4 ms·
There's no logical conflict between saying Clinton had a 10 to 1 chance of winning and Trump actually winning. 10 to 1 still means Trump wins 10% of the time.
by sjwright 9y ago
There's no logical conflict between saying Clinton had a 10 to 1 chance of winning and Trump actually winning. 10 to 1 still means Trump wins 10% of the time.
- corpMaverick 9y agoI don't know why you were down voted. It should be obvious, but people still interpret odds like that as it was a sure thing.
- sjwright 9y agoPart of the problem is a confusion between raw poll results—where 59-41 means almost certain victory to one side—and statistical likelihood. On election night, Fivethirtyeight gave Trump a 29 percent chance of winning the electoral college. Not a 71-29 poll result, a nearly three-in-ten chance of winning. Let that sink in for a second, and reevaluate the media narrative that the pollsters got it wrong.