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Your analysis entirely leaves out the most important factor which is: who are the “poles”? China is an authoritarian, control-freak one-party-superstate that j

Your analysis entirely leaves out the most important factor which is: who are the “poles”? China is an authoritarian, control-freak one-party-superstate that jails and kills political opposition. Will the world be more “peaceful” if there’s a multipolar collection of those?

Asdfbla 9y ago
I suspect some people are guessing that a multipolar world will be less interventionist (since the great powers might block each other from interfering too much) and therefore adventures like the Iraq war are less likely to happen again. This might arguably make the world more peaceful, though it might allow civil wars to continue for longer. No idea if it's true or will work out that way, but it's one hypothesis I think is out there. Sure, the downside of China's rise is that authoritarian states have more legitimacy, but it's not like the western powers did much about those states back when they were the hegemons, so I'm not sure if the argument carries much weight either.
- rgbrenner 9y ago
  But that's not what happened during the cold war. The US and Soviet Union both fought over allies, influenced affairs in other countries, engaged in proxy wars, etc You say "block intervention"... how does that work? That sounds like a proxy war to me... like the korean war, or vietnam, or afghanistan in the 80s. It's not peace, it's just bloodier. The world is more peaceful today without the Soviet Unions fight for influence.
thiagoharry 9y ago
China is less imperialistic and appears to mess less with other country affairs. China never gave support for a dictatorship in my country. USA also jailed and persecuted the Black Panthers and had the macarthism. Their 2 political parties which are able to win elections sometimes appears to be very similar, at least about their foreign policy which impacts the world.
- niccccccccc 9y ago
  > China is less imperialistic and appears to mess less with other country affairs China threatens Taiwan INVASION to 'unify state' with FORCE if US Navy arrive https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/890698/World-War-3-China-Taiwan-invasion-US-navy-news-latest-army-navy-Tsai-Ing-wen-democracy https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/890698/World-War-3-Chin... Chinese Police Are Demanding Personal Information From Uighurs in France http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/02/chinese-police-are-secretly-demanding-personal-information-from-french-citizens-uighurs-xinjiang/ http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/02/chinese-police-are-secre... China demands immediate halt to THAAD missile system now ‘operational’ in South Korea http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2092259/north-korea-says-us-bomber-mission-pushes-peninsula-brink http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2092259/nort...
- dralley 9y ago
  Lol. Tell that to Nepal and Taiwan.

Asdfbla 9y ago

I suspect some people are guessing that a multipolar world will be less interventionist (since the great powers might block each other from interfering too much) and therefore adventures like the Iraq war are less likely to happen again. This might arguably make the world more peaceful, though it might allow civil wars to continue for longer. No idea if it's true or will work out that way, but it's one hypothesis I think is out there. Sure, the downside of China's rise is that authoritarian states have more legitimacy, but it's not like the western powers did much about those states back when they were the hegemons, so I'm not sure if the argument carries much weight either.

rgbrenner 9y ago
But that's not what happened during the cold war. The US and Soviet Union both fought over allies, influenced affairs in other countries, engaged in proxy wars, etc You say "block intervention"... how does that work? That sounds like a proxy war to me... like the korean war, or vietnam, or afghanistan in the 80s. It's not peace, it's just bloodier. The world is more peaceful today without the Soviet Unions fight for influence.

thiagoharry 9y ago

China is less imperialistic and appears to mess less with other country affairs. China never gave support for a dictatorship in my country. USA also jailed and persecuted the Black Panthers and had the macarthism. Their 2 political parties which are able to win elections sometimes appears to be very similar, at least about their foreign policy which impacts the world.

niccccccccc 9y ago
> China is less imperialistic and appears to mess less with other country affairs China threatens Taiwan INVASION to 'unify state' with FORCE if US Navy arrive https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/890698/World-War-3-China-Taiwan-invasion-US-navy-news-latest-army-navy-Tsai-Ing-wen-democracy https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/890698/World-War-3-Chin... Chinese Police Are Demanding Personal Information From Uighurs in France http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/02/chinese-police-are-secretly-demanding-personal-information-from-french-citizens-uighurs-xinjiang/ http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/02/chinese-police-are-secre... China demands immediate halt to THAAD missile system now ‘operational’ in South Korea http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2092259/north-korea-says-us-bomber-mission-pushes-peninsula-brink http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/2092259/nort...
dralley 9y ago
Lol. Tell that to Nepal and Taiwan.