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That does not invalidate his points about Tesla's profits, Model 3 delays etc. He might be right about that Tesla is overvalued.

by t3rmi 9y ago

CodeWriter23 9y ago
Meh. Tesla has been within days of bankruptcy before.
loceng 9y ago
Tesla being lead by a person with lots of past success including getting ready to setup a colony on Mars - you probably can stretch out the risk a little further than compared to say, most anyone else. There are a lot of people, including those with wealth, who will want to see Tesla succeed even if that requires certain unusual measures for a public company; I doubt it will come to this.
- vanattab 9y ago
  I mean I get what your saying and I agree that Elon's reputation and past success should skew the risk equation a little in Elon's favor. But the risk question is not "being stretched a little" is been completely thrown out. There is absolutely no logic to why a company that produced 100,000 cars/year for a total loss of 2 billion is worth 2x a company that produced 6,200,000 cars/year with total profits of 7.2 billion. (That is not even mentioning the 12 billion in cash reserves held by Ford). I love Tesla/SpaceX/Elon as much as the next millennial but I would not touch Tesla stock with a 10ft pole.
  - panarky 9y ago
    > There is absolutely no logic to why a company that produced 100,000 cars/year for a total loss of 2 billion is worth 2x a company that produced 6,200,000 cars/year with total profits of 7.2 billion. A company's valuation is determined by expectations for the future.
    - vanattab 9y ago
      That is exactly my point! There is no reasonable expectation for the future that would justify investing the current valuation.
      - greglindahl 9y ago
        The market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.
      - wellboy 9y ago
        Except that Tesla is the currently the strongest player to take the biggest market in history, autonomous driving with electric cars and Ford isn't.
  - loceng 9y ago
    Everything is exponential. If most people are a 1 or 2, and Elon is a 3 - that's a huge lead/advantage that on an exponential scale puts him more than a little ahead.
- panarky 9y ago
  Just as Tesla revolutionized the car, they're now attempting to revolutionize the car factory. If they can reinvent "the machine that builds the machine", the sky is the limit. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSO1dnSbu_k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSO1dnSbu_k If they fail, then the shorts will have some fun. But I wouldn't bet against Elon Musk even with long odds.
- pulisse 9y ago
  with lots of past success including getting ready to setup a colony on Mars How is that a "past success"?
  - loceng 9y ago
    Good catch on the wording, thanks for pointing it out. To clarify, the past success part of the future colony on Mars is in the groundwork he has already laid with Tesla/Solar City, SpaceX, Boring Company -- all necessary technology for a proper foundation of a colony.

That does not invalidate his points about Tesla's profits, Model 3 delays etc. He might be right about that Tesla is overvalued.

by t3rmi 9y ago

That does not invalidate his points about Tesla's profits, Model 3 delays etc. He might be right about that Tesla is overvalued.

CodeWriter23 9y ago

Meh. Tesla has been within days of bankruptcy before.

loceng 9y ago

Tesla being lead by a person with lots of past success including getting ready to setup a colony on Mars - you probably can stretch out the risk a little further than compared to say, most anyone else. There are a lot of people, including those with wealth, who will want to see Tesla succeed even if that requires certain unusual measures for a public company; I doubt it will come to this.

vanattab 9y ago
I mean I get what your saying and I agree that Elon's reputation and past success should skew the risk equation a little in Elon's favor. But the risk question is not "being stretched a little" is been completely thrown out. There is absolutely no logic to why a company that produced 100,000 cars/year for a total loss of 2 billion is worth 2x a company that produced 6,200,000 cars/year with total profits of 7.2 billion. (That is not even mentioning the 12 billion in cash reserves held by Ford). I love Tesla/SpaceX/Elon as much as the next millennial but I would not touch Tesla stock with a 10ft pole.
- panarky 9y ago
  > There is absolutely no logic to why a company that produced 100,000 cars/year for a total loss of 2 billion is worth 2x a company that produced 6,200,000 cars/year with total profits of 7.2 billion. A company's valuation is determined by expectations for the future.
  - vanattab 9y ago
    That is exactly my point! There is no reasonable expectation for the future that would justify investing the current valuation.
    - greglindahl 9y ago
      The market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.
    - wellboy 9y ago
      Except that Tesla is the currently the strongest player to take the biggest market in history, autonomous driving with electric cars and Ford isn't.
- loceng 9y ago
  Everything is exponential. If most people are a 1 or 2, and Elon is a 3 - that's a huge lead/advantage that on an exponential scale puts him more than a little ahead.
panarky 9y ago
Just as Tesla revolutionized the car, they're now attempting to revolutionize the car factory. If they can reinvent "the machine that builds the machine", the sky is the limit. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSO1dnSbu_k https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSO1dnSbu_k If they fail, then the shorts will have some fun. But I wouldn't bet against Elon Musk even with long odds.
pulisse 9y ago
with lots of past success including getting ready to setup a colony on Mars How is that a "past success"?
- loceng 9y ago
  Good catch on the wording, thanks for pointing it out. To clarify, the past success part of the future colony on Mars is in the groundwork he has already laid with Tesla/Solar City, SpaceX, Boring Company -- all necessary technology for a proper foundation of a colony.