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A couple related observations: 1) With the dramatic rise and then fall of the Nasdaq back in 2001, with similar timing (peak right around New Years Day [0]), a
by jaycroft 9y ago
A couple related observations:
1) With the dramatic rise and then fall of the Nasdaq back in 2001, with similar timing (peak right around New Years Day [0]), and a similar amount of new and uninformed market participants (online day trading just beginning to become a thing), could some of the early 2001 market performance be due to a similar dynamic? Noob traders make bank in 2000, log in to H&R block, start doing their taxes, and then have an oh shit moment when they come to the question about "have you bought or sold any stocks this year?"
2) Stock trading happened through United States institutions. Much of crypto trading does not. Many people may have started with $1k in Binance or Bitfinex, and seen that go up by more than a multiple of 10. Many of those people, I feel, are likely to accidentally commit a felony this year by failing to report their foreign account holdings because they are similarly unaware of the consequences of having money outside their down the street bank. FBAR is a real thing, people face serious fines (at least up to 10k for any infringement, 10k plus half your offshore assets and potential jail time if willfully [1]).
[0]http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/ND/2001/0/continuous.html http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/ND/2001/0/contin...
[1]https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employed/report-of-foreign-bank-and-financial-accounts-fbar https://www.irs.gov/businesses/small-businesses-self-employe...
- lavezzi 9y ago"The IRS will not impose a penalty for the failure to file the delinquent FBARs if income from the foreign financial accounts reported on the delinquent FBARs is properly reported and taxes are paid on your U.S. tax return, and you have not previously been contacted regarding an income tax examination or a request for delinquent returns for the years for which the delinquent FBARs are submitted."
- cityhall 9y agoI've made this same prediction before. In 2001 it was driven by people owing AMT from option exercises in addition to day trading. We got tax paperwork from our brokers though - I'm not sure how many crypto traders will even realize they owe taxes. The crypto market is less dependent on the US but it may also be priced at the margins and unable to absorb a big selloff.