5 ms·

Let's see how many people sell low. Just hit support on various indexes today. Short-term bottom is in, already today, or tomorrow on marginal new lows. Sign

Let's see how many people sell low. Just hit support on various indexes today. Short-term bottom is in, already today, or tomorrow on marginal new lows. Signed, 15 years futures experience

celticninja 9y ago
Can you explain what you mean? I'm reading it that you think this is as low as it is going for the moment, but could easily be wrong.
- contrarianguy 9y ago
  > explain Just chart voodoo. Nothing much to see; it's an artform and every TA "expert" is an artist. > could easily be wrong You've summarized what it means to be a successful trader very succinctly. No trade idea is guaranteed.
  - tehlike 9y ago
    This message and previous one seem to be contradicting. You are making a prediction, admitting that you can be very wrong. Did i get this right? Or was your prediction a sarcasm?
    - tejohnso 9y ago
      He started by saying "Let's see how..." That doesn't sound like a prediction to me.
      - tehlike 9y ago
        "Short-term bottom is in, already today, or tomorrow on marginal new lows." That was the prediction part, but his "sign: 15 years futures experience" kind of sounds like it's sarcasm.
        contrarianguy 9y ago
        Just a humble suggestion, hope this doesn't come across in the wrong way: It's rude to use 3rd person in someone's presence. Any "prediction" is worth zero unless you're an insider on a rigged market. Hence, any "prediction" can be wrong. So anyone saying that "The market will definitely do X" is wrong. Accordingly, I did phrase the original comment incorrectly by not putting the usual disclaimers in. But these follow-up comments should clarify. No sarcasm was intended. Yes, I've traded futures for about that long and studied trends extensively.
        tehlike 9y ago
        Definitely did not come as wrong way, but instead of saying he/she/they, what would be better? Should i have said your name instead?
        contrarianguy 9y ago
        I may be wrong in the context of polite message board conversation, but in a group setting one wouldn't use a pronoun; instead the better approach is to stick to their first name. Or "op" for original poster, or "contrarianguy", or "thread parent".. sorry i'm at a loss for proper etiquette. Maybe I'm wrong, sorry, maybe 3rd person okay here.
      - contrarianguy 9y ago
        Just wanted to point out (just trying to help): Referring to someone, while in their presence, in the 3rd person is rude. The "let's see how many" part follows from my throw-away handle name, which is indicative of my general strategy (a contrarian strategy seeks reversal opportunities at sentiment extremes) relative to the sentiment of the comments in this thread along with the title of the post, coupled with what was a long signal for my system. I did fail to put in the disclaimers and did not intend to imply that my idea of going long came with any guarantee. This long does not come with any guarantee of working, nor do any of my trade ideas. But I do have significant experience with trading futures and with studying trends. Just posted hastily, sorry about that.
    - contrarianguy 9y ago
      Any prediction about the future direction of the market can be wrong, unless you are an insider on a rigged market, which I am not. I predict that the market will go up from here. The idea looks okay. But it could be proven wrong. So we use stop losses, without exception. This is the mantra of someone who runs a successful trading strategy. No sarcasm; I forgot to put in the disclaimer in the original comment, and didn't want to edit it after the fact. These follow-ups hopefully offer sufficient clarification.
- yborg 9y ago
  It's refreshing reading a comment from one of the 5% on HN that doesn't believe themselves to be smarter than the market. However, listening to a technical analyst is going to be about as useful to you in figuring out where the market is going as listening to an astrologer. There are a lot of parallels between the two disciplines, actually.
  - contrarianguy 9y ago
    Yes, you're right, TA is useless, unless you have astrological powers. Nothing to see here.

Let's see how many people sell low. Just hit support on various indexes today. Short-term bottom is in, already today, or tomorrow on marginal new lows. Signed, 15 years futures experience

celticninja 9y ago

Can you explain what you mean? I'm reading it that you think this is as low as it is going for the moment, but could easily be wrong.

contrarianguy 9y ago
> explain Just chart voodoo. Nothing much to see; it's an artform and every TA "expert" is an artist. > could easily be wrong You've summarized what it means to be a successful trader very succinctly. No trade idea is guaranteed.
- tehlike 9y ago
  This message and previous one seem to be contradicting. You are making a prediction, admitting that you can be very wrong. Did i get this right? Or was your prediction a sarcasm?
  - tejohnso 9y ago
    He started by saying "Let's see how..." That doesn't sound like a prediction to me.
    - tehlike 9y ago
      "Short-term bottom is in, already today, or tomorrow on marginal new lows." That was the prediction part, but his "sign: 15 years futures experience" kind of sounds like it's sarcasm.
      - contrarianguy 9y ago
        Just a humble suggestion, hope this doesn't come across in the wrong way: It's rude to use 3rd person in someone's presence. Any "prediction" is worth zero unless you're an insider on a rigged market. Hence, any "prediction" can be wrong. So anyone saying that "The market will definitely do X" is wrong. Accordingly, I did phrase the original comment incorrectly by not putting the usual disclaimers in. But these follow-up comments should clarify. No sarcasm was intended. Yes, I've traded futures for about that long and studied trends extensively.
        tehlike 9y ago
        Definitely did not come as wrong way, but instead of saying he/she/they, what would be better? Should i have said your name instead?
        contrarianguy 9y ago
        I may be wrong in the context of polite message board conversation, but in a group setting one wouldn't use a pronoun; instead the better approach is to stick to their first name. Or "op" for original poster, or "contrarianguy", or "thread parent".. sorry i'm at a loss for proper etiquette. Maybe I'm wrong, sorry, maybe 3rd person okay here.
    - contrarianguy 9y ago
      Just wanted to point out (just trying to help): Referring to someone, while in their presence, in the 3rd person is rude. The "let's see how many" part follows from my throw-away handle name, which is indicative of my general strategy (a contrarian strategy seeks reversal opportunities at sentiment extremes) relative to the sentiment of the comments in this thread along with the title of the post, coupled with what was a long signal for my system. I did fail to put in the disclaimers and did not intend to imply that my idea of going long came with any guarantee. This long does not come with any guarantee of working, nor do any of my trade ideas. But I do have significant experience with trading futures and with studying trends. Just posted hastily, sorry about that.
  - contrarianguy 9y ago
    Any prediction about the future direction of the market can be wrong, unless you are an insider on a rigged market, which I am not. I predict that the market will go up from here. The idea looks okay. But it could be proven wrong. So we use stop losses, without exception. This is the mantra of someone who runs a successful trading strategy. No sarcasm; I forgot to put in the disclaimer in the original comment, and didn't want to edit it after the fact. These follow-ups hopefully offer sufficient clarification.
yborg 9y ago
It's refreshing reading a comment from one of the 5% on HN that doesn't believe themselves to be smarter than the market. However, listening to a technical analyst is going to be about as useful to you in figuring out where the market is going as listening to an astrologer. There are a lot of parallels between the two disciplines, actually.
- contrarianguy 9y ago
  Yes, you're right, TA is useless, unless you have astrological powers. Nothing to see here.