3 ms·

I think that's the mistake Ballmer made with Windows Phone. He and the other leadership saw the rise of the smartphone and thought "that's the future". The real

by 013a 9y ago

I think that's the mistake Ballmer made with Windows Phone. He and the other leadership saw the rise of the smartphone and thought "that's the future". The reality is more nuanced; the smartphone created a new market, but it definitely hasn't supplanted the existing "home computer" market, or even really hurt it in any way. Microsoft should have recognized that, recognized they were late to the party, just let Google & Apple have it, and instead focus on integrating with their products and doubling down on the "home & professional computer" segment they already lead in. But they were late to that as well because of Ballmer's mistake, which gave Apple the in to position the iPad as an up-and-coming product in this segment.

shinratdr 9y ago
> The reality is more nuanced; the smartphone created a new market, but it definitely hasn't supplanted the existing "home computer" market, or even really hurt it in any way. This is demonstrably wrong. The home computer market isn't even a market that exists in many parts of the world. To see that phones can supplant the home computer market almost entirely in Africa and India and say it has no effect here is crazy. You can already watch it happen. Will people need a computer to do long form typing? Maybe, although for many a tablet with a Bluetooth keyboard will suffice. Will an average family of 4-5 need more than one though? Will many people just get by sharing a laptop one family member got from work, or an old clunker they use just to edit essays for school? Absolutely. Will smartphones and tablets kill home computers? No, not for a long time. Will they pretty much cap any growth in that market, and turn them into trucks when they were formerly cars? Without a doubt.
- jake_the_third 9y ago
  > The home computer market isn't even a market that exists in many parts of the world. That doesn't make GP's statement demonstrably wrong. The home computer market isn't a market that exists in many parts of the world because it never existed there in the first place. The smart device market may have affected the growth of the home computer market, but I also believe that it hasn't supplanted its existing users by any meaningful measure. At least, not yet.

by 013a 9y ago

shinratdr 9y ago

> The reality is more nuanced; the smartphone created a new market, but it definitely hasn't supplanted the existing "home computer" market, or even really hurt it in any way. This is demonstrably wrong. The home computer market isn't even a market that exists in many parts of the world. To see that phones can supplant the home computer market almost entirely in Africa and India and say it has no effect here is crazy. You can already watch it happen. Will people need a computer to do long form typing? Maybe, although for many a tablet with a Bluetooth keyboard will suffice. Will an average family of 4-5 need more than one though? Will many people just get by sharing a laptop one family member got from work, or an old clunker they use just to edit essays for school? Absolutely. Will smartphones and tablets kill home computers? No, not for a long time. Will they pretty much cap any growth in that market, and turn them into trucks when they were formerly cars? Without a doubt.

jake_the_third 9y ago
> The home computer market isn't even a market that exists in many parts of the world. That doesn't make GP's statement demonstrably wrong. The home computer market isn't a market that exists in many parts of the world because it never existed there in the first place. The smart device market may have affected the growth of the home computer market, but I also believe that it hasn't supplanted its existing users by any meaningful measure. At least, not yet.