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many years ago, i had bet a friend that facebook would begin to decline in 2016. seems like i might have been off by two years. shucks my bet was predicated on

many years ago, i had bet a friend that facebook would begin to decline in 2016. seems like i might have been off by two years. shucks my bet was predicated on (1) people realizing the insidiousness of facebook, (2) the cool kids moving on to other platforms, and (3) mobile communications being omnipresent and eclipsing facebook (solid but not earth-shatteringly original reasons). i'd attribute the demises of friendster and myspace primarily to #2 (with underlying product and marketing issues exacerbating it). but more than that was required to topple the massive network effects moat that facebook built. notice that it wasn't another social network (e.g., snapchat) that will have overtaken it but rather a confluence of other issues striking in concert (some self-inflicted).

tomhschmidt 9y ago
What exactly is declining? Their MAU, Time Spent, # Advertisers, and Revenue numbers are all increasing (https://techcrunch.com/2017/06/27/facebook-2-billion-users/ https://techcrunch.com/2017/06/27/facebook-2-billion-users/). Maybe they're just declining in eyes of SV bubble residents.
- ajkjk 9y ago
  Well, their widespread acceptability seems to be declining, as indicated by all these articles and quittings lately. Presumably widespread quitting of users would only come after, not before, some high profile upsets and mistakes. And # of Advertisers and Revenue are proportional to how people think they're doing, not how they're actually doing, and would presumably only decline after a mass exodus.
  - emodendroket 9y ago
    Yes, people are grumbling about them, but how many of them are leaving?
- clairity 9y ago
  i didn't make a strong claim that they are declining right now, but sentiment really seems to have taken a dive in the past few weeks, which could be a leading indicator of a decline. (and your linked article is 9 months old talking about even older data so is not really relevant to the current state of affairs.)

tomhschmidt 9y ago

What exactly is declining? Their MAU, Time Spent, # Advertisers, and Revenue numbers are all increasing (https://techcrunch.com/2017/06/27/facebook-2-billion-users/ https://techcrunch.com/2017/06/27/facebook-2-billion-users/). Maybe they're just declining in eyes of SV bubble residents.

ajkjk 9y ago
Well, their widespread acceptability seems to be declining, as indicated by all these articles and quittings lately. Presumably widespread quitting of users would only come after, not before, some high profile upsets and mistakes. And # of Advertisers and Revenue are proportional to how people think they're doing, not how they're actually doing, and would presumably only decline after a mass exodus.
- emodendroket 9y ago
  Yes, people are grumbling about them, but how many of them are leaving?
clairity 9y ago
i didn't make a strong claim that they are declining right now, but sentiment really seems to have taken a dive in the past few weeks, which could be a leading indicator of a decline. (and your linked article is 9 months old talking about even older data so is not really relevant to the current state of affairs.)