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>The 2017 Monitoring the Future survey on adolescent drug use found that 11 percent of 12th graders, 8.5 percent of 10th graders and 3.5 percent of 8th graders

>The 2017 Monitoring the Future survey on adolescent drug use found that 11 percent of 12th graders, 8.5 percent of 10th graders and 3.5 percent of 8th graders had vaped nicotine in the previous 30 days. Of those high school seniors, 24 percent reported vaping daily, which the study defined as vaping on 20 or more occasions in the previous 30 days I'm sorry, but is <10% of high schoolers an "explosion"? Obviously e-cigarettes are more appealing than tobacco products, but regular cigarette use was 15.8% in 2011 [1]. Marijuana use is at close to 6%, so not that big a gap from the apparent "explosion" of kids vaping. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/youth_data/tobacco_use/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/yout...

extrememacaroni 9y ago
Explosion refers to the increase rate in those percentages, not to the percentages themselves. Example: expecting in a relatively short amount of time, say, 0.1% and getting 4% qualifies as explosion to me.
- TheBeardKing 9y ago
  Obviously the rate increased, it's a fairly new device. Nintendo Switch must've went nuclear. Pokemon Go caused utter annihiliation.
  - frgtpsswrdlame 9y ago
    The rate of tobacco consumption overall is what's important. So we would do a comparison like high school upperclassmen who smoke cigarettes in 2010 (or maybe even a bit earlier) to high school upperclassmen who smoke cigarettes and/or vape in 2018. The difference would tell us what we want to know.
  - dajohnson89 9y ago
    switch and Pokemon can't be smoked inside a school
    - ggggtez 9y ago
      This comment doesn't add anything to the conversation. Besides, obviously you can smoke pokemon in a school: https://redeyesonline.net/pokemon-bong/ https://redeyesonline.net/pokemon-bong/
  - wyldfire 9y ago
    It's a public health concern, so it's prudent to sample how much it's consumed. > Obviously the rate increased, it's a fairly new device. It's not necessarily so that "new device" therefore "rate increase." It could be flat or declining since earlier surveys. The fact that it isn't flat means that it's popular and likely warrants further study and/or intervention. The descriptor "explosive" applies here because many other similar public-health-impacting behaviors which are studied by similar researchers change much more slowly over time.
- vkou 9y ago
  Yes, but what if it correlates with a decrease in cigarette smoking from 15% to 11%? Sure, there's been an explosion in vaping, but no change to overall nicotine consumption.
Anon1096 9y ago
Just above that in the article it states that 45 percent of the students at the Boulder school admitted to vaping. So yes, I would consider that an explosion.
steve_musk 9y ago
Maybe it is region dependent? I have some younger relatives and high school/middle school and they make it seem like almost every at their school is vaping (mostly the new juul things)
- MaxLeiter 9y ago
  Juuls are incredibly common in a lot of schools. At my school, the number of high schoolers that use a juul more than once a week is at least 20%. (Small school)
cbhl 9y ago
Yes. That means that in a school of of 360 kids (30 students * 3 classes * 4 grades), ~36 of them are now nicotine users through vaping. You may as well dedicate an entire classroom to holding detention. The US was slowly reducing the number of middle schoolers who smoke cigarettes. According to the CDC, cigarette use dropped from 4.3% in 2011 to 2.2% in 2016. [1] This would be a 5x reversal in less than a year. That's huge. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/youth_data/tobacco_use/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/yout...
- lern_too_spel 9y ago
  You're both citing the same source, but you're comparing 12th grade usage to middle school usage.
  - cbhl 9y ago
    Ah, whelp. I forgot that high school is 9th-12th grade. Re-reading the high school numbers cigarettes are down 15.8% -> 8.0% (2011-2016) but eCigs are up 1.5% -> 11.3% (2011-2016). The gains in eCig usage still appear to cancel out the reduction in cigarette usage ("(20.2%) reported current use of some type of tobacco product"). But definitely a less dramatic effect than I originally claimed.
    - TeMPOraL 9y ago
      > The gains in eCig usage still appear to cancel out the reduction in cigarette usage And that's still a significant net victory, given that eCigs don't have the awful health consequences regular cigarettes have.
- ghayes 9y ago
  Couldn't this be explained by a substitution effect? The numbers from the CDC article discuss only the changes from the period starting in 2011 until 2016; where do you justify "a 5x reversal in less than a year?"
- jacobolus 9y ago
394852034 9y ago
I also don't trust these types of "surveys" that are usually based on sample sizes and extrapolation models that are unsuitable at best. This vaping thing is a phenomenon that is somewhat localized and clustered with a significant "explosive" spread vector. It's kind of like any infectious spread pattern or addiction/drug abuse spread pattern. You will see far higher rates in schools where it has taken hold, e.g., in FL and CA, especially in urban areas. This is a "technology" that is very much like any other drug ... which it actually is ... that makes people physiologically addicted and dependent, only it's maybe even worse than, e.g., heroin, because it has a "cool factor" or "innocent" nature because "it's just water vapor" and "it's just glycol" that heroin really doesn't benefit from. What's the harm, right? It's cool' it's technology, it's "Science" (with a capital S for the cult proto-religious nature of the current Science cult). Best thing, we have absolutely zero understanding of its effects in the long run, let alone the fact that it creates psychological patterns of dependence and habits of self-abuse and compulsive self-harm. In many ways anyone who is dependent on any drug, whether legal or illegal, be it nicotine, THC, heroin, Xanax, or Prozac should be declared mentally unfit and have their privileges curtailed.
gowld 9y ago
> 8.0% reported in 2016 that they smoked cigarettes in the past 30 days—a decrease from 15.8% in 2011. The CDC report doesn't report clearly on the overlap between modalities, but if e-cigarette uptake is cancelling all the reductions in non-e-cigarettes, it's quite alarming that nicotine consumption isn't being reduced as previously though.

extrememacaroni 9y ago

Explosion refers to the increase rate in those percentages, not to the percentages themselves. Example: expecting in a relatively short amount of time, say, 0.1% and getting 4% qualifies as explosion to me.

TheBeardKing 9y ago
Obviously the rate increased, it's a fairly new device. Nintendo Switch must've went nuclear. Pokemon Go caused utter annihiliation.
- frgtpsswrdlame 9y ago
  The rate of tobacco consumption overall is what's important. So we would do a comparison like high school upperclassmen who smoke cigarettes in 2010 (or maybe even a bit earlier) to high school upperclassmen who smoke cigarettes and/or vape in 2018. The difference would tell us what we want to know.
- dajohnson89 9y ago
  switch and Pokemon can't be smoked inside a school
  - ggggtez 9y ago
    This comment doesn't add anything to the conversation. Besides, obviously you can smoke pokemon in a school: https://redeyesonline.net/pokemon-bong/ https://redeyesonline.net/pokemon-bong/
- wyldfire 9y ago
  It's a public health concern, so it's prudent to sample how much it's consumed. > Obviously the rate increased, it's a fairly new device. It's not necessarily so that "new device" therefore "rate increase." It could be flat or declining since earlier surveys. The fact that it isn't flat means that it's popular and likely warrants further study and/or intervention. The descriptor "explosive" applies here because many other similar public-health-impacting behaviors which are studied by similar researchers change much more slowly over time.
vkou 9y ago
Yes, but what if it correlates with a decrease in cigarette smoking from 15% to 11%? Sure, there's been an explosion in vaping, but no change to overall nicotine consumption.

Anon1096 9y ago

Just above that in the article it states that 45 percent of the students at the Boulder school admitted to vaping. So yes, I would consider that an explosion.

steve_musk 9y ago

Maybe it is region dependent? I have some younger relatives and high school/middle school and they make it seem like almost every at their school is vaping (mostly the new juul things)

MaxLeiter 9y ago
Juuls are incredibly common in a lot of schools. At my school, the number of high schoolers that use a juul more than once a week is at least 20%. (Small school)

cbhl 9y ago

Yes. That means that in a school of of 360 kids (30 students * 3 classes * 4 grades), ~36 of them are now nicotine users through vaping. You may as well dedicate an entire classroom to holding detention. The US was slowly reducing the number of middle schoolers who smoke cigarettes. According to the CDC, cigarette use dropped from 4.3% in 2011 to 2.2% in 2016. [1] This would be a 5x reversal in less than a year. That's huge. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/youth_data/tobacco_use/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/yout...

lern_too_spel 9y ago
You're both citing the same source, but you're comparing 12th grade usage to middle school usage.
- cbhl 9y ago
  Ah, whelp. I forgot that high school is 9th-12th grade. Re-reading the high school numbers cigarettes are down 15.8% -> 8.0% (2011-2016) but eCigs are up 1.5% -> 11.3% (2011-2016). The gains in eCig usage still appear to cancel out the reduction in cigarette usage ("(20.2%) reported current use of some type of tobacco product"). But definitely a less dramatic effect than I originally claimed.
  - TeMPOraL 9y ago
    > The gains in eCig usage still appear to cancel out the reduction in cigarette usage And that's still a significant net victory, given that eCigs don't have the awful health consequences regular cigarettes have.
ghayes 9y ago
Couldn't this be explained by a substitution effect? The numbers from the CDC article discuss only the changes from the period starting in 2011 until 2016; where do you justify "a 5x reversal in less than a year?"
jacobolus 9y ago

394852034 9y ago

I also don't trust these types of "surveys" that are usually based on sample sizes and extrapolation models that are unsuitable at best. This vaping thing is a phenomenon that is somewhat localized and clustered with a significant "explosive" spread vector. It's kind of like any infectious spread pattern or addiction/drug abuse spread pattern. You will see far higher rates in schools where it has taken hold, e.g., in FL and CA, especially in urban areas. This is a "technology" that is very much like any other drug ... which it actually is ... that makes people physiologically addicted and dependent, only it's maybe even worse than, e.g., heroin, because it has a "cool factor" or "innocent" nature because "it's just water vapor" and "it's just glycol" that heroin really doesn't benefit from. What's the harm, right? It's cool' it's technology, it's "Science" (with a capital S for the cult proto-religious nature of the current Science cult). Best thing, we have absolutely zero understanding of its effects in the long run, let alone the fact that it creates psychological patterns of dependence and habits of self-abuse and compulsive self-harm. In many ways anyone who is dependent on any drug, whether legal or illegal, be it nicotine, THC, heroin, Xanax, or Prozac should be declared mentally unfit and have their privileges curtailed.

gowld 9y ago

> 8.0% reported in 2016 that they smoked cigarettes in the past 30 days—a decrease from 15.8% in 2011. The CDC report doesn't report clearly on the overlap between modalities, but if e-cigarette uptake is cancelling all the reductions in non-e-cigarettes, it's quite alarming that nicotine consumption isn't being reduced as previously though.