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Right, intermittency is the biggest challenge renewables have but this is not an unsolvable problem. Forecasting and storage along with some automation will acc

Right, intermittency is the biggest challenge renewables have but this is not an unsolvable problem. Forecasting and storage along with some automation will accelerate the transition to largely renewable powered electricity grid. The price of generation is too cheap to ignore. These solutions are still in their infancy but I think (I’m bias as I work in this space building said solutions) will become the standard operation in less than a decade. That isn’t to say most developed countries won’t still be using fossil fuels (especially nuclear due to cost to build and gas due to its speed to ramp up and down), but purely for economical reasons, the transition will happen and these intermittency issues will be resolved in the next 10ish years IMO.

littlestymaar 9y ago
Have you read the storage figures in the article ? Storage won't do it, not with are current consumption, which will likely increase when electric cars become mainstream (which is a terrible idea btw). Also, storage is never counted as part of renewable costs in articles promoting renewable.
- layoric 9y ago
  I’m not seeing any specific over night storage numbers in the article no, but you’re right this is a huge problem that Li-ion won’t solve alone. Hydro will be a large part of this where geographically practical and then there are also a number of other options like molten salt that may also play a role. Our habits around electricity use will also have to change as well but with vehicle to grid solutions starting to come online from car manufacturers like Nissan, I think electric cars will be part of the solution though one that will take 20-30 years to become a major player. Cost of storage isn’t talked about for renewables usually because it isn’t needed to provide ~50%+ of usage, it’s the last 30% that will require storage of some kind for 100%. This will be doable for places near hydro but harder for places without. At 100,000GWh till end of March FY means ~140GWh over the 12 hours at night assuming usage is flat over the day (which it isn’t). I think you’re right that a usage behaviour change would be make the storage problem more practical to address.. EDIT: Incorrect figures from article regarding usage over 12 hour period.
  - littlestymaar 9y ago
    > Hydro will be a large part of this where geographically practical [From the article] For France, storage needs to be able to provide 55GW, which is 2.5 times bigger than the Three Gorges Dam, and way higher than the total hydro potential of France as a whole (which has one of the biggest in Europe). Controllable hydro is almost maxed out (or at least 80% maxed out) everywhere in Western Europe : remind it has always been the cheapest source of power since the beginning of electricity. We did all we could to harvest the most of it. The US is probably an exception among developed countries because it's enormous country with a tiny population in comparison. But yet, I'm not sure it's doable even in the US. > I think electric cars will be part of the solution [From the article] Even with Tesla Model X (which has the biggest battery currently) you'll need 260 millions car to provide enough storage for France, which is 6.5 times the number of cars in circulation there. If you take a more affordable car, you need 1 billion cars (25 times the existing total). Maybe storage will improve in the next decades, but I highly doubt we'll get batteries 25 times more efficient even in the next 20-30 years. We already know what progress we can expect for the next 10 years (it's already in the labs nowadays) and we are light-years away from that (we're talking about double digit percent improvements, not multiple times).
    - layoric 9y ago
      Ahh thanks for pointing those out I missed those skimming for `Wh`. "Storage needs to provide 55GW" seems to come from peak consumption rate considering gross yearly generation was at 556TWh in 2014. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_France https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_France This seems to be assuming that there will be 0 generation and all must come from storage which is not really a something that will happen in practice and also over night (when all solar is at 0 generation) consumption is usually a lot lower than peak. "Even with Tesla Model X (which has the biggest battery currently) you'll need 260 millions car to provide enough storage for France" This is just strange figures considering that the Model X base model battery size is 75kWh. Why would France need 19.5 TWh of car based storage? Even at a peak of 55GW usage, this fleet of 260M Model X cars would power all of France for 2 weeks! Realistically, vehicle to grid will only be a portion of storage and to get into the 90% renewable range only 12 hours of storage would be required which would be ~600GWh which even if all had to come from cars (overly expensive, not practical etc..) that would be <20 million Model X or ~30% of current cars on their roads (assuming owners would only allow their batteries to become 50% depleted). Again, this is assuming 0 generation over night which with a lot of wind all over the country would be unlikely, AND peak load over night, which doesn't happen in practice.

littlestymaar 9y ago

Have you read the storage figures in the article ? Storage won't do it, not with are current consumption, which will likely increase when electric cars become mainstream (which is a terrible idea btw). Also, storage is never counted as part of renewable costs in articles promoting renewable.

layoric 9y ago
I’m not seeing any specific over night storage numbers in the article no, but you’re right this is a huge problem that Li-ion won’t solve alone. Hydro will be a large part of this where geographically practical and then there are also a number of other options like molten salt that may also play a role. Our habits around electricity use will also have to change as well but with vehicle to grid solutions starting to come online from car manufacturers like Nissan, I think electric cars will be part of the solution though one that will take 20-30 years to become a major player. Cost of storage isn’t talked about for renewables usually because it isn’t needed to provide ~50%+ of usage, it’s the last 30% that will require storage of some kind for 100%. This will be doable for places near hydro but harder for places without. At 100,000GWh till end of March FY means ~140GWh over the 12 hours at night assuming usage is flat over the day (which it isn’t). I think you’re right that a usage behaviour change would be make the storage problem more practical to address.. EDIT: Incorrect figures from article regarding usage over 12 hour period.
- littlestymaar 9y ago
  > Hydro will be a large part of this where geographically practical [From the article] For France, storage needs to be able to provide 55GW, which is 2.5 times bigger than the Three Gorges Dam, and way higher than the total hydro potential of France as a whole (which has one of the biggest in Europe). Controllable hydro is almost maxed out (or at least 80% maxed out) everywhere in Western Europe : remind it has always been the cheapest source of power since the beginning of electricity. We did all we could to harvest the most of it. The US is probably an exception among developed countries because it's enormous country with a tiny population in comparison. But yet, I'm not sure it's doable even in the US. > I think electric cars will be part of the solution [From the article] Even with Tesla Model X (which has the biggest battery currently) you'll need 260 millions car to provide enough storage for France, which is 6.5 times the number of cars in circulation there. If you take a more affordable car, you need 1 billion cars (25 times the existing total). Maybe storage will improve in the next decades, but I highly doubt we'll get batteries 25 times more efficient even in the next 20-30 years. We already know what progress we can expect for the next 10 years (it's already in the labs nowadays) and we are light-years away from that (we're talking about double digit percent improvements, not multiple times).
  - layoric 9y ago
    Ahh thanks for pointing those out I missed those skimming for `Wh`. "Storage needs to provide 55GW" seems to come from peak consumption rate considering gross yearly generation was at 556TWh in 2014. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_France https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_France This seems to be assuming that there will be 0 generation and all must come from storage which is not really a something that will happen in practice and also over night (when all solar is at 0 generation) consumption is usually a lot lower than peak. "Even with Tesla Model X (which has the biggest battery currently) you'll need 260 millions car to provide enough storage for France" This is just strange figures considering that the Model X base model battery size is 75kWh. Why would France need 19.5 TWh of car based storage? Even at a peak of 55GW usage, this fleet of 260M Model X cars would power all of France for 2 weeks! Realistically, vehicle to grid will only be a portion of storage and to get into the 90% renewable range only 12 hours of storage would be required which would be ~600GWh which even if all had to come from cars (overly expensive, not practical etc..) that would be <20 million Model X or ~30% of current cars on their roads (assuming owners would only allow their batteries to become 50% depleted). Again, this is assuming 0 generation over night which with a lot of wind all over the country would be unlikely, AND peak load over night, which doesn't happen in practice.