Part of the problem is a confusion between raw poll results—where 59-41 means almost certain victory to one side—and statistical likelihood. On election night,

Part of the problem is a confusion between raw poll results—where 59-41 means almost certain victory to one side—and statistical likelihood. On election night, Fivethirtyeight gave Trump a 29 percent chance of winning the electoral college. Not a 71-29 poll result, a nearly three-in-ten chance of winning. Let that sink in for a second, and reevaluate the media narrative that the pollsters got it wrong.