9 ms·
> Amazon and Google A couple of weeks ago, your list would have included Facebook. The future is a lot less deterministic than you think.
by mseebach 9y ago
> Amazon and Google
A couple of weeks ago, your list would have included Facebook. The future is a lot less deterministic than you think.
- castis 9y agoYes, but does this make OPs forecast any less possible?
- mseebach 9y agoThe OPs forecast is predicated on an understanding of companies like Google and Amazon being so big and powerful that they are immune to the ebb and flow that define normal market conditions and allow new entrants to prosper and old companies to whither when they no longer create enough value for consumers. My argument is that when Facebook, a company until a few weeks ago commonly understood to be every bit as immortal as Google and Amazon, can be so deeply upset by a scandal that isn't even predominantly their own making (I don't mean to imply that FB isn't culpable, but CA did the bad stuff and explicitly and broadly broke terms in doing so), this immortality is a lot shallower than it seems. Facebook isn't dead, and won't be for a long time, but the idea that Facebook moving into Airbnb's space will immediately monopolise it for the detriment of consumers seems rather more of a silly fantasy than a "forecast".
- deleted 9y ago[deleted]
- justicezyx 9y agoNo it doesn't. It merely points out that the possibility is very low in the absolute sense.
- kakarot 9y agoThe future is a lot less deterministic than you think. Unless our current understanding of physics is completely wrong, the future is entirely deterministic. I think you mean to use the word predictable, which insinuates that we don't have enough information to accurately model the future.
- CPLX 9y agoI believe Mr. Heisenberg would like to have a word with you.
- ubernostrum 9y agoMr. Heisenberg would like to have a word with you about classical versus quantum phenomena.
- kakarot 9y agoWe don't use quantum physics to measure significant amounts of time, we use classical physics. In addition to the uncertainty we encounter at that scale, the arrow of time is often irrelevant anyway.
- matthewmacleod 9y agoYou seem certain of that, but I don't think it's been quite that clear for some time. I'm not a physicist, but AFAIK the Copenhagen interpretation essentially requires indeterminacy. Suffice it to say that I don't think it's as clear-cut as you do :)
- kakarot 9y agoQuantum mechanics has no bearing on the macro scale that classical physics inhabit in our current models. We currently have not synthesized the two models into a singular theory. Classical physics is deterministic. I thought this was common knowledge...
- TheCoelacanth 9y agoThe whole point of quantum mechanics is that classical physics doesn't fully describe the world. Obviously phenomena that require quantum mechanics to describe them are rarely observable at the macro level, but it's clearly not the case that they are never observable because otherwise we wouldn't have been able to make the observations that led to the idea of quantum mechanics. It seems readily apparent that the future is not predictable solely using classical physics, because the development of the theory of quantum mechanics is something that happened and it could not have been predicted solely based on classical physics.
- kadenshep 9y agoAmazon and Google are engaging in concrete industries. Google is still the largest advertising company in the world, facebook is not. Facebook has been and will be second fiddle to Google in the ad industry. "His" list wouldn't have included Facebook because they haven't really dominated anything, let alone stretched their arms out into other fields. Facebook can only hold the dimmest of candles up to Google and Amazon. There are giants, then there are titans.