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The bloomberg tracker predicts a rate of around 2000 https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracke

The bloomberg tracker predicts a rate of around 2000 https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/ https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/ I wouldn't say they are laughably behind. Projects do get delayed. My own projects got delayed by multiple months. The California high speed rail is 3 years delayed ! Its better to do it right than to just hurry things.

Bluestrike2 9y ago
Their most recent estimates are around ~1,076 a week. Those numbers are horribly behind their production targets. And that's a tiny fraction of the 500,000 cars annually that was the initial target for 2018 as of two years ago.[0] Tesla bet the farm on revolutionizing auto manufacturing while seemingly ignoring much of what other manufacturers have learned over the years.[1] Long-term, elements of that bet could pay pay off. But right now? They're still struggling to scale up Model 3 production. And that's for a car that was literally designed to be less complex to manufacturer, with fewer, simpler parts relative to the Model S and X. It doesn't matter that their manufacturing approach might be more efficient in the future when everything is working perfectly if they can't meet their bills this year. No other manufacturer has these kinds of prolonged production problems. They meet significantly higher production targets and with fewer quality control issues. If Tesla doesn't show significant progress this year (both on production targets and lowering their burn rate), they're going to be in serious trouble. Most likely, we'll end up seeing Tesla have to hire contract manufacturers like Magna Steyr to build complete cars. Personally, I'd be fine with that. It'd give Tesla its best chance to entrench itself in the EV market before the traditional automakers step get involved. They, for one, won't have similar problems. I genuinely want Tesla to succeed, but it's become abundantly clear that they don't know how to find a way out of "production hell." 0. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-results/tesla-puts-pedal-to-the-metal-500000-cars-planned-in-2018-idUSKCN0XV2JL https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-results/tesla-puts-... 1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2016/08/04/tesla-model-3-manufacturing/#5c5c357b751b https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2016/08/04/tesla-mo...
dragontamer 9y ago
> My own projects got delayed by multiple months. Do you have $230 million dollars payment due in half-a-year, and $920 million due in a few months after that? > Its better to do it right than to just hurry things. Sure it is. But the CEO has to keep the bills paid, and the bill is about to come due. I think its reasonable for people to feel worried right now. Elon has managed to scrounge up money out of nowhere before. The Model 3 reservation system raised $300 million nearly instantly for instance. So these aren't unfathomable numbers at all. But its a risk.
rhizome 9y ago
I once heard a truism that projects slip by the units in which they're measured. If the due date is in weeks, it will slip by weeks. Months, months. Etc. I think HSR is being measured in years, Tesla seems to be less (I don't follow them). Point being: "slipping" by itself does not necessarily set up an apples to apples basis between different kinds of projects.
username223 9y ago
Man, that graph of "Tesla's Production vs Tesla’s Targets" is damning. Either they are completely unable to predict their own manufacturing progress, or they're telling the same lie over and over. Even at 2000/week, it will take them a few years to work through the people who have given them (refundable) deposits.

Bluestrike2 9y ago

Their most recent estimates are around ~1,076 a week. Those numbers are horribly behind their production targets. And that's a tiny fraction of the 500,000 cars annually that was the initial target for 2018 as of two years ago.[0] Tesla bet the farm on revolutionizing auto manufacturing while seemingly ignoring much of what other manufacturers have learned over the years.[1] Long-term, elements of that bet could pay pay off. But right now? They're still struggling to scale up Model 3 production. And that's for a car that was literally designed to be less complex to manufacturer, with fewer, simpler parts relative to the Model S and X. It doesn't matter that their manufacturing approach might be more efficient in the future when everything is working perfectly if they can't meet their bills this year. No other manufacturer has these kinds of prolonged production problems. They meet significantly higher production targets and with fewer quality control issues. If Tesla doesn't show significant progress this year (both on production targets and lowering their burn rate), they're going to be in serious trouble. Most likely, we'll end up seeing Tesla have to hire contract manufacturers like Magna Steyr to build complete cars. Personally, I'd be fine with that. It'd give Tesla its best chance to entrench itself in the EV market before the traditional automakers step get involved. They, for one, won't have similar problems. I genuinely want Tesla to succeed, but it's become abundantly clear that they don't know how to find a way out of "production hell." 0. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-results/tesla-puts-pedal-to-the-metal-500000-cars-planned-in-2018-idUSKCN0XV2JL https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-results/tesla-puts-... 1. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2016/08/04/tesla-model-3-manufacturing/#5c5c357b751b https://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2016/08/04/tesla-mo...

dragontamer 9y ago

> My own projects got delayed by multiple months. Do you have $230 million dollars payment due in half-a-year, and $920 million due in a few months after that? > Its better to do it right than to just hurry things. Sure it is. But the CEO has to keep the bills paid, and the bill is about to come due. I think its reasonable for people to feel worried right now. Elon has managed to scrounge up money out of nowhere before. The Model 3 reservation system raised $300 million nearly instantly for instance. So these aren't unfathomable numbers at all. But its a risk.

rhizome 9y ago

I once heard a truism that projects slip by the units in which they're measured. If the due date is in weeks, it will slip by weeks. Months, months. Etc. I think HSR is being measured in years, Tesla seems to be less (I don't follow them). Point being: "slipping" by itself does not necessarily set up an apples to apples basis between different kinds of projects.

username223 9y ago

Man, that graph of "Tesla's Production vs Tesla’s Targets" is damning. Either they are completely unable to predict their own manufacturing progress, or they're telling the same lie over and over. Even at 2000/week, it will take them a few years to work through the people who have given them (refundable) deposits.