this, I think the far more interesting statistic would be stickiness factors - once you are on a phone platform, how likely are you to stay. For example, what percentage of people get an iPhone and then when their 2 year contract expires - get another iPhone because they love it (despite AT&T). It is hard to judge Android in that context right now because for all the noise it has made in the past year it is still relatively new in the scope of phone devices and carrier contracts. I think RIM has been pretty strong historically in this kind of metric and iPhone has proven well here too.
- j_b_f 16y ago
  Great point. I'd also like to know how people actually use the devices. How many people download apps regularly, how many minutes they spend using the web browser daily. I bet you'd see some really differences between the platforms.
- asdfghjkjnmhb 16y ago
  I expect all the phones will become linux but you won't know. The underlying core OS will be a linux derivative, but the layers on top will vary so much that switching from one brand to another will be the same difference as switching between Symbian and Motorola-OS is now.
- jsm386 16y ago
  On Stickiness - It doesn't look good for RIM (this was back in March): Some 40% of Blackberry users, according to CrowdScience, prefer the iPhone as their next smartphone purchase. Even more, some 32% of Blackberry users said that they would drop their Crackberry for the latest Android offering, the Nexus One. http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2010/03/15/blackberry-users-iphone-android-envy-report/ http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2010/03/15/blackberry-users-iph...
keithwarren 16y ago
Unless Google gets a handle on consistency in the user experience then this wont last long. I love my EVO and left iPhone for it but the 3rd party app market is crap and I feel like I have a phone with multiple personalities.
brownleej 16y ago
I've never understood the point of these marketshare prediction pieces. What does it matter if some form of Android runs on more phones? Who actually cares? I know that emphasizing the horse race drives up page views, but is it actually worthwhile news? Market share numbers for Android have to be interpreted differently. A phone can run Android without using any Google services, or running any third-party Android apps. This will become more common as Android becomes more popular on low-end devices, as this article predicts. If a phone doesn't run Google services, then it's not generating any more revenue for Google than a non-Android smartphone. If it's not running third-party apps, then it's not relevant for developers deciding which system to invest in. On desktop systems, we have a clear idea of what market share means. A higher Windows market share means more revenue for Microsoft, and a better return for their investors. It also means a larger market for third party developers. The same can be said of Mac OS, and even Linux, to an extent. It doesn't work for iOS and Android. I think we need a better metric than market share when evaluating the mobile market.
- jacquesm 16y ago
  It helps if you are not large enough to support both platforms. Even though yesterdays relaxation of the app store rules goes a long way towards making it possible to run the same app on both (that will never be the 'optimal' solution on either platform though).
mjfern 16y ago
A big question for me is what are the implications for Apple iOS given the quick diffusion of the Android OS. Will Apple iOS and the iPhone go the way of the Macintosh? A niche player in a very big market?
- mcantelon 16y ago
  Seems like Apple is following the same plan as before: keep hardware closed, keep OS closed. Microsoft beat them because they provided a platform on which hardware manufacturers could compete.
  - tvon 16y ago
    Everyone says this but there was so much more going on I think it's a bit silly to pretend that "open v closed" is a safe way to summarize "Microsoft v Apple" in the 80's/90's.
    - InclinedPlane 16y ago
      Open vs. closed is perhaps misleading, but at the very least it's obvious that MS targeted high-volume sales with Windows while Apple targeted low-volume sales with the Mac / Mac OS. Apple built in a huge profit margin on its end-to-end system, putting it out of reach of much of the market. MS built in a smaller per-unit profit on its OS, but since the incremental cost of software is negligible this put them in a much better position since increased volume increases their profit margin almost without limit.
      - achompas 16y ago
        Microsoft also had a first-to-market advantage with early versions of Windows, and they also gained from almost no productivity app competiton back in the 1990s. So what you're saying is further multiplied by all the businesses who chose Win 95 over Mac OS 8, then stuck with Windows when upgrading their equipment.
        16y ago
protomyth 16y ago
It seems they are not counting iPod touches / iPads. For a developer, total ecosystem size and probability that owners will buy apps is a little more important. On a tangent, Nintendo Wii had really good sales numbers, but I wonder if the number of games bought per console was around the same amount as the PS/3 or XBox 360? I have my doubts. I think the game console market shares is a more probably predictor of phone market share than PC sales (i.e. no highlander).
- bcrawl 16y ago
  The article clearly mentioned, "mobile operating system". iOS powers iphone, ipod, ipad, etc. On a tangent, there hasnt been much talk about how the corporate policies have evolved since the smartphone era. I bet we will see companies rolling out custom android OS deployed on stock hardware such as EVO given out to employees, with restricted permissions and access.
  - protomyth 16y ago
    Well, I would dispute the numbers then. It doesn't look at all like the iPod touch is really given consideration. I could see that if Dell was a bigger android player, but it really takes a vendor with sales / support leading the charge. HP would be a probable except for the Palm purchase.
  - cubicle67 16y ago
    It may have mentioned "mobile operating system", but the figures are clearly excluding something. I think there's about 100mm iOS devices sold to date, but these figures show less than 50mm for 2010
- achompas 16y ago
  You're interested in gaming software tie ratios. Here's a reference, but basically: Wii had a strong tie ratio for the first year or so, then was overtaken by the PS3. 360 dominates both, if I recall correctly (can't see the article at work). http://www.joystiq.com/2009/04/22/ps3s-tie-ratio-creeps-above-wiis/ http://www.joystiq.com/2009/04/22/ps3s-tie-ratio-creeps-abov...
credo 16y ago
Given the iPhone's exclusivity with AT&T in the US, Android's US growth isn't surprising. However, it is interesting to see Gartner worldwide projections. Does anyone have links to Android vs iPhone market-share-data for countries where they are both available on all/most carriers ?
diego_moita 16y ago
Nobody in HN pays attention when you say that Apple doesn't really matter that much, but I'll try it anyway: Apple's share in the smartphone market is too small and decreasing. Source http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-20015799-94.html http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-20015799-94.html The real contenders are Android and Symbian. Blackberry is small but seems stable. Windows 7 might become a surprise. Apple will not lead the pack.
- rbanffy 16y ago
  Symbian is dead - or will be as soon as dumbphones die. That leaves iOS and Android and, perhaps, RIM. For WinMo 7 to be measurable, Microsoft will have to pull one heck of a miracle.
- cubicle67 16y ago
  Anyone who thinks they can extrapolate mobile data 4 years into the future is either completely ignorant on the subject or deliberately trying to deceive

55 points by Garbage 16y ago

While the Year of the Linux Desktop may forever be a joke, 2010 is the Year of Linux on the Small Computer you Carry With You Everywhere.

jonknee 16y ago
And the Small Computer you Carry With You Everywhere is the new Desktop so in the end Linux will get there.
- jacquesm 16y ago
  If and when android tablets are going to be sold in numbers the 'small computer' may not even be all that small.
  - martythemaniak 16y ago
    It will be small, medium large and everything in between.
  - cryptoz 16y ago
    I think Chrome OS tablets and netbooks/desktops are more likely to succeed than Android tablets actually. They both run the Linux kernel so for this discussion perhaps the point is moot.
rauljara 16y ago
If only... the year of the Linux Desktop was also supposed to be the year of the open operating system. I have nothing but nice things to say about the android that google makes, but the custom versions of android that manufacturers ship tend to be just awful. There are exceptions, of course, but I can't see the proliferation of android on cheap devices reversing this trend. The spirit of openness is truly being perverted by the uninstallable crapware being put on those phones. The year of linux everywhere finally arrives, but the only way it managed to get here was by becoming most of what the open software movement was against.
- mjgoins 16y ago
  It's particularly bad as a long-time free software desktop user who finally this month broke down and bought an Android phone as his first smart phone. It's like going back to the days of Windows 95. Back to the days when you had no idea what you were downloading installing when you grabbed a free utility off the 'net, and had no legal way of finding out.
nanairo 16y ago
Lol... sorry, but that sounds desperation. :D If that were the case then we already got the Year of Unix on the desktop and the Year of Unix on the smartphone. Yep, I am talking of OS X. Funnily enough Linux people (and others) laughed at the idea that OS X is Unix... it was too far from it. I think we can agree that Android is not really Linux, at least not what we mean colloquially for it. So no, it won't be the year of the Linux. But yes it will be the year of FOSS on your mobile. That, I think, is the big novelty. :)

keithwarren 16y ago

I always get a laugh out of people who get excited about this, I think the far more interesting statistic would be stickiness factors - once you are on a phone platform, how likely are you to stay. For example, what percentage of people get an iPhone and then when their 2 year contract expires - get another iPhone because they love it (despite AT&T). It is hard to judge Android in that context right now because for all the noise it has made in the past year it is still relatively new in the scope of phone devices and carrier contracts. I think RIM has been pretty strong historically in this kind of metric and iPhone has proven well here too.

j_b_f 16y ago
Great point. I'd also like to know how people actually use the devices. How many people download apps regularly, how many minutes they spend using the web browser daily. I bet you'd see some really differences between the platforms.
asdfghjkjnmhb 16y ago
I expect all the phones will become linux but you won't know. The underlying core OS will be a linux derivative, but the layers on top will vary so much that switching from one brand to another will be the same difference as switching between Symbian and Motorola-OS is now.
jsm386 16y ago
On Stickiness - It doesn't look good for RIM (this was back in March): Some 40% of Blackberry users, according to CrowdScience, prefer the iPhone as their next smartphone purchase. Even more, some 32% of Blackberry users said that they would drop their Crackberry for the latest Android offering, the Nexus One. http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2010/03/15/blackberry-users-iphone-android-envy-report/ http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2010/03/15/blackberry-users-iph...

keithwarren 16y ago

Unless Google gets a handle on consistency in the user experience then this wont last long. I love my EVO and left iPhone for it but the 3rd party app market is crap and I feel like I have a phone with multiple personalities.

brownleej 16y ago

I've never understood the point of these marketshare prediction pieces. What does it matter if some form of Android runs on more phones? Who actually cares? I know that emphasizing the horse race drives up page views, but is it actually worthwhile news? Market share numbers for Android have to be interpreted differently. A phone can run Android without using any Google services, or running any third-party Android apps. This will become more common as Android becomes more popular on low-end devices, as this article predicts. If a phone doesn't run Google services, then it's not generating any more revenue for Google than a non-Android smartphone. If it's not running third-party apps, then it's not relevant for developers deciding which system to invest in. On desktop systems, we have a clear idea of what market share means. A higher Windows market share means more revenue for Microsoft, and a better return for their investors. It also means a larger market for third party developers. The same can be said of Mac OS, and even Linux, to an extent. It doesn't work for iOS and Android. I think we need a better metric than market share when evaluating the mobile market.

jacquesm 16y ago
It helps if you are not large enough to support both platforms. Even though yesterdays relaxation of the app store rules goes a long way towards making it possible to run the same app on both (that will never be the 'optimal' solution on either platform though).

mjfern 16y ago

A big question for me is what are the implications for Apple iOS given the quick diffusion of the Android OS. Will Apple iOS and the iPhone go the way of the Macintosh? A niche player in a very big market?

mcantelon 16y ago
Seems like Apple is following the same plan as before: keep hardware closed, keep OS closed. Microsoft beat them because they provided a platform on which hardware manufacturers could compete.
- tvon 16y ago
  Everyone says this but there was so much more going on I think it's a bit silly to pretend that "open v closed" is a safe way to summarize "Microsoft v Apple" in the 80's/90's.
  - InclinedPlane 16y ago
    Open vs. closed is perhaps misleading, but at the very least it's obvious that MS targeted high-volume sales with Windows while Apple targeted low-volume sales with the Mac / Mac OS. Apple built in a huge profit margin on its end-to-end system, putting it out of reach of much of the market. MS built in a smaller per-unit profit on its OS, but since the incremental cost of software is negligible this put them in a much better position since increased volume increases their profit margin almost without limit.
    - achompas 16y ago
      Microsoft also had a first-to-market advantage with early versions of Windows, and they also gained from almost no productivity app competiton back in the 1990s. So what you're saying is further multiplied by all the businesses who chose Win 95 over Mac OS 8, then stuck with Windows when upgrading their equipment.
      - 16y ago

protomyth 16y ago

It seems they are not counting iPod touches / iPads. For a developer, total ecosystem size and probability that owners will buy apps is a little more important. On a tangent, Nintendo Wii had really good sales numbers, but I wonder if the number of games bought per console was around the same amount as the PS/3 or XBox 360? I have my doubts. I think the game console market shares is a more probably predictor of phone market share than PC sales (i.e. no highlander).

bcrawl 16y ago
The article clearly mentioned, "mobile operating system". iOS powers iphone, ipod, ipad, etc. On a tangent, there hasnt been much talk about how the corporate policies have evolved since the smartphone era. I bet we will see companies rolling out custom android OS deployed on stock hardware such as EVO given out to employees, with restricted permissions and access.
- protomyth 16y ago
  Well, I would dispute the numbers then. It doesn't look at all like the iPod touch is really given consideration. I could see that if Dell was a bigger android player, but it really takes a vendor with sales / support leading the charge. HP would be a probable except for the Palm purchase.
- cubicle67 16y ago
  It may have mentioned "mobile operating system", but the figures are clearly excluding something. I think there's about 100mm iOS devices sold to date, but these figures show less than 50mm for 2010
achompas 16y ago
You're interested in gaming software tie ratios. Here's a reference, but basically: Wii had a strong tie ratio for the first year or so, then was overtaken by the PS3. 360 dominates both, if I recall correctly (can't see the article at work). http://www.joystiq.com/2009/04/22/ps3s-tie-ratio-creeps-above-wiis/ http://www.joystiq.com/2009/04/22/ps3s-tie-ratio-creeps-abov...

credo 16y ago

Given the iPhone's exclusivity with AT&T in the US, Android's US growth isn't surprising. However, it is interesting to see Gartner worldwide projections. Does anyone have links to Android vs iPhone market-share-data for countries where they are both available on all/most carriers ?

diego_moita 16y ago

Nobody in HN pays attention when you say that Apple doesn't really matter that much, but I'll try it anyway: Apple's share in the smartphone market is too small and decreasing. Source http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-20015799-94.html http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-20015799-94.html The real contenders are Android and Symbian. Blackberry is small but seems stable. Windows 7 might become a surprise. Apple will not lead the pack.

rbanffy 16y ago
Symbian is dead - or will be as soon as dumbphones die. That leaves iOS and Android and, perhaps, RIM. For WinMo 7 to be measurable, Microsoft will have to pull one heck of a miracle.
cubicle67 16y ago
Anyone who thinks they can extrapolate mobile data 4 years into the future is either completely ignorant on the subject or deliberately trying to deceive