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CNN this morning: "Tesla will soon report whether it met its target to make 2,500 Model 3s a week. It is on pace to make about half that number, according to Bl

by davedx 9y ago

CNN this morning: "Tesla will soon report whether it met its target to make 2,500 Model 3s a week. It is on pace to make about half that number, according to Bloomberg." [1] From the statement: "In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles." A pretty big improvement, still some hard work to do, but they really are ramping up. I'm relieved at the announcement they won't need another debt/equity raise this year. Let's see where we are in 3 months. [1] http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/02/news/companies/tesla-stock-april/index.html http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/02/news/companies/tesla-stock-a...

agumonkey 9y ago
Depends on what made these numbers. Late night burn or proper automation ?
- Someone1234 9y ago
  Indeed. They say last week and next week will be ballpark 2K Model 3s, and that's good, but is that their new sustainable number or just an artificially inflated figure for this report? Their carefully chosen wording leans me more towards the latter. But I hope they succeed in general and I guess we'll know one way or the other by next quarter.
  - InTheArena 9y ago
    After they did their big push end of last year, they immediately down-ramped, and caught a lot of flack (rightfully so) for it. I assume this is their way of saying, we have a sustainable rate here. That said, the VIN numbers are rolling off at a massive rate. It's pretty easy to see if Tesla does that again.
- Robotbeat 9y ago
  They won't reach proper automation until they're getting 5,000 to 8,000 Model 3s per week. But, of course, nobody really does automation to the level that Tesla is trying to do, so their current mix between labor and automation (as they continue to build up their automation line) is approximately what other car makers do. Getting full automation to work is really hard, takes a lot of labor and time. I think they'll do it, but the task should not be under-estimated. In the meantime, they've already achieved a production rate per factory line similar to what a typical automaker like VW would do (on the order of 100,000 per year for a factory). Like SpaceX around 2015 or so. Respectable, but not yet Earth-shattering (i.e. 2017).
  - agumonkey 9y ago
    I wonder how much Tesla lives on SpaceX atmospheric results... Musk probably knows a thing or two about technical limits since that, although people say that SpaceX needs are more high grade craft than large scale throughput but he might believe that this is peanuts. I wonder how many lines run in parallel. thousands of cars per week is a few minute per car. That's not much :) Someone please slip a drone inside.
  - vasco 9y ago
    > nobody really does automation to the level that Tesla is trying to do Have you ever looked at production line videos from Mercedes Benz on youtube? You'll see that what Tesla wants to do is actually already being done, only with dead-tree engines instead.
    - Robotbeat 9y ago
      Tesla wishes to do full automation of basically everything, even final assembly. According to this recent Bernstein report (by a Tesla critic), this hasn't ever been successfully done before: https://twitter.com/valleyhack/status/979434674144423936 https://twitter.com/valleyhack/status/979434674144423936 The point of the report is that Tesla is trying to automate too much, beyond what everyone else does today and where others have tried and failed spectacularly. The report uses that history as proof it cannot be done and therefore Tesla will fail. Are you disputing that by saying Benz does full automation of even final assembly?
      - agumonkey 9y ago
        bmw x2 is impressively devoid of humans https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TubOzvqOCmI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TubOzvqOCmI if you look closely in the background at 10:14 you can catch a wild homo sapiens wandering between an army of robocop arm prototypes
        Robotbeat 9y ago
        Your video makes my point very nicely. From 12:00 onward, though, humans are used for many tasks, including multiple assembly steps and especially final assembly. These are things that Tesla wishes to fully automate and which industry experts think they're crazy for trying. And honestly, looking at that video (especially the wire harness installation at 17:00), it sure looks like an incredibly hard problem to solve and the industry experts certainly have a good point.
jacquesm 9y ago
What matters is not how many they made, what matters is if they cut corners just to boost that number. Ideally those would be better quality cars but it looks very much like they were doing everything they could to just increase that one number without qualifying it in any way.
- john_minsk 9y ago
  How do you know that?

by davedx 9y ago

agumonkey 9y ago

Depends on what made these numbers. Late night burn or proper automation ?

Someone1234 9y ago
Indeed. They say last week and next week will be ballpark 2K Model 3s, and that's good, but is that their new sustainable number or just an artificially inflated figure for this report? Their carefully chosen wording leans me more towards the latter. But I hope they succeed in general and I guess we'll know one way or the other by next quarter.
- InTheArena 9y ago
  After they did their big push end of last year, they immediately down-ramped, and caught a lot of flack (rightfully so) for it. I assume this is their way of saying, we have a sustainable rate here. That said, the VIN numbers are rolling off at a massive rate. It's pretty easy to see if Tesla does that again.
Robotbeat 9y ago
They won't reach proper automation until they're getting 5,000 to 8,000 Model 3s per week. But, of course, nobody really does automation to the level that Tesla is trying to do, so their current mix between labor and automation (as they continue to build up their automation line) is approximately what other car makers do. Getting full automation to work is really hard, takes a lot of labor and time. I think they'll do it, but the task should not be under-estimated. In the meantime, they've already achieved a production rate per factory line similar to what a typical automaker like VW would do (on the order of 100,000 per year for a factory). Like SpaceX around 2015 or so. Respectable, but not yet Earth-shattering (i.e. 2017).
- agumonkey 9y ago
  I wonder how much Tesla lives on SpaceX atmospheric results... Musk probably knows a thing or two about technical limits since that, although people say that SpaceX needs are more high grade craft than large scale throughput but he might believe that this is peanuts. I wonder how many lines run in parallel. thousands of cars per week is a few minute per car. That's not much :) Someone please slip a drone inside.
- vasco 9y ago
  > nobody really does automation to the level that Tesla is trying to do Have you ever looked at production line videos from Mercedes Benz on youtube? You'll see that what Tesla wants to do is actually already being done, only with dead-tree engines instead.
  - Robotbeat 9y ago
    Tesla wishes to do full automation of basically everything, even final assembly. According to this recent Bernstein report (by a Tesla critic), this hasn't ever been successfully done before: https://twitter.com/valleyhack/status/979434674144423936 https://twitter.com/valleyhack/status/979434674144423936 The point of the report is that Tesla is trying to automate too much, beyond what everyone else does today and where others have tried and failed spectacularly. The report uses that history as proof it cannot be done and therefore Tesla will fail. Are you disputing that by saying Benz does full automation of even final assembly?
    - agumonkey 9y ago
      bmw x2 is impressively devoid of humans https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TubOzvqOCmI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TubOzvqOCmI if you look closely in the background at 10:14 you can catch a wild homo sapiens wandering between an army of robocop arm prototypes
      - Robotbeat 9y ago
        Your video makes my point very nicely. From 12:00 onward, though, humans are used for many tasks, including multiple assembly steps and especially final assembly. These are things that Tesla wishes to fully automate and which industry experts think they're crazy for trying. And honestly, looking at that video (especially the wire harness installation at 17:00), it sure looks like an incredibly hard problem to solve and the industry experts certainly have a good point.

jacquesm 9y ago

What matters is not how many they made, what matters is if they cut corners just to boost that number. Ideally those would be better quality cars but it looks very much like they were doing everything they could to just increase that one number without qualifying it in any way.

john_minsk 9y ago
How do you know that?