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No, Simpson's Paradox involves incorrect conclusions of statistical data/trend due to a mistake in viewpoint or assumption. I'm saying that even if you have th
by fallous 9y ago
No, Simpson's Paradox involves incorrect conclusions of statistical data/trend due to a mistake in viewpoint or assumption. I'm saying that even if you have the correct conclusion that it's not a valid replacement for the user's explicit intent or choice because a) the probability on which a prediction, even a ludicrously accurate one, depends makes no guarantee about the results of a single event... and b) that usurping the user's choice because your model, or you, think you know better is a stunningly bad idea in itself.
- Jedd 9y ago> No, Simpson's Paradox involves incorrect conclusions of statistical data/trend due to a mistake in viewpoint or assumption. Not correct. There's no 'mistake in viewpoint or assumption' involved in Simpson's Paradox. Your example story was of someone committing 'a sequence of good deeds throughout the year' that may be part of a grander, longer plan to commit a profoundly not good deed. Analysis of month by month, grouped or in isolation, would reveal an apparent trend that would be opposite to the evident overall trend once you include the ultimate, negative act. From the wikipedia link I provided earlier: "Simpson's paradox ... is a phenomenon in probability and statistics, in which a trend appears in several different groups of data but disappears or reverses when these groups are combined."