3 ms·

Myspace also reached a level of ubiquity that prior social media (think Six Degrees, ICQ, Friendster, AIM, etc.) could only dream of. Its downfall also illustr

Myspace also reached a level of ubiquity that prior social media (think Six Degrees, ICQ, Friendster, AIM, etc.) could only dream of. Its downfall also illustrates how little it mattered that they were then hosting their users' digital life. A new generation rose using a new social medium, and this lack of new users eventually sucked the life out of it. That, incidentally, is probably why Facebook paid so much for WhatsApp.

yomly 9y ago
You're entitled to your opinion. But I don't think you're even comparing apples to apples here. Facebook claims 2.2 billion monthly active users. Sure, that is a flattering and inflated number, but at face value that is about 28% of the world's population. That is "the world's most recognized word is Coke/Apple" levels of mindshare. That simply doesn't go away overnight. People no longer drink 24 bottles of Coke a day[0] but Coke is still everywhere and ubiquitous. Hence my assertion that Facebook has critical mass: the history of MySpace isn't a useful analogy for trying to stipulate what might happen to Facebook. After a certain size/ubiquity they can sidestep user exodus, if only through sheer acquisition of the replacement. Perhaps a concession is that Facebook the product may be gone in a decade. I'll be very surprised if Facebook, Inc. is gone. [0] https://www.ft.com/content/bd4d1876-e464-11e4-9039-00144feab7de https://www.ft.com/content/bd4d1876-e464-11e4-9039-00144feab...
signal11 9y ago
Also, kids don't like social networks where their parents hang out. This more than anything else will kill Facebook -- it'll be what old people do. Of course, Facebook could acquire (and Messenger and Whatsapp and Instagram are powerful moats) but the core social network functionality is weaker than it appears.

3 ms·

Myspace also reached a level of ubiquity that prior social media (think Six Degrees, ICQ, Friendster, AIM, etc.) could only dream of. Its downfall also illustr

by ddebernardy 9y ago

yomly 9y ago
You're entitled to your opinion. But I don't think you're even comparing apples to apples here. Facebook claims 2.2 billion monthly active users. Sure, that is a flattering and inflated number, but at face value that is about 28% of the world's population. That is "the world's most recognized word is Coke/Apple" levels of mindshare. That simply doesn't go away overnight. People no longer drink 24 bottles of Coke a day[0] but Coke is still everywhere and ubiquitous. Hence my assertion that Facebook has critical mass: the history of MySpace isn't a useful analogy for trying to stipulate what might happen to Facebook. After a certain size/ubiquity they can sidestep user exodus, if only through sheer acquisition of the replacement. Perhaps a concession is that Facebook the product may be gone in a decade. I'll be very surprised if Facebook, Inc. is gone. [0] https://www.ft.com/content/bd4d1876-e464-11e4-9039-00144feab7de https://www.ft.com/content/bd4d1876-e464-11e4-9039-00144feab...
signal11 9y ago
Also, kids don't like social networks where their parents hang out. This more than anything else will kill Facebook -- it'll be what old people do. Of course, Facebook could acquire (and Messenger and Whatsapp and Instagram are powerful moats) but the core social network functionality is weaker than it appears.