5 ms·

I don't see anyone here commenting on this, but there's an interesting software / UI angle in this story: the captain preferred the fancier, animated-map-style

I don't see anyone here commenting on this, but there's an interesting software / UI angle in this story: the captain preferred the fancier, animated-map-style weather reports from a 3rd-party company (B.V.S. reports) to the more terse text-only reports from the National Hurricane Center (sat-C reports). Turns out, the B.V.S reports were using raw data that was 10 to 12 hours old - and they didn't explicitly mention that. In the case of a rapidly evolving hurricane, it mattered a lot. > The B.V.S. map included a time stamp that showed when the processing had been completed, but gave no indication of the age of the raw data on which the forecast was based. Davidson knew that all the forecasts were uncertain, and that they sometimes disagreed. But how aware was he that when he looked at the B.V.S. maps he was looking into the past? [...] > Davidson dismissed the plan with a thank-you and did not come to the bridge. Evidence suggests that he was still showing a preference for the animated B.V.S. graphics, which indicated the storm progressing more slowly.

r00fus 9y ago
Is that really a UI issue or misrepresented data? If I see a timestamp on rapidly changing data I sure as hell would like to see if there's a delayed effective stamp (most stock market tickers indicate the "effective date" of their data or say clearly there's a XX min delay).
- anonoholic 9y ago
  > Is that really a UI issue? More of a UX issue. The worst possible kind.
forapurpose 9y ago
Yes, I saw the same thing. Even when I've had people reviewing logs, I make the date prominent and train them to check it first. BVS's data is far more critical. (I learned from a burnt hand: We engaged a non-technical but reliable user to check the daily backup log for errors and report any to us. One day we needed the backup and discovered it hadn't run at all for many weeks. Ouch. I asked the user; she said she indeed checked the logs daily and they were fine. She was right: She was seeing the log from the last backup, unchanged every day. My fault entirely, not hers: We should have anticipated the date problem, and we should have utilized someone technically literate enough to understand what they were reading - in this case, someone who would recognize an 'obvious' problem such as the numbers of files and bytes not changing. And we should have tested our backups more often, but that old lesson almost isn't worth mentioning.)
- jacquesm 9y ago
  Not that it will comfort you much but you are hardly alone in this. Bad backups, logging on the same servers as where access takes place and single points of failure in personnel are some of the most frequently occurring things I come across in my 'day job'.
  - forapurpose 9y ago
    Thanks, and I know it well; that was an early lesson. Backups in particular are an amazing cesspool of problems for something so conceptually simple.
    - jacquesm 9y ago
      That's the thing that always bugs me, the vast majority of the items that I end up with on the todo list after a review would cost $0 or very little to get right. Super frustrating. And you can't even rely on things staying fixed either, you have to review periodically or it will be back to square #1 within the year.
      - forapurpose 9y ago
        > the vast majority of the items that I end up with on the todo list after a review would cost $0 or very little to get right Agreed, and I drive people crazy with my focus on those things. Thorough design and implementation (including testing) up front cost far less than correcting problems later, and they don't add the enormous cost of downtime and other failures. But ... I've found that human beings, even serious professionals, have a capacity limit for details, and it's not very high; and if it's for an over-the-horizon risk, attention is very limited. That is my biggest constraint, editing down the details, organizing them, automating them, and making trade-offs to reduce them to a point where others don't throw up their hands. Also, it's hard to get the budget for that up front investment in what looks to others like obsessiveness (it's not; it's carefully considered ROI). So when you show up for your review (I don't know exactly what you do, but I have an impression), 1,000 details might have been addressed but 50 overlooked. or 1,050 details might have been implemented but there was no capacity for the next 100 - resources ran out, something else came up, etc. So I can see it both ways.
badloginagain 9y ago
Also note that B.V.S did appear to have a 'Hourly Update' feature that did not appear to be subscribed to. It's also important to realize that the captain was confident with the plan- except the storm in question was abnormal. That's an important fact to consider, as it throws the mariners heuristics off deciding how much more attention to pay.
- SlowBro 9y ago
  > Also note that B.V.S did appear to have a 'Hourly Update' feature that did not appear to be subscribed to. From the article, "The Coast Guard report also noted that “El Faro crew did not take advantage of B.V.S.’s tropical update feature,” which would have provided hourly updates." So hourly updates apparently were available even if not subscribed to.
  - floatingatoll 9y ago
    There’s an interesting ethics question here: If your ship’s location places you near a hurricane, should they just quietly upgrade you for free tenporarily so that you don’t sink?
    - Declanomous 9y ago
      They should at least place a large warning stating that the data is not safe to use for navigational purposes.
      - ams6110 9y ago
        I'm sort of surprised that data from a source like that is used. Have you ever seen the weather data that airline captains use? It looks like this: KORD 050251Z 26006KT 10SM SCT110 M02/M09 A3019 RMK AO2 SLP232 T10171089 53009 That's the current weather conditions for Chicago O'Hare. Looks like gibberish to you and me but airline captains know what it means and they know how old the observation is. Captain has ultimate authority on the ship, but also ultimate responsibility. It was his job to know what that weather report meant. And surprising to me if he didn't, since by other accounts he was experienced, organized, and safety-conscious.
crooked-v 9y ago
The bit you skipped: > He went down to his stateroom after his conversation with Schultz, and when he returned to the bridge he said, “All right, I just sent up the latest weather. Let us clear everything off the chart table with the exception of the charts.” Schultz opened the B.V.S. program. As it happened, according to the N.T.S.B. report, because of a software glitch, the map that appeared was the very same map that had come in with the previous download, six hours earlier. The raw data on which it was based was at least 12 hours old. It sounds like it wouldn't actually have helped if the captain had the per-hour update, because this undetailed software glitch meant the device wasn't showing the updated maps anyway. The apparent moral of that part of the story is that the B.V.S. charts are past useless and into actively harmful territory, since they may not just be old but instead actively incorrect.
- degenerate 9y ago
  Sounds like the mapping software should put a big red timestamp in the middle of the map if the current data is over 1 hour old. It's unfortunate when programmers overlook something this big.
organman91 9y ago
An aviation accident case study pinpointed a similar issue with in-cockpit weather displays. In this case the delay was less than 10 minutes, but it was enough to be fatal: https://youtu.be/83uvKWJS2os https://youtu.be/83uvKWJS2os
quadyeast 9y ago
Reminded me of this aircraft accident where the time delay of radar satellite datalink weather information was critical. The time delay there is minutes not hours. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83uvKWJS2os https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83uvKWJS2os

r00fus 9y ago

Is that really a UI issue or misrepresented data? If I see a timestamp on rapidly changing data I sure as hell would like to see if there's a delayed effective stamp (most stock market tickers indicate the "effective date" of their data or say clearly there's a XX min delay).

anonoholic 9y ago
> Is that really a UI issue? More of a UX issue. The worst possible kind.

forapurpose 9y ago

Yes, I saw the same thing. Even when I've had people reviewing logs, I make the date prominent and train them to check it first. BVS's data is far more critical. (I learned from a burnt hand: We engaged a non-technical but reliable user to check the daily backup log for errors and report any to us. One day we needed the backup and discovered it hadn't run at all for many weeks. Ouch. I asked the user; she said she indeed checked the logs daily and they were fine. She was right: She was seeing the log from the last backup, unchanged every day. My fault entirely, not hers: We should have anticipated the date problem, and we should have utilized someone technically literate enough to understand what they were reading - in this case, someone who would recognize an 'obvious' problem such as the numbers of files and bytes not changing. And we should have tested our backups more often, but that old lesson almost isn't worth mentioning.)

jacquesm 9y ago
Not that it will comfort you much but you are hardly alone in this. Bad backups, logging on the same servers as where access takes place and single points of failure in personnel are some of the most frequently occurring things I come across in my 'day job'.
- forapurpose 9y ago
  Thanks, and I know it well; that was an early lesson. Backups in particular are an amazing cesspool of problems for something so conceptually simple.
  - jacquesm 9y ago
    That's the thing that always bugs me, the vast majority of the items that I end up with on the todo list after a review would cost $0 or very little to get right. Super frustrating. And you can't even rely on things staying fixed either, you have to review periodically or it will be back to square #1 within the year.
    - forapurpose 9y ago
      > the vast majority of the items that I end up with on the todo list after a review would cost $0 or very little to get right Agreed, and I drive people crazy with my focus on those things. Thorough design and implementation (including testing) up front cost far less than correcting problems later, and they don't add the enormous cost of downtime and other failures. But ... I've found that human beings, even serious professionals, have a capacity limit for details, and it's not very high; and if it's for an over-the-horizon risk, attention is very limited. That is my biggest constraint, editing down the details, organizing them, automating them, and making trade-offs to reduce them to a point where others don't throw up their hands. Also, it's hard to get the budget for that up front investment in what looks to others like obsessiveness (it's not; it's carefully considered ROI). So when you show up for your review (I don't know exactly what you do, but I have an impression), 1,000 details might have been addressed but 50 overlooked. or 1,050 details might have been implemented but there was no capacity for the next 100 - resources ran out, something else came up, etc. So I can see it both ways.

badloginagain 9y ago

Also note that B.V.S did appear to have a 'Hourly Update' feature that did not appear to be subscribed to. It's also important to realize that the captain was confident with the plan- except the storm in question was abnormal. That's an important fact to consider, as it throws the mariners heuristics off deciding how much more attention to pay.

SlowBro 9y ago
> Also note that B.V.S did appear to have a 'Hourly Update' feature that did not appear to be subscribed to. From the article, "The Coast Guard report also noted that “El Faro crew did not take advantage of B.V.S.’s tropical update feature,” which would have provided hourly updates." So hourly updates apparently were available even if not subscribed to.
- floatingatoll 9y ago
  There’s an interesting ethics question here: If your ship’s location places you near a hurricane, should they just quietly upgrade you for free tenporarily so that you don’t sink?
  - Declanomous 9y ago
    They should at least place a large warning stating that the data is not safe to use for navigational purposes.
    - ams6110 9y ago
      I'm sort of surprised that data from a source like that is used. Have you ever seen the weather data that airline captains use? It looks like this: KORD 050251Z 26006KT 10SM SCT110 M02/M09 A3019 RMK AO2 SLP232 T10171089 53009 That's the current weather conditions for Chicago O'Hare. Looks like gibberish to you and me but airline captains know what it means and they know how old the observation is. Captain has ultimate authority on the ship, but also ultimate responsibility. It was his job to know what that weather report meant. And surprising to me if he didn't, since by other accounts he was experienced, organized, and safety-conscious.

crooked-v 9y ago

The bit you skipped: > He went down to his stateroom after his conversation with Schultz, and when he returned to the bridge he said, “All right, I just sent up the latest weather. Let us clear everything off the chart table with the exception of the charts.” Schultz opened the B.V.S. program. As it happened, according to the N.T.S.B. report, because of a software glitch, the map that appeared was the very same map that had come in with the previous download, six hours earlier. The raw data on which it was based was at least 12 hours old. It sounds like it wouldn't actually have helped if the captain had the per-hour update, because this undetailed software glitch meant the device wasn't showing the updated maps anyway. The apparent moral of that part of the story is that the B.V.S. charts are past useless and into actively harmful territory, since they may not just be old but instead actively incorrect.

degenerate 9y ago
Sounds like the mapping software should put a big red timestamp in the middle of the map if the current data is over 1 hour old. It's unfortunate when programmers overlook something this big.

organman91 9y ago

An aviation accident case study pinpointed a similar issue with in-cockpit weather displays. In this case the delay was less than 10 minutes, but it was enough to be fatal: https://youtu.be/83uvKWJS2os https://youtu.be/83uvKWJS2os

quadyeast 9y ago

Reminded me of this aircraft accident where the time delay of radar satellite datalink weather information was critical. The time delay there is minutes not hours. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83uvKWJS2os https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=83uvKWJS2os