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This is what will most likely happen (with respect to production rate): Tesla will continue to draw the ire of the naysayers/shortsellers in the media for the

This is what will most likely happen (with respect to production rate): Tesla will continue to draw the ire of the naysayers/shortsellers in the media for the next year or so. Then, by 2021 or so, we'll look back at a company making over a million electric cars per year at high margin, dwarfing the entire rest of the electric car production rate (with the possible exception of China...). Doesn't mean Tesla will be worth $100s of billions or will solve self-driving or anything like that. But exponential ramp-ups tend to catch people off-guard after hearing small numbers at the beginning of the ramp and early delays.

buvanshak 9y ago
>Then, by 2021 or so, we'll look back at a company making over a million electric cars per year at high margin, dwarfing the entire rest of the electric car production rate.. Wouldn't the other companies ll be able to sell them at even reduced profit/cost and in a larger scale, because they have a large variety of other cars to draw profit from, thus capturing/grabbing the market completely out of Tesla's hands?
- Robotbeat 9y ago
  That is possible! But not likely, as most of the other car manufacturers have slow-rolled EVs until now, preferring press releases to progress, compliance cars to real engineered EVs. In the US, at least, automobile manufacturers have been lobbying against fuel efficiency standards that basically require them to make EVs. And they've succeeded. Car makers talk out of both sides of their mouth on EVs, and their slow-rolled EV deployment shows they really don't believe in it. Tesla still has a strong edge (cemented with the Supercharger network that is still unrivaled by any other network) and is beefing up manufacturing as well, to the point that long-term they may be able to beat the status quo for car manufacturing automation as well. It depends. Are traditional car makers going to continue to lobby against fuel standards instead of actually deploying EVs at scale? If so, Tesla will be fine.
  - buvanshak 9y ago
    > they may be able to beat the status quo for car manufacturing automation as well.. What is the status quo? And What is this idea that they ll be able to beat it, based on?
    - Robotbeat 9y ago
      This video shows about the status quo for current level of automation of car manufacturing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TubOzvqOCmI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TubOzvqOCmI As you can see starting at 12:00 or so, humans are everywhere for wire harness installation and final assembly. Tesla wishes to make wire harnesses drastically simpler for Model Y and wishes to automate final assembly as well. Many industry experts think that automating to that degree is a fool's errand. A lot of the pain Tesla is experiencing in ramping up is by trying to automate things the industry normally doesn't. If they can get through this initial period and make this higher level of automation actually work smoothly, they'll have a significant edge. If.
skgoa 9y ago
> Then, by 2021 or so, we'll look back at a company making over a million electric cars per year at high margin Yeah, sure. Why not say that it is "most likely" that they will have a colony on Mars by that time, too? > dwarfing the entire rest of the electric car production rate (with the possible exception of China...). Even at a million cars per year, Tesla would not dwarf the production of the many other EVs that will come out in the next 3 years. I also don't see what this has to do with Tesla being profitable and surviving as a company. > But exponential ramp-ups tend to catch people off-guard after hearing small numbers at the beginning of the ramp and early delays. However, exponential ramp ups are not typical with a product as complex as a car and Tesla has shown no ability to actually pull it off. Tesla is the least automated mass-producting car manufacturer. Tesla currently requires 35 (yes, thirty-five!) workers per car produced per day. This is ten times of what is normal in the automotive industry. Going by their own numbers, they have shown a sustained output below 800 cars per week, with only managing to produce 2020 briefly in the 7 day period ending on April 2nd. And this is after they installed an entirely new production line and made a company-wide all hands on deck push that is not sustainable. I'm not saying Tesla is going to crash and burn tommorrow. They still have some chance of making it through these hard times, if investors' and creditors' confidence holds up. But just handwaving away the massive headwinds they face isn't sensible, either.
- Robotbeat 9y ago
  > Even at a million cars per year, Tesla would not dwarf the production of the many other EVs that will come out in the next 3 years. Oh, I know BMW and others claim to be moving towards EVs, but the press release vs actual deployment is much worse even than Tesla. Tesla's manufacturing numbers until now were almost all high-end luxury vehicles, so of course they wouldn't equal conventional manufacturers on automation and mass production. Additionally, of course Tesla's worker numbers look worse than a non-vertically-integrated company that just buys parts (of course, those parts also require a whole bunch of workers that aren't counted). Sure, you can think they only can make 800 cars per week, but customers are getting their cars now at a faster rate. I'm merely saying what will most likely happen, not what's PROVEN BEYOND ALL DOUBT.

buvanshak 9y ago

>Then, by 2021 or so, we'll look back at a company making over a million electric cars per year at high margin, dwarfing the entire rest of the electric car production rate.. Wouldn't the other companies ll be able to sell them at even reduced profit/cost and in a larger scale, because they have a large variety of other cars to draw profit from, thus capturing/grabbing the market completely out of Tesla's hands?

Robotbeat 9y ago
That is possible! But not likely, as most of the other car manufacturers have slow-rolled EVs until now, preferring press releases to progress, compliance cars to real engineered EVs. In the US, at least, automobile manufacturers have been lobbying against fuel efficiency standards that basically require them to make EVs. And they've succeeded. Car makers talk out of both sides of their mouth on EVs, and their slow-rolled EV deployment shows they really don't believe in it. Tesla still has a strong edge (cemented with the Supercharger network that is still unrivaled by any other network) and is beefing up manufacturing as well, to the point that long-term they may be able to beat the status quo for car manufacturing automation as well. It depends. Are traditional car makers going to continue to lobby against fuel standards instead of actually deploying EVs at scale? If so, Tesla will be fine.
- buvanshak 9y ago
  > they may be able to beat the status quo for car manufacturing automation as well.. What is the status quo? And What is this idea that they ll be able to beat it, based on?
  - Robotbeat 9y ago
    This video shows about the status quo for current level of automation of car manufacturing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TubOzvqOCmI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TubOzvqOCmI As you can see starting at 12:00 or so, humans are everywhere for wire harness installation and final assembly. Tesla wishes to make wire harnesses drastically simpler for Model Y and wishes to automate final assembly as well. Many industry experts think that automating to that degree is a fool's errand. A lot of the pain Tesla is experiencing in ramping up is by trying to automate things the industry normally doesn't. If they can get through this initial period and make this higher level of automation actually work smoothly, they'll have a significant edge. If.

skgoa 9y ago

> Then, by 2021 or so, we'll look back at a company making over a million electric cars per year at high margin Yeah, sure. Why not say that it is "most likely" that they will have a colony on Mars by that time, too? > dwarfing the entire rest of the electric car production rate (with the possible exception of China...). Even at a million cars per year, Tesla would not dwarf the production of the many other EVs that will come out in the next 3 years. I also don't see what this has to do with Tesla being profitable and surviving as a company. > But exponential ramp-ups tend to catch people off-guard after hearing small numbers at the beginning of the ramp and early delays. However, exponential ramp ups are not typical with a product as complex as a car and Tesla has shown no ability to actually pull it off. Tesla is the least automated mass-producting car manufacturer. Tesla currently requires 35 (yes, thirty-five!) workers per car produced per day. This is ten times of what is normal in the automotive industry. Going by their own numbers, they have shown a sustained output below 800 cars per week, with only managing to produce 2020 briefly in the 7 day period ending on April 2nd. And this is after they installed an entirely new production line and made a company-wide all hands on deck push that is not sustainable. I'm not saying Tesla is going to crash and burn tommorrow. They still have some chance of making it through these hard times, if investors' and creditors' confidence holds up. But just handwaving away the massive headwinds they face isn't sensible, either.

Robotbeat 9y ago
> Even at a million cars per year, Tesla would not dwarf the production of the many other EVs that will come out in the next 3 years. Oh, I know BMW and others claim to be moving towards EVs, but the press release vs actual deployment is much worse even than Tesla. Tesla's manufacturing numbers until now were almost all high-end luxury vehicles, so of course they wouldn't equal conventional manufacturers on automation and mass production. Additionally, of course Tesla's worker numbers look worse than a non-vertically-integrated company that just buys parts (of course, those parts also require a whole bunch of workers that aren't counted). Sure, you can think they only can make 800 cars per week, but customers are getting their cars now at a faster rate. I'm merely saying what will most likely happen, not what's PROVEN BEYOND ALL DOUBT.