I would draw a sharp distinction between 'understanding' and 'predictability'. Understanding is about our knowledge of and ability to manipulate the world. Pred

I would draw a sharp distinction between 'understanding' and 'predictability'. Understanding is about our knowledge of and ability to manipulate the world. Predictability is our ability to reliably forecast the future of the social world. Of course our understanding has increased. But that has generated rapid and accelerating changes in society and a monumental increase in its complexity, which together, make it significantly harder to predict the future of the social world. I am not saying that we don't have a better predictive grasp of the natural world. We obviously do.