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But US unemployment is at historic lows [1], and US manufacturing output is at historic highs, so why now? It's also notable that tariffs are one of the few pol

by evanpw 9y ago

But US unemployment is at historic lows [1], and US manufacturing output is at historic highs, so why now? It's also notable that tariffs are one of the few policies that economists are almost in universal agreement about [3]. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS [3] http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/steel-and-aluminum-tariffs http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/steel-and-aluminum-tariffs

Consultant32452 9y ago
>But US unemployment is at historic lows Meanwhile the wealth gap is at historic highs. Increasing demand when supply is already low should bring up wages. >It's also notable that tariffs are one of the few policies that economists are almost in universal agreement about [3]. Tariffs will not generally improve the welfare of Americans, removing the tariffs after our global competitors have ceased their own unfair trade practices, improved worker conditions, stop polluting so much, etc. may improve the welfare of everyone.
- evanpw 9y ago
  > Meanwhile the wealth gap is at historic highs. Increasing demand when supply is already low should bring up wages. Tariffs are an extremely inefficient form of redistribution. If you want to fix the wealth gap, just make the pie as large as possible and redistribute directly. > Tariffs will not generally improve the welfare of Americans, removing the tariffs after our global competitors have ceased their own unfair trade practices, improved worker conditions, stop polluting so much, etc. may improve the welfare of everyone. I'm not sure what to make of this. It sounds like the plan is to make ourselves worse off in the hope that it also damages China? Most of the difference in labor practices comes from the fact that the US is much richer than China. It's unlikely that we can convince China to stop being poor by taxing ourselves.
  - Consultant32452 9y ago
    >Tariffs are an extremely inefficient form of redistribution. If you want to fix the wealth gap, just make the pie as large as possible and redistribute directly. It's hard to make the pie as large as possible when your second largest trade partner isn't playing fair. >I'm not sure what to make of this. It sounds like the plan is to make ourselves worse off in the hope that it also damages China? Most of the difference in labor practices comes from the fact that the US is much richer than China. It's unlikely that we can convince China to stop being poor by taxing ourselves. China has weird rules that restrict foreign companies from doing business there, which is a defacto tariff on all US corporations who want to sell to China. There's a lot of other industry-specific ways in which China is not playing fair. Of course American corporations want to manufacture in China to avoid paying for an American standard of living. And I get that poor countries are going to have lower wages. But these people are working in factories where suicide nets are necessary. We can pressure them to do better. Then of course there's environmental concerns which we're increasingly aware are an international problem, not an localized one. We can't enact law in China, but we can pressure them to make changes which are more fair to American competitors and healthier for the entire planet.
    - pm90 9y ago
      > It's hard to make the pie as large as possible when your second largest trade partner isn't playing fair. Hey! Stop blaming other countries because your domestic system is so fucked up. That your politicians passed a 1.5 trillion dollar tax cut which will benefit mostly the wealthy, instead of increasing taxes and using them to fund education, healthcare and other social programs. There seems more than enough pie to keep everyone happy, but some Americans seem hell bent on keeping the benefits of a wealthy society away from the neediest of you. > China has weird rules that restrict foreign companies from doing business there, which is a defacto tariff on all US corporations who want to sell to China. There's a lot of other industry-specific ways in which China is not playing fair. Of course American corporations want to manufacture in China to avoid paying for an American standard of living. And I get that poor countries are going to have lower wages. But these people are working in factories where suicide nets are necessary. We can pressure them to do better. Then of course there's environmental concerns which we're increasingly aware are an international problem, not an localized one. This is a straw man argument, please don't rationalize these tariffs as something that were meant to do anything but to right an imagined wrong in the mind of an Insane POTUS who thinks the trade deficit is an indication that other countries are "cheating" the US.
soVeryTired 9y ago
> It's also notable that tariffs are one of the few policies that economists are almost in universal agreement about [3]. Does anyone know of a good nuanced article or discussion on tariffs? The standard argument that I've seen is to invoke comparative advantage and call it a day. I've never really bought into that argument, so I'd love to see a less theoretical review of the effects that tariffs can have.
- mistermann 9y ago
  I'd also like to read a comprehensive non-partisan discussion on the matter. HN is one of the more intelligent forums I'm aware of, yet on certain topics like this, I assert that it is plagued by the same one dimensional, emotional, absolutist thinking we accuse others of on other topics. I strongly believe, and constantly test this theory as I am reading the news and forum discussions, that if there is an aspect of gender, sexuality, race, culture, and probably a few others involved in a given scenario, there are very strong subconscious mental processes that interfere with the thought processes of otherwise very logical and perfectly well-intentioned people.
DataWorker 9y ago
What about the male labor force participation rate?

by evanpw 9y ago

Consultant32452 9y ago

>But US unemployment is at historic lows Meanwhile the wealth gap is at historic highs. Increasing demand when supply is already low should bring up wages. >It's also notable that tariffs are one of the few policies that economists are almost in universal agreement about [3]. Tariffs will not generally improve the welfare of Americans, removing the tariffs after our global competitors have ceased their own unfair trade practices, improved worker conditions, stop polluting so much, etc. may improve the welfare of everyone.

evanpw 9y ago
> Meanwhile the wealth gap is at historic highs. Increasing demand when supply is already low should bring up wages. Tariffs are an extremely inefficient form of redistribution. If you want to fix the wealth gap, just make the pie as large as possible and redistribute directly. > Tariffs will not generally improve the welfare of Americans, removing the tariffs after our global competitors have ceased their own unfair trade practices, improved worker conditions, stop polluting so much, etc. may improve the welfare of everyone. I'm not sure what to make of this. It sounds like the plan is to make ourselves worse off in the hope that it also damages China? Most of the difference in labor practices comes from the fact that the US is much richer than China. It's unlikely that we can convince China to stop being poor by taxing ourselves.
- Consultant32452 9y ago
  >Tariffs are an extremely inefficient form of redistribution. If you want to fix the wealth gap, just make the pie as large as possible and redistribute directly. It's hard to make the pie as large as possible when your second largest trade partner isn't playing fair. >I'm not sure what to make of this. It sounds like the plan is to make ourselves worse off in the hope that it also damages China? Most of the difference in labor practices comes from the fact that the US is much richer than China. It's unlikely that we can convince China to stop being poor by taxing ourselves. China has weird rules that restrict foreign companies from doing business there, which is a defacto tariff on all US corporations who want to sell to China. There's a lot of other industry-specific ways in which China is not playing fair. Of course American corporations want to manufacture in China to avoid paying for an American standard of living. And I get that poor countries are going to have lower wages. But these people are working in factories where suicide nets are necessary. We can pressure them to do better. Then of course there's environmental concerns which we're increasingly aware are an international problem, not an localized one. We can't enact law in China, but we can pressure them to make changes which are more fair to American competitors and healthier for the entire planet.
  - pm90 9y ago
    > It's hard to make the pie as large as possible when your second largest trade partner isn't playing fair. Hey! Stop blaming other countries because your domestic system is so fucked up. That your politicians passed a 1.5 trillion dollar tax cut which will benefit mostly the wealthy, instead of increasing taxes and using them to fund education, healthcare and other social programs. There seems more than enough pie to keep everyone happy, but some Americans seem hell bent on keeping the benefits of a wealthy society away from the neediest of you. > China has weird rules that restrict foreign companies from doing business there, which is a defacto tariff on all US corporations who want to sell to China. There's a lot of other industry-specific ways in which China is not playing fair. Of course American corporations want to manufacture in China to avoid paying for an American standard of living. And I get that poor countries are going to have lower wages. But these people are working in factories where suicide nets are necessary. We can pressure them to do better. Then of course there's environmental concerns which we're increasingly aware are an international problem, not an localized one. This is a straw man argument, please don't rationalize these tariffs as something that were meant to do anything but to right an imagined wrong in the mind of an Insane POTUS who thinks the trade deficit is an indication that other countries are "cheating" the US.

soVeryTired 9y ago

> It's also notable that tariffs are one of the few policies that economists are almost in universal agreement about [3]. Does anyone know of a good nuanced article or discussion on tariffs? The standard argument that I've seen is to invoke comparative advantage and call it a day. I've never really bought into that argument, so I'd love to see a less theoretical review of the effects that tariffs can have.

mistermann 9y ago
I'd also like to read a comprehensive non-partisan discussion on the matter. HN is one of the more intelligent forums I'm aware of, yet on certain topics like this, I assert that it is plagued by the same one dimensional, emotional, absolutist thinking we accuse others of on other topics. I strongly believe, and constantly test this theory as I am reading the news and forum discussions, that if there is an aspect of gender, sexuality, race, culture, and probably a few others involved in a given scenario, there are very strong subconscious mental processes that interfere with the thought processes of otherwise very logical and perfectly well-intentioned people.

DataWorker 9y ago

What about the male labor force participation rate?