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Tesla as a company will be fine if they start focusing more on other initiatives (trailer trucks, solar panels, batteries, etc). “Self-driving” fancy/family ca

by ameen 9y ago

Tesla as a company will be fine if they start focusing more on other initiatives (trailer trucks, solar panels, batteries, etc). “Self-driving” fancy/family cars aren't a good solution for the future of our already populated cities. Mass transit is. Hyperloop/TBC have a lot more growth potential than Tesla's Model (x) line does. I was one of Tesla motors' biggest fans but I can't in good faith support them (not Tesla Inc) over a proper public transport solution. It is at best a short term solution and doesn't push humanity forward. 10-20 years down the line I can see them spinning off the Passenger car division, or they will see it impacting their other projects negatively.

jfoster 9y ago
They should. It looks like Waymo & partners will easily beat them to market on the electric & autonomous car future, anyway. Big energy companies tend to have a market cap at least 10x big car companies, anyway. That's where their future is. The only way I see that they could turn the car business around is if they somehow get to full autonomy in the market very soon, and then (per master plan part deux) essentially are selling cars as a means of having car owners investing in their autonomous rides network. The clock is ticking on that, though; Waymo seem to be scaling very aggressively.
- jijojv 9y ago
  Yes Google/waymo has been at it since 2009. Musk better deliver the self-driving vaporware [1] he started selling since Oct'16 as shown in the video in https://www.tesla.com/autopilot https://www.tesla.com/autopilot before he can stall the lawsuit [2] any further... 1. https://www.hbsslaw.com/uploads/case_downloads/tesla_ap2/teslaclassactioncomplaint.pdf https://www.hbsslaw.com/uploads/case_downloads/tesla_ap2/tes... 2. https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/21195146/Dean_Sheikh_et_al_v_Tesla,_Inc https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/21195146/Dean_Sheik...
jcranmer 9y ago
Hyperloop has no growth potential, and TBC might (depending on how competent they are at bringing tunneling costs down, which doesn't have good augurs at the moment). The problem with the "mass" transit concepts of Hyperloop and TBC's skates concept is that they are trash at throughput [1]. Furthermore, as unproven technology, that means that you're unlikely to win contracts without spending the company's own money building demonstration tracks. Even early contracts are likely to be structured in such a way that substantial portions of cost overruns are borne not by the public. [1] Capacity is primarily determined by station dwell times and switch clear times, which means it's driven primarily by consists per hour. The original proposals here basically propose passenger capacity per consist that's in the region of 1% of bespoke mass transit systems.
s2g 9y ago
> Hyperloop lol doesn't Elon hate buses? hm.

by ameen 9y ago

jfoster 9y ago

They should. It looks like Waymo & partners will easily beat them to market on the electric & autonomous car future, anyway. Big energy companies tend to have a market cap at least 10x big car companies, anyway. That's where their future is. The only way I see that they could turn the car business around is if they somehow get to full autonomy in the market very soon, and then (per master plan part deux) essentially are selling cars as a means of having car owners investing in their autonomous rides network. The clock is ticking on that, though; Waymo seem to be scaling very aggressively.

jijojv 9y ago
Yes Google/waymo has been at it since 2009. Musk better deliver the self-driving vaporware [1] he started selling since Oct'16 as shown in the video in https://www.tesla.com/autopilot https://www.tesla.com/autopilot before he can stall the lawsuit [2] any further... 1. https://www.hbsslaw.com/uploads/case_downloads/tesla_ap2/teslaclassactioncomplaint.pdf https://www.hbsslaw.com/uploads/case_downloads/tesla_ap2/tes... 2. https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/21195146/Dean_Sheikh_et_al_v_Tesla,_Inc https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/21195146/Dean_Sheik...

jcranmer 9y ago

Hyperloop has no growth potential, and TBC might (depending on how competent they are at bringing tunneling costs down, which doesn't have good augurs at the moment). The problem with the "mass" transit concepts of Hyperloop and TBC's skates concept is that they are trash at throughput [1]. Furthermore, as unproven technology, that means that you're unlikely to win contracts without spending the company's own money building demonstration tracks. Even early contracts are likely to be structured in such a way that substantial portions of cost overruns are borne not by the public. [1] Capacity is primarily determined by station dwell times and switch clear times, which means it's driven primarily by consists per hour. The original proposals here basically propose passenger capacity per consist that's in the region of 1% of bespoke mass transit systems.

s2g 9y ago

> Hyperloop lol doesn't Elon hate buses? hm.