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I don't know why you were down voted. It should be obvious, but people still interpret odds like that as it was a sure thing.
by corpMaverick 9y ago
I don't know why you were down voted. It should be obvious, but people still interpret odds like that as it was a sure thing.
- sjwright 9y agoPart of the problem is a confusion between raw poll results—where 59-41 means almost certain victory to one side—and statistical likelihood. On election night, Fivethirtyeight gave Trump a 29 percent chance of winning the electoral college. Not a 71-29 poll result, a nearly three-in-ten chance of winning. Let that sink in for a second, and reevaluate the media narrative that the pollsters got it wrong.