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While I don't disagree that continued bad press could set back consumer confidence in this new technology, I think the wheels are already in motion - self drivi

While I don't disagree that continued bad press could set back consumer confidence in this new technology, I think the wheels are already in motion - self driving vehicles (in some form) are coming, like it or not.

gwbas1c 9y ago
Setting back consumer confidence is a good thing: Anyone who thinks automated cars will be ready before 2030 is delusional. 2030 is coming soon, and people have short memories.
- tigershark 9y ago
  Waymo is already operating self driving cars without a safety driver moving people around Chandler. So I guess that self driving cars are already here.
  - Piskvorrr 9y ago
    "The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed." -William Gibson In other words, yes, you will have high-tech enclaves ("works around Chandler because we already know how to drive there"); they will be minor compared to the rest of the world still living in 20th century (if even that). Try driving a SDC outside the population centers - this is literally uncharted territory. "But but but cities are hard, everything else is EASY!" Oh yeah? Once SDVs venture out in the open, we'll see another wave of deaths (beyond the one that begins now): "car drove itself off badly marked road", "car stranded itself and did something profoundly stupid" etc. Driving with exact maps takes off one of the hard parts; having a point cloud of the entire continent sounds improbable.
- hossbeast 9y ago
  2030 is in 12 years. 12 years ago, the iPhone did not yet exist (it was released in June 2007, ~10 years ago).
matte_black 9y ago
Like I’ve said I’d rather skip to self-flying vehicles and the advancements that would come from developing them. No pedestrians to worry about, crashes easier to avoid, no mixing of autonomous and active traffic, and faster travel times.
- npunt 9y ago
  And minor engineering issues leading to missiles raining down from the sky. If we're talking safety, thousands of low-flying objects in dense urban areas is not a good idea in the foreseeable future. And certainly not in public perception.
  - matte_black 9y ago
    Why? How is it more dangerous than 12 lane autonomous intersections?
    - soperj 9y ago
      9/11
    - vkou 9y ago
      When a car's engine fails on the freeway it doesn't fall out of the sky onto my head.
    - Piskvorrr 9y ago
      A car with problems can stop. An airplane with problems can also stop...followed by no more lift, followed by gravity taking over, followed by RUD.
- paulie_a 9y ago
  So we need to invent magic to make that happen. Because optimistacally that is at least 75 years away. Wide scale self driving cars is probably a good 20 years away.
buvanshak 9y ago
I had written this else where, but I think there should be separate tests designed for a self driving vehicle and every single one of the SDV should pass the tests consistently before being put on road... Until such laws and tests are devised, the all testing of SDVs on real roads should be suspended.. Why are people not asking/demanding this?
- cctt23 9y ago
  A lot of people have no real idea just how widespread that testing is, and people tend to assume that “someone must be taking care of this.”
- tigershark 9y ago
  How would have helped in this case where an assisted driving system, allegedly, caused a fatality? For assisted driving systems the driver is always in charge and I think that we already have mandatory tests for the drivers.
  - buvanshak 9y ago
    Not referring to this case, but to self driving vehicles in general..
tracker1 9y ago
I'd be pretty happy with just self-parking... since it seems parking spaces are way too tight in a lot of places. Almost counterintuitive, but with a backup camera, I tend to do better parking backwards, often giving a few more inches to my driver side aligning with a forward parked vehicle.
- agumonkey 9y ago
  I think I recall someone saying building a very limited driving control would already bring a lot of benefits. I think that car that would drive themselves below 1mph would already make people happy. You can move things around near house, near stores, near office. At speed that are near danger free. And it feels a tad exciting as consumer experience.
Piskvorrr 9y ago
So was nuclear power, before TMI and Chernobyl - there is no plot armor for any technology. Do not underestimate the power of fear and public opinion.

gwbas1c 9y ago

Setting back consumer confidence is a good thing: Anyone who thinks automated cars will be ready before 2030 is delusional. 2030 is coming soon, and people have short memories.

tigershark 9y ago
Waymo is already operating self driving cars without a safety driver moving people around Chandler. So I guess that self driving cars are already here.
- Piskvorrr 9y ago
  "The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed." -William Gibson In other words, yes, you will have high-tech enclaves ("works around Chandler because we already know how to drive there"); they will be minor compared to the rest of the world still living in 20th century (if even that). Try driving a SDC outside the population centers - this is literally uncharted territory. "But but but cities are hard, everything else is EASY!" Oh yeah? Once SDVs venture out in the open, we'll see another wave of deaths (beyond the one that begins now): "car drove itself off badly marked road", "car stranded itself and did something profoundly stupid" etc. Driving with exact maps takes off one of the hard parts; having a point cloud of the entire continent sounds improbable.
hossbeast 9y ago
2030 is in 12 years. 12 years ago, the iPhone did not yet exist (it was released in June 2007, ~10 years ago).

matte_black 9y ago

Like I’ve said I’d rather skip to self-flying vehicles and the advancements that would come from developing them. No pedestrians to worry about, crashes easier to avoid, no mixing of autonomous and active traffic, and faster travel times.

npunt 9y ago
And minor engineering issues leading to missiles raining down from the sky. If we're talking safety, thousands of low-flying objects in dense urban areas is not a good idea in the foreseeable future. And certainly not in public perception.
- matte_black 9y ago
  Why? How is it more dangerous than 12 lane autonomous intersections?
  - soperj 9y ago
    9/11
  - vkou 9y ago
    When a car's engine fails on the freeway it doesn't fall out of the sky onto my head.
  - Piskvorrr 9y ago
    A car with problems can stop. An airplane with problems can also stop...followed by no more lift, followed by gravity taking over, followed by RUD.
paulie_a 9y ago
So we need to invent magic to make that happen. Because optimistacally that is at least 75 years away. Wide scale self driving cars is probably a good 20 years away.

buvanshak 9y ago

I had written this else where, but I think there should be separate tests designed for a self driving vehicle and every single one of the SDV should pass the tests consistently before being put on road... Until such laws and tests are devised, the all testing of SDVs on real roads should be suspended.. Why are people not asking/demanding this?

cctt23 9y ago
A lot of people have no real idea just how widespread that testing is, and people tend to assume that “someone must be taking care of this.”
tigershark 9y ago
How would have helped in this case where an assisted driving system, allegedly, caused a fatality? For assisted driving systems the driver is always in charge and I think that we already have mandatory tests for the drivers.
- buvanshak 9y ago
  Not referring to this case, but to self driving vehicles in general..

tracker1 9y ago

I'd be pretty happy with just self-parking... since it seems parking spaces are way too tight in a lot of places. Almost counterintuitive, but with a backup camera, I tend to do better parking backwards, often giving a few more inches to my driver side aligning with a forward parked vehicle.

agumonkey 9y ago
I think I recall someone saying building a very limited driving control would already bring a lot of benefits. I think that car that would drive themselves below 1mph would already make people happy. You can move things around near house, near stores, near office. At speed that are near danger free. And it feels a tad exciting as consumer experience.

Piskvorrr 9y ago

So was nuclear power, before TMI and Chernobyl - there is no plot armor for any technology. Do not underestimate the power of fear and public opinion.