4 ms·

Wow, that video is pretty damning. (a) Even though the driver was getting a warning to put his hands on the wheel, the car should NOT continue driving forward

by tbabb 9y ago

Wow, that video is pretty damning. (a) Even though the driver was getting a warning to put his hands on the wheel, the car should NOT continue driving forward and piloting itself at all with no driver response and insufficient certainty to continue navigating itself. (b) There was a very obvious hard barrier right in front of the car. Why didn't the collision avoidance detect it and halt the car? (c) The car was clearly "pulled" to the left by the bright exit lane stripe and missing highway-side stripe. Simply following stripes seems an absurdly primitive and unreliable technique to me. The fact that the car could be "distracted" this way suggests to me that it isn't getting (or making good use of) a lot of information that should be available to it-- like the behavior of other traffic, the presence of other obstacles and roadside geometry (like the ignored barrier, which was on a collision path), the trajectory on previous trips (and any conclusions drawn then under better conditions), the road sign which indicated a fork (and which was also itself on a direct collision path), the crosswise striping in between the two forks which the car was driving over, and the striping on the other edge of the lane, and the lanes beyond, which followed the correct trajectory. Each of those things is a significant clue as to the real path of the lane, and are all machine-detectable and processable pieces of information. Even with nontrivial uncertainty about each of them, the totality of information, IMO, should be more than enough to clearly discern the correct lane, especially if efficiently used-- Kalman filter-like information synthesis can take a lot of very uncertain information and synthesize a very certain picture. Instead the machine ignored the holistic picture and "target fixated" on the stripe. This apparently has a disappointingly long way to go before it is a reliable system.

valuearb 9y ago
You don’t understand how these systems work. The optical/radar combo can’t see stationary objects well when the car is going more than 30 MPH, it’s a sea of false positives. This is true of every self driving system on production cars today, 3D Lidar might address it but that’s up to $50K a car.
- bipson 9y ago
  There is no production car with "self driving system" available right now. There are just "assistants", and they can't and should not drive on their own.
  - Fins 9y ago
    Then why does Tesla, on their order page offer this? >> Full Self-Driving Capability >> This doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver. They also seemingly purposely make it very vague as to what is actually available when you pay for it today (nothing), what might be available during your lifetime (it will try to kill you) and when it might be actually ready (never)... /s
    - Bluestrike2 9y ago
      Because simply offering the option for sale helps portray Tesla as forward-thinking? The option itself is basically a marketing mechanism at this time. The FSD option doesn't actually do anything right now or even add any extra hardware. According to their Q4'17 update letter,[0] "In October 2016, we began equipping all Tesla vehicles with hardware needed for full self-driving capability, including cameras that provide 360 degree visibility, updated ultrasonic sensors for object detection, a forward-facing radar with enhanced processing, and a powerful new onboard computer." All new Teslas manufactured since then include the same Hardware II (or the incremental "II.5" version), which includes the eight cameras referenced under the "Full Self-Driving Capability" option in their configurator. Enhanced AutoPilot activates certain software functionality (what people generally understand to be "AutoPilot"), while the "Full Self-Driving Capability" package doesn't actually do anything right now. You're just purchasing the right to unlock a future FSD update for a $1,000 discount today that may or may not come out before you sell the car. Basically, Tesla is betting that they'll be able to develop and deploy FSD in a reasonable (for consumers; from a developer and regulatory standpoint, it's incredibly aggressive) timeframe using the hardware already present on its cars. In the interim, FSD orders just sit on Tesla's books as deferred revenue because "FSD" hasn't actually been delivered yet. As an aside, it's actually kind of impressive that ~40% of buyers[1] have opted for the FSD option despite the fact that it doesn't exist yet. Offering the option today involves some pretty significant risk if there are significant delays or Tesla runs into unexpected development hurdles it can't easily get around. It could easily turn into a class action nightmare. 0. http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1564590-18-2956 http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1564590-18-2956 1. https://www.inc.com/kevin-j-ryan/35000-people-have-paid-for-tesla-full-self-driving-capabilities.html https://www.inc.com/kevin-j-ryan/35000-people-have-paid-for-...
- simion314 9y ago
  So this companies are pushing the self driving cars while the hardware is not there yet, this cars would hit a brick wall and ignore it because it may be a false positive. I am not even sure if Tesla have any piece of radar installed though. Do you have a link about the radars that are actually installed on this cars can and can't do?
  - buvanshak 9y ago
    > So this companies are pushing the self driving cars while the hardware is not there yet, Yes. You know why? Because they can. That's why...
  - baddox 9y ago
    Teslas made since October 2014 have a radar. https://www.tesla.com/blog/upgrading-autopilot-seeing-world-radar https://www.tesla.com/blog/upgrading-autopilot-seeing-world-...
  - valuearb 9y ago
    Autopilot isn’t a self driving system (yet), it’s a driver assistance technology. It explains this carefully to users when activated.
- tbabb 9y ago
  > The optical/radar combo can’t see stationary objects well when the car is going more than 30 MPH That seems pretty damning.
  - valuearb 9y ago
    No it’s not, because when you turn on Autopilot or any sinilar system, it explains these limitations. They are very good at lane keeping and avoiding traffic at highway speeds, but dependent on driver for detection of stationary obstacles. On typical sports of city streets, they are much better at detecting stationary objects.
  - stevenwoo 9y ago
    I don't know what became of it but there was already a crash with dashcam video example of this in 2016: https://www.autoblog.com/2016/09/14/fatal-tesla-crash-china-autopilot-lawsuit/ https://www.autoblog.com/2016/09/14/fatal-tesla-crash-china-...

by tbabb 9y ago

valuearb 9y ago

You don’t understand how these systems work. The optical/radar combo can’t see stationary objects well when the car is going more than 30 MPH, it’s a sea of false positives. This is true of every self driving system on production cars today, 3D Lidar might address it but that’s up to $50K a car.

bipson 9y ago
There is no production car with "self driving system" available right now. There are just "assistants", and they can't and should not drive on their own.
- Fins 9y ago
  Then why does Tesla, on their order page offer this? >> Full Self-Driving Capability >> This doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver. They also seemingly purposely make it very vague as to what is actually available when you pay for it today (nothing), what might be available during your lifetime (it will try to kill you) and when it might be actually ready (never)... /s
  - Bluestrike2 9y ago
    Because simply offering the option for sale helps portray Tesla as forward-thinking? The option itself is basically a marketing mechanism at this time. The FSD option doesn't actually do anything right now or even add any extra hardware. According to their Q4'17 update letter,[0] "In October 2016, we began equipping all Tesla vehicles with hardware needed for full self-driving capability, including cameras that provide 360 degree visibility, updated ultrasonic sensors for object detection, a forward-facing radar with enhanced processing, and a powerful new onboard computer." All new Teslas manufactured since then include the same Hardware II (or the incremental "II.5" version), which includes the eight cameras referenced under the "Full Self-Driving Capability" option in their configurator. Enhanced AutoPilot activates certain software functionality (what people generally understand to be "AutoPilot"), while the "Full Self-Driving Capability" package doesn't actually do anything right now. You're just purchasing the right to unlock a future FSD update for a $1,000 discount today that may or may not come out before you sell the car. Basically, Tesla is betting that they'll be able to develop and deploy FSD in a reasonable (for consumers; from a developer and regulatory standpoint, it's incredibly aggressive) timeframe using the hardware already present on its cars. In the interim, FSD orders just sit on Tesla's books as deferred revenue because "FSD" hasn't actually been delivered yet. As an aside, it's actually kind of impressive that ~40% of buyers[1] have opted for the FSD option despite the fact that it doesn't exist yet. Offering the option today involves some pretty significant risk if there are significant delays or Tesla runs into unexpected development hurdles it can't easily get around. It could easily turn into a class action nightmare. 0. http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1564590-18-2956 http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1564590-18-2956 1. https://www.inc.com/kevin-j-ryan/35000-people-have-paid-for-tesla-full-self-driving-capabilities.html https://www.inc.com/kevin-j-ryan/35000-people-have-paid-for-...
simion314 9y ago
So this companies are pushing the self driving cars while the hardware is not there yet, this cars would hit a brick wall and ignore it because it may be a false positive. I am not even sure if Tesla have any piece of radar installed though. Do you have a link about the radars that are actually installed on this cars can and can't do?
- buvanshak 9y ago
  > So this companies are pushing the self driving cars while the hardware is not there yet, Yes. You know why? Because they can. That's why...
- baddox 9y ago
  Teslas made since October 2014 have a radar. https://www.tesla.com/blog/upgrading-autopilot-seeing-world-radar https://www.tesla.com/blog/upgrading-autopilot-seeing-world-...
- valuearb 9y ago
  Autopilot isn’t a self driving system (yet), it’s a driver assistance technology. It explains this carefully to users when activated.
tbabb 9y ago
> The optical/radar combo can’t see stationary objects well when the car is going more than 30 MPH That seems pretty damning.
- valuearb 9y ago
  No it’s not, because when you turn on Autopilot or any sinilar system, it explains these limitations. They are very good at lane keeping and avoiding traffic at highway speeds, but dependent on driver for detection of stationary obstacles. On typical sports of city streets, they are much better at detecting stationary objects.
- stevenwoo 9y ago
  I don't know what became of it but there was already a crash with dashcam video example of this in 2016: https://www.autoblog.com/2016/09/14/fatal-tesla-crash-china-autopilot-lawsuit/ https://www.autoblog.com/2016/09/14/fatal-tesla-crash-china-...