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I mean I get what your saying and I agree that Elon's reputation and past success should skew the risk equation a little in Elon's favor. But the risk question
by vanattab 9y ago
I mean I get what your saying and I agree that Elon's reputation and past success should skew the risk equation a little in Elon's favor. But the risk question is not "being stretched a little" is been completely thrown out. There is absolutely no logic to why a company that produced 100,000 cars/year for a total loss of 2 billion is worth 2x a company that produced 6,200,000 cars/year with total profits of 7.2 billion. (That is not even mentioning the 12 billion in cash reserves held by Ford). I love Tesla/SpaceX/Elon as much as the next millennial but I would not touch Tesla stock with a 10ft pole.
- panarky 9y ago> There is absolutely no logic to why a company that produced 100,000 cars/year for a total loss of 2 billion is worth 2x a company that produced 6,200,000 cars/year with total profits of 7.2 billion. A company's valuation is determined by expectations for the future.
- vanattab 9y agoThat is exactly my point! There is no reasonable expectation for the future that would justify investing the current valuation.
- greglindahl 9y agoThe market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.
- wellboy 9y agoExcept that Tesla is the currently the strongest player to take the biggest market in history, autonomous driving with electric cars and Ford isn't.
- loceng 9y agoEverything is exponential. If most people are a 1 or 2, and Elon is a 3 - that's a huge lead/advantage that on an exponential scale puts him more than a little ahead.