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The part you omitted is how the long-term outlook currently priced into a lot of tech stocks (including AMZN) is far too optimistic and not accurately discounte
by sp527 9y ago
The part you omitted is how the long-term outlook currently priced into a lot of tech stocks (including AMZN) is far too optimistic and not accurately discounted relative to likelihood. Current prices aren't a function of rigorous analysis so much as pie-in-the-sky projections and too much capital floating around.
- alehul 9y agoThe efficient-market hypothesis basically asserts that if a price weren't a function of rigorous analysis, then there would be a sizable incentive to find and correctly analyze this stock, and trade appropriately to take advantage of the inefficiency until it no longer exists. There could possibly be a more optimistic pricing in the markets if we factored in, just as a random example, that people are more timid to short rather than buy, as a short can easily result in a loss higher than the entire value of the position. An interesting read if you'd like to go down the rabbit-hole of that ideology would be anything on the concept of 'Adaptive Markets' by Andrew Lo. Rather than the common physics/maths-based approach to market behavior, it focuses on a more biological one, and thus includes these 'emotional inefficiencies' that may be present in market pricing.