Totally agree the unknown unknows make human prediction ability particularly poor in non physical fields. Humans are spectacularly bad at guaging probability of

Totally agree the unknown unknows make human prediction ability particularly poor in non physical fields. Humans are spectacularly bad at guaging probability of future events, especially using only past evidence Such presise figures are no better than a finger in the air. For what it's worth I would wager that Apple market share will not drop that much and neither will Nokia's if the MeeGo OS performs as good as it looks: http://bit.ly/bXmOyg http://bit.ly/bXmOyg