3 ms·
Yet another article which attempts to use Millennials as a homogeneous cohort to paint some broad-strokes policy questions to ponder. In fact, the generational
by niftich 9y ago
Yet another article which attempts to use Millennials as a homogeneous cohort to paint some broad-strokes policy questions to ponder. In fact, the generational cohorts are significantly less relevant than income [1] in correlating with where and how Americans live and work. Urban revival is driven by high-earning, middle-aged adults, working in downtown jobs that have seen the highest percentages of wage growth. But most population growth and job growth happens in the suburbs, where people with lower incomes fall, Millennial or otherwise.
The much talked-about phenomenon of urban cores gaining jobs faster than their suburbs was confined to certain cities [2], and was entirely untrue in others. In the general case, suburbs have consistently posted higher rates of employment growth [3][4], and command a higher absolute number of jobs. In fact, some of the highest growth areas are metropolitan areas that hardly even have an urban core that stands apart from its suburbs [5].
Suburbs everywhere are living on borrowed time, because as their infrastructure ages, they will develop the same problems circling back to lack of funding as the big cities that gave rise to them in the first place, but without the political and business clout that big cities mustered up to retain their relevance. As the infrastructure ages, the taxes will rise, discretionary funding on quality-of-live services like schools will be reduced, and the most wealthy will begin to move out into a new ring of exurbs (or edge cities), or back to the urban core, leaving progressively poorer people to remain and take their place.
Only suburbs which can successfully pivot to being employment centers can avoid this painful demographic crunch.
[1] http://jedkolko.com/2016/03/30/urban-revival-not-for-most-americans/ http://jedkolko.com/2016/03/30/urban-revival-not-for-most-am...
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/24/upshot/more-new-jobs-are-in-city-centers-while-employment-growth-shrinks-in-the-suburbs.html https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/24/upshot/more-new-jobs-are-...
[3] https://www.brookings.edu/research/where-are-the-jobs-cities-suburbs-and-the-competition-for-employment/ https://www.brookings.edu/research/where-are-the-jobs-cities... [4] http://www.newgeography.com/content/005264-suburbs-continue-dominate-jobs-and-job-growth http://www.newgeography.com/content/005264-suburbs-continue-... [5] http://blog.indeed.com/2017/03/08/bounceback-for-job-and-wage-growth/ http://blog.indeed.com/2017/03/08/bounceback-for-job-and-wag...