6 ms·
No. 3 million miles of observation. You can get a pretty exact and conservative estimate with a bayesian poisson process model. I don't have the time to run the
by coinjobber 9y ago
No. 3 million miles of observation. You can get a pretty exact and conservative estimate with a bayesian poisson process model. I don't have the time to run the numbers right now, but my guess is the posterior estimate that Uber's fatal accident rate is higher than a human's is >90%, even if taking the human accident rate as a starting prior.
- jfoutz 9y agoI thought Uber had to have a human take over every 13 miles. It’s more like 10 miles of observation 300,000 times. Or rather an attentive human can be 50x better than average.
- btrettel 9y agoI'd be very interested in seeing the math if you have the time later.
- gpm 9y ago95% - erring on assuming Uber has driven more miles than they probably have. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16621118 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16621118
- comex 9y agoHmm; if I understand correctly, in that link you show that if Uber’s AI has the same risk of killing people as a human driver, then the prior probability of an accident occurring when it did or earlier was 5%. That’s significant, but it’s not the same measure as the probability that the AI has a higher risk (which would require a prior distribution).