Keep in mind: 1. many militaries do studies like this. contingency planning. they consider it part of their overall mission of defending their country and inte

Keep in mind: 1. many militaries do studies like this. contingency planning. they consider it part of their overall mission of defending their country and interests 2. as the supply of cheaper oil shrinks relative to demand, price increases and then more expensive-to-deliver oil becomes marketable (like from shale/sands, or synthetics). and alternate energies become more attractive and economically feasible (solar, wind, geothermal, tidal, nuclear, etc.) and people increasingly try to use less oil. all of this adds up. 3. nobody can predict the future with certainty, and the accuracy and reliability tends to go down the farther into the future one tries to evaluate