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The author dramatically underestimates the opportunities of scale and future tech in her model. Amazon is already: - Installing lockers into apartment communi

The author dramatically underestimates the opportunities of scale and future tech in her model. Amazon is already: - Installing lockers into apartment communities https://www.amazon.com/b?ie=UTF8&node=6442600011 https://www.amazon.com/b?ie=UTF8&node=6442600011 that make deliveries dramatically more efficient. - Predictive logistics & ordering patterns are a core Amazon discipline and they are world class at it. - Droning looks like a gimmick today, but why should it be in the future? Imagine a not-far-out future where: - Predictive ordering algos keep right balance of product on hand - Order comes in, robot loads it from GIANT physical warehouse that is NOT in a city center - Order is sorted into a "locker" or a "single" end point - Locker end points are put onto a locker-loading vehicle that runs a daily route that ties into the 2hr timeline. - Single points deliveries are brought by automated heavy delivery truck to city center range from which point they are either droned or courier delivered - - - That future ain't that far off folks. And in the meantime Amazon, who has their shareholders trained to reinvest every dollar of profit into their scale, is going to go and corner the multi-trillion dollar grocery & last mile market.

stratelogical 9y ago
I would add Robot deliveries to this list as well. Yes, if these take off, things will look different. https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/25/16024470/starship-technologies-robot-delivery-just-eat https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/25/16024470/starship-technol...
leggomylibro 9y ago
The lockers are amazing. If you live in an apartment building, the leasing offices which sign for packages are often only open during business hours. If you live in a house, there's a good chance that someone grabs your package off your porch. So what do you do if you need a strip of LEDs for a project that you're putting together by this weekend and you don't have the right hours open in your schedule? (Or [insert random product here]?) Just have it show up at the supermarket/drug store/gas station in a couple of days. Easy. It's also cool that the apartment buildings can install the lockers and use them for packages which Amazon never touches, for the whole 'business hours' problem. But as Amazon's programs for offering free shipping to 3rd-party sellers are making it more of an 'Everything Store' by the day...well, it'll definitely be interesting to see what happens.
- AnssiH 9y ago
  > If you live in an apartment building, the leasing offices which sign for packages Somewhat OT, but are these common in US (or wherever you are)? If so, out of interest, what other duties to they have? In Finland, I've never seen such offices even in the larger apartment buildings with hundreds of dwellings. Parcel lockers (both public and recently in apartment buildings) are a thing here as well, but they are mostly replacing pickup-from-post-office. Home delivery has always been a premium option when ordering online, not the norm. The network here is owned by Posti so any company or individual can send packages to them, or use them to send packages at cheaper rates than going to the post office.
  - berkay 9y ago
    Yes it's very common to rent from a company rather than individual landlords. Some of these companies are massive managing hundreds of thousands apartments. Many of the building are specifically built as rentals and all units are for rent hence there is often a leasing office somewhere in the building.
    - AnssiH 9y ago
      OK. Here such companies just have one central office per city/region, no building-specific ones. The largest companies here manage "only" tens of thousands of rental apartments, though.
      - d1zzy 9y ago
        How are they handling visiting the grounds/future apartments for interested renters? That's one of the main duties of the leasing office people in the US. When looking to rent one visits many such places and asks the leasing office people various questions while doing so.
        morsch 9y ago
        Typically by making an appointment.
feniv 9y ago
Eventually, Amazon could also combine their predictive ordering with their lockers to stock common goods before they're ordered (some combination of a vending machine and a pickup locker).
macspoofing 9y ago
>Droning looks like a gimmick today, but why should it be in the future? It's loud. And dangerous.
- askafriend 9y ago
  I'll be the devil's advocate here: Cars are loud and dangerous - we figured it out as a society.
  - stupidcar 9y ago
    We've become significantly more risk-averse as a society though. If cars were invented today, it seems extremely unlikely that the intimate mixing of pedestrian and vehicle realms would be tolerated in the way it is now. We generally only accept dangerous transportation, structures and substances if they are a legacy from an earlier age. And even then you see high pressure to reduce or eliminate them, e.g. cigarettes.
  - macspoofing 9y ago
    That's a fair point, but have you actually heard a drone? It's really loud. It will be incredibly hard to counteract public pressure.
    - askafriend 9y ago
      I actually just bought one last weekend. Haven't flow it yet, so I suppose I'll find out very soon! I believe you that they're crazy loud, but I think the technology will improve and we'll figure out regulation, fly zones, etc. Of course, this is all predicated on us agreeing as a society that we want this thing integrated into our communities. This want is unclear and I think that's the meat of the point you were making which is a fair one.
    - phil21 9y ago
      They are not able to be heard (at least in a common city setting) above 100ft or so, in my experience. Maybe less. I imagine any drone network would fly at a couple hundred feet for most of the journey, and only be a "nuisance" for the period of time it has to descend straight down to the delivery point.
Regardsyjc 9y ago
I'm an Amazon seller and Amazon can't even keep track of products in their own fulfillment centers. They've added $10k+ worth of random inventory into my account and I can't even find someone who cares enough to fix the mistake. My support ticket is 2+ months old now. At least I'm on the better end, I know someone else with the exact opposite problem who is magically losing inventory at Amazon's fulfillment centers... Based on this, I want to say that that future is off but it's probably a different team... From the top level, figuring that out probably isn't hard even if Amazon still has far to go when it comes to execution. From the perception of someone who's currently learning how to code to build a restocking software for Amazon sellers.
itronitron 9y ago
There must be a lot of slop still in the system, because I had 3 separate small packages (from the same order) delivered by 3 different vehicles to my door within the span of 30 minutes (on the same day) last week. All three items would have easily fit into the smallest box that they delivered. Presumably they had enough deliveries in my neighborhood to make this worthwhile.

stratelogical 9y ago

I would add Robot deliveries to this list as well. Yes, if these take off, things will look different. https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/25/16024470/starship-technologies-robot-delivery-just-eat https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/25/16024470/starship-technol...

leggomylibro 9y ago

The lockers are amazing. If you live in an apartment building, the leasing offices which sign for packages are often only open during business hours. If you live in a house, there's a good chance that someone grabs your package off your porch. So what do you do if you need a strip of LEDs for a project that you're putting together by this weekend and you don't have the right hours open in your schedule? (Or [insert random product here]?) Just have it show up at the supermarket/drug store/gas station in a couple of days. Easy. It's also cool that the apartment buildings can install the lockers and use them for packages which Amazon never touches, for the whole 'business hours' problem. But as Amazon's programs for offering free shipping to 3rd-party sellers are making it more of an 'Everything Store' by the day...well, it'll definitely be interesting to see what happens.

AnssiH 9y ago
> If you live in an apartment building, the leasing offices which sign for packages Somewhat OT, but are these common in US (or wherever you are)? If so, out of interest, what other duties to they have? In Finland, I've never seen such offices even in the larger apartment buildings with hundreds of dwellings. Parcel lockers (both public and recently in apartment buildings) are a thing here as well, but they are mostly replacing pickup-from-post-office. Home delivery has always been a premium option when ordering online, not the norm. The network here is owned by Posti so any company or individual can send packages to them, or use them to send packages at cheaper rates than going to the post office.
- berkay 9y ago
  Yes it's very common to rent from a company rather than individual landlords. Some of these companies are massive managing hundreds of thousands apartments. Many of the building are specifically built as rentals and all units are for rent hence there is often a leasing office somewhere in the building.
  - AnssiH 9y ago
    OK. Here such companies just have one central office per city/region, no building-specific ones. The largest companies here manage "only" tens of thousands of rental apartments, though.
    - d1zzy 9y ago
      How are they handling visiting the grounds/future apartments for interested renters? That's one of the main duties of the leasing office people in the US. When looking to rent one visits many such places and asks the leasing office people various questions while doing so.
      - morsch 9y ago
        Typically by making an appointment.

feniv 9y ago

Eventually, Amazon could also combine their predictive ordering with their lockers to stock common goods before they're ordered (some combination of a vending machine and a pickup locker).

macspoofing 9y ago

>Droning looks like a gimmick today, but why should it be in the future? It's loud. And dangerous.

askafriend 9y ago
I'll be the devil's advocate here: Cars are loud and dangerous - we figured it out as a society.
- stupidcar 9y ago
  We've become significantly more risk-averse as a society though. If cars were invented today, it seems extremely unlikely that the intimate mixing of pedestrian and vehicle realms would be tolerated in the way it is now. We generally only accept dangerous transportation, structures and substances if they are a legacy from an earlier age. And even then you see high pressure to reduce or eliminate them, e.g. cigarettes.
- macspoofing 9y ago
  That's a fair point, but have you actually heard a drone? It's really loud. It will be incredibly hard to counteract public pressure.
  - askafriend 9y ago
    I actually just bought one last weekend. Haven't flow it yet, so I suppose I'll find out very soon! I believe you that they're crazy loud, but I think the technology will improve and we'll figure out regulation, fly zones, etc. Of course, this is all predicated on us agreeing as a society that we want this thing integrated into our communities. This want is unclear and I think that's the meat of the point you were making which is a fair one.
  - phil21 9y ago
    They are not able to be heard (at least in a common city setting) above 100ft or so, in my experience. Maybe less. I imagine any drone network would fly at a couple hundred feet for most of the journey, and only be a "nuisance" for the period of time it has to descend straight down to the delivery point.

Regardsyjc 9y ago

I'm an Amazon seller and Amazon can't even keep track of products in their own fulfillment centers. They've added $10k+ worth of random inventory into my account and I can't even find someone who cares enough to fix the mistake. My support ticket is 2+ months old now. At least I'm on the better end, I know someone else with the exact opposite problem who is magically losing inventory at Amazon's fulfillment centers... Based on this, I want to say that that future is off but it's probably a different team... From the top level, figuring that out probably isn't hard even if Amazon still has far to go when it comes to execution. From the perception of someone who's currently learning how to code to build a restocking software for Amazon sellers.

itronitron 9y ago

There must be a lot of slop still in the system, because I had 3 separate small packages (from the same order) delivered by 3 different vehicles to my door within the span of 30 minutes (on the same day) last week. All three items would have easily fit into the smallest box that they delivered. Presumably they had enough deliveries in my neighborhood to make this worthwhile.